Australian Open 2019: Novak Djokovic faces favourable path to quarter-finals despite fair share of surprises in men's draw

It’s only been a month-long off-season, but it feels like a millennium. There are very few situations in the sports world more paradoxical than the tennis calendar — on the one hand it seems way too long, and on the other, the December break seems to stretch on for eternity. [caption id=“attachment_5873051” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Novak Djokovic began his final preparations for the Australian Open on a high note, thrashing Andy Murray in a practice match. Reuters[/caption] Fortunately though, there’s always light at the end of the tunnel. The first Major of the year, the Australian Open, is bright, summery, fresh and fun, and both the players and the fans seem to be at their best during the tournament. For the past few years, the Australian Open has also been arguably the most competitive of all the Slams — even matches between relative unknowns seem to take on gladiatorial proportions Down Under. The men’s draw announced on Thursday seems set to continue that tradition, as it has thrown up a string of interesting matchups from start to finish. Here’s a look at how the four quarters are likely to unfold: First quarter: The presumptive favorite gets a curveball or two Novak Djokovic had been flying high in the second half of 2018, winning two Slams in a row, and before the Paris Masters, he seemed set to establish another 2015-like reign of unchallenged supremacy. But his last three tournaments have seen him face unexpected defeats, and his loss to Roberto Bautista Agut in Doha this year would’ve given hope to the rest of the field. The rest of the field will need more than just hope though. Although Djokovic doesn’t have an easy draw — he will likely face Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the second round and Denis Shapovalov in the third — he still looks like the overwhelming favorite to reach the quarter-finals. Once there, he is expected to face Kei Nishikori, who is a punching bag for the Serb if ever there was one. Nishikori on his part has a few daggers in his path. He could face Ivo Karlovic — who is fresh off a final appearance in Pune — in the second round, Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third, and Fabio Fognini in the fourth. There is also a trio of talented youngsters in Nicolas Jarry, Hubert Hurkacz and Jaume Munar in this section, which makes it a veritable minefield of a draw for the Japanese. However, Nishikori just won a title last week after two years of final disappointments, and there’s nothing more valuable than rekindled self-belief. Quarter-final prediction: Novak Djokovic def. Kei Nishikori Dark horse: Nicolas Jarry 1st Round match to watch: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Martin Klizan Second quarter: Will the real Alexander Zverev show up? Alexander Zverev has been earmarked as the brightest light among the Next Gen players for so long now, it almost seems like he’s a Next Gen ‘veteran’. His victory at the ATP Finals in November seemed to have signaled his readiness for bigger challenges, but his performances at the Hopman Cup showed a return to his unthreatening Slam self — crumbling in the face of pressure and failing to keep up his intensity for longer than a set. The hamstring injury he picked up last week will not make things any easier, but he has been given a helping hand by the gods of fate. He starts against Aljaz Bedene, and will likely face Jeremy Chardy and Gilles Simon in his next two matches. His 2018 Melbourne conqueror Hyeon Chung is slated to be his fourth-round opponent, but considering Chung’s recent struggles it’s hard to imagine him reaching that far. At the other end of this section are two youngsters who made rapid strides on hardcourts in 2018 — Borna Coric and Dominic Thiem. Before they get to their blockbuster fourth-round matchup though, they will have to navigate some fairly tough challenges — Marton Fucsovics and Marco Cecchinato for Coric, and Benoit Paire and Lucas Pouille for Thiem. But all this is only with respect to the seeded players in the quarter. For a glimpse of the unseeded threats, you need to look no further than the mini-volcano that’s bubbling in Chung’s corner — Stan Wawrinka faces Ernests Gulbis in the first round, for a chance to meet the winner of the match between Nick Kyrgios and Milos Raonic in the second. If Gulbis and Kyrgios bring even 50% of their best tennis to the court, we could be in for a carnival at the start of the tournament itself. Quarter-final prediction: Coric def. Wawrinka Dark horse: Gilles Simon 1st round match to watch: Nick Kyrgios vs Milos Raonic Third quarter: Teeming with throwbacks Last year’s finalists, Roger Federer and Marin Cilic, are expected to meet as early as the quarter-finals this year. But that’s not the only throwback element in this quarter; there’s also five-time runner-up Andy Murray (whose comeback refuses to pick up steam), Denis Istomin (who made headlines by shocking Djokovic in the 2017 second round), and Fernando Verdasco (who gave Rafael Nadal all he could handle in the 2009 semifinal). Federer starts against Istomin, but you expect him to sail smoothly into the fourth round where he could face rising Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas. Cilic begins his campaign against the moody Bernard Tomic, but could face considerably tougher assignments after that: Andrey Rublev in the second round, Verdasco in the third, and one of Murray, Roberto Bautista Agut or Karen Khachanov in the fourth. Possibly the biggest point of interest in this quarter would be Murray’s form. Is he ready to compete for the Slams yet? How long before he gets back into the top 10? Judging by his pre-season form and fitness, the most likely answers to those questions are — 1. No and 2. Very. Quarter-final prediction: Federer def. Khachanov Dark horse: Andrey Rublev 1st round match to watch: Andy Murray vs Roberto Bautista Agut Fourth quarter: Rafael Nadal and his mission to last a full hardcourt tournament In 2018, Rafael Nadal competed in only three hardcourt tournaments, and retired hurt in two of them. Maintaining his fitness on the unforgiving surface has become something of a challenge for the Spaniard in this later career period, so his first objective would be to remain injury-free for the entire duration of the tournament. That could be tougher than it sounds, because Nadal has already had another rendezvous with retirement at the start of 2019; he had to pull out of the Brisbane tournament due to a thigh strain. And even if he does make it to Melbourne in prime condition, his draw seems designed to wear him down by the quarters. He has fairly innocuous opponents in the first two rounds, but could possibly face Aussie sensation Alex de Minaur in the third. If he gets past the local favorite, he is slated to meet one of Kyle Edmund or Diego Schwartzman in the fourth round, and Kevin Anderson or John Isner after that. De Minaur is one of six Australians in this quarter; for some reason, a majority of the home hopes (there are only 11 in the entire tournament) have been jammed into this tiny section of the draw. Of those six, De Minaur and Matthew Ebden seem to have the best chance of making a splash, but they would both likely have to face off against Nadal. That’s not a comforting thought for the local fans. Also in this quarter is the returning Tomas Berdych, who is coming off a final appearance in Doha. The Czech may be 33 now, but Melbourne has always been a good hunting ground for him — so count him out at your own peril. Quarter-final prediction: Nadal def. Anderson Dark horse: Alex de Minaur 1st round match to watch: Kyle Edmund vs Tomas Berdych Semi-final predictions: Novak Djokovic def. Borna Coric, Roger Federer def. Rafael Nadal Final prediction: Novak Djokovic def. Roger Federer