FIDE Grand Swiss scenarios: How Arjun Erigaisi, the only Indian fighting for Candidates spot in Open section, can qualify

FIDE Grand Swiss 2025, which offers two spots to the Candidates 2026 tournament, is set for a thrilling finish as five players are in a joint-lead, and nine players are in the joint-second position, with just one more round to go. American Grandmaster Hans Niemann defeated India's R Praggnanandhaa in Round 10 on Sunday, which was the only decisive game on the top-nine boards, as he joined Alireza Firouzja, Anish Giri, Vincent Keymer, and Matthias Bluebaum in the lead with a 7/10 score.

Arjun Erigaisi, Abhimanyu Mishra, Andy Woodward, Nihal Sarin, Nodirbek Abdusattorov, Awonder Liang, 2023 FIDE Grand Swiss winner Vidit Gujrathi, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave and Yu Yangyi are in the joint-second position with 6.5 points each. However, only Indian Grandmaster Erigaisi and American chess prodigies Mishra and Woodward are in FIDE Candidates contention from the second-placed players apart from the leaders.

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World champion D Gukesh defeated Gabriel Sargissian in the penultimate round at FIDE Grand Swiss 2025, but he is nowhere close to the top. However, being the world champion, Gukesh doesn’t need to qualify for the Candidates.

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Praggnanandhaa was also ruled out of the FIDE Candidates’ race at the Grand Swiss in Samarkand after losing to Niemann. However, he is leading the FIDE 2025 Circuit standings and can qualify from there.

Arjun Erigaisi, the only Indian fighting for Candidates spot

The 22-year-old Arjun Erigaisi from Warangal is the only Indian Grandmaster in the Open section who is still in contention.

The chess handle @chess_insights has provided a very clear understanding of who can still qualify for the Candidates on X. As per Prakhar Sinha, who runs the handle @chess_insights, Alireza Firouzja, Anish Giri, Vincent Keymer, Hans Niemann, Matthias Bluebaum, Arjun Erigaisi, Abhimanyu Mishra and Andy Woodward are the only eight players who will fight for the top two spots at the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025 on Monday.

Before proceeding any further with the scenarios, here’s a look at the Round 11 matches for these players.

It’s quite possible that many players would end up with the same points after the final round, in which tie-breaks will be used. In Grand Swiss, the first tie-break will be determined by the tie-break rating of a player. The tie-break rating is calculated by taking an average of all the top 10 opponents that a player has played against in the 11 rounds.

We break down with @chess_insights on who has the best chance of making it to @FIDE_chess Candidates 2026 from the Grand Swiss 2025 in both open and women's event. pic.twitter.com/tlRv7XVIOc

— ChessBase India (@ChessbaseIndia) September 14, 2025

As per Prakhar, Bluebaum and Firouzja are the only two players who have their destiny in their hands. Whoever wins between them will qualify for the Candidates.

How Erigaisi could qualify for Candidates 2026 from FIDE Grand Swiss

For Arjun to qualify, the Indian will need to have a lot of results in his favour. Here are the conditions that he will need to qualify.

2. Arjun will have to beat Vincent Keymer

3. Hans Niemann vs Anish Giri needs to end in a draw

4. Abhimanyu Mishra must not win vs Vidit Gujrathi

In any other scenario, Arjun Erigaisi would not qualify for the Candidates 2026 from the Grand Swiss tournament.

In the women’s section, R Vaishali and Kateryna Lagno are in a joint-lead with 7.5 points each. The Indian GM Vaishali can qualify for the Candidates with a win. She can progress after a draw and a loss as well, but other results must go in her favour.