D Gukesh or R Praggnanandhaa? Who will win Tata Steel Chess 2025? Scenarios explained

The 87th edition of the Tata Steel Chess Tournament in Netherlands has reached its 13th and final round and appears set for a thrilling conclusion on Sunday. Reigning world champion Gukesh Dommaraju and Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa currently share the lead, and both youngsters have a strong chance to become only the second Indian after the legendary Viswanathan Anand to win the prestigious annual tournament.

World No 3 Gukesh is one of only two players in the ongoing tournament to not lose a single match so far, the other being Chinese Grandmaster Wei Yi, who had won the tournament last year. Yi, however, finds himself at the sixth spot after collecting just one win in 12 rounds, while Gukesh has had five wins so far.

Praggnanandhaa’s victory over Russian-Serbian GM Alexey Sarana in Round 12 on Saturday allowed him to go level with Gukesh, who was held to a stalemate by Dutch GM Jorden van Foreest. Meanwhile, Arjun Erigaisi registered his first win of the tournament after a series of draws and losses, defeating Nodirbek on Saturday to currently sit at the 12th spot out of 14 players.

With the final round currently underway in the Dutch town of Wijk aan Zee, 40 kilometres northwest of the capital Amsterdam, we take a look at the some of the scenarios that await Gukesh and Praggnanandhaa:

Both Gukesh and Praggnanandhaa win

Should Gukesh defeat compatriot Erigaisi in Round 13 and Praggnanandhaa achieve a similar result against German Grandmaster Vincent Keymer, both players will finish tied on 9.50 points. In that case, a blitz tie-break will be played between the two players to determine the champion of the 2025 edition.

One of the two wins, the other draws/loses

Both players are tied on 8.50 points at the moment, meaning if one of them wins and the other is held to a draw or resigns, then the tournament will have an undisputed champion. Whether it’s Gukesh or Pragg is something that remains to be seen, and will be confirmed later on Sunday.

Both Gukesh and Praggnanandhaa draw/lose

If both players end up drawing their respective games, then the winner of the 2025 Tata Steel Chess tournament will be an Indian – just that Gukesh and Praggnanandhaa will then play out a blitz tie-break to determine the champion.

A tie-break will also be played out if both players lose their game. The only difference is that Nodirbek could join them and make it a three-way tie-break if he defeats Pentala Harikrishna in the final round on Sunday as he currently is third in the Masters standings with 7.5 points.