Following another early Wimbledon loss, will Nadal ever catch Federer?

A few years ago Jack Nicklaus commented on Tiger Wood’s chase to overtake Nicklaus’ record of 18 Grand Slam titles. He said that while he believed Tiger would eventually overtake him, he thought the media was silly in making it a forgone conclusion. He said a person’s life and an athlete’s body have their own plans. He mentioned that Tiger now had a wife and kids and was a “family man” which changes things and that an athlete’s body eventually catches up with him. I don’t think the great Nicklaus foresaw Tiger’s sex scandal that shook the sports world or the multiple surgeries Tiger’s battered body has gone through, but he turned out to be right. Since 2008 Tiger Woods hasn’t won a Grand Slam and is stuck at 14, four behind Nicklaus’ 18. [caption id=“attachment_1599821” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] It will not be easy for Rafael Nadal to break Roger Federer’s record. AFP[/caption] Rafael Nadal matched Pete Sampras last month by winning a mind boggling ninth French Open and thereby moving to a tie for second all time with 14 Grand Slam titles. Suddenly one of the most interesting stories in tennis has become “the chase to reach 17”- Roger Federer’s record. The Chase is a gripping story for many reasons: - Very few thought Nadal would overtake Roger in number of slams won - Roger is still playing the game. - The record Nadal would be breaking is held by one of Nadal’s greatest rivals - It would put an end to the useless and time wasting GOAT debate once and for all. - Even to Roger fans like myself, Nadal’S passion is endearing, you can’t help but like the guy and watching him fight his way to the record is captivating. But before we start playing the Spanish National Anthem we still need to ask the question “if” and not “when”. It is not a guarantee by any measure. Nadal’s loss at Wimbledon yesterday is his third disappointing loss in a row at the Championships. His last Australian Open win came in 2009 and he has just two US Open titles to his name (although the last one did come in 2013). So all he has to do to catch Roger is win three more French Open titles right? That would mean winning in 2015, 16 and 17. If you think that is guaranteed then you have more faith in his knees and body than Uncle Tony. To put it into perspective, Roger’s last three Grand Slams were Wimbledon 2009, Australian Open 2010 and Wimbledon 2012. That is spread over a three-year span. In 2009 when Roger won the French Open (his 14th slam) he was about a month shy of becoming 28 years old. How old was Nadal when he won his 14th? You guessed it- 28 There is a reason the final few slams for most players take longer than the first few. Injuries cause you to miss tournaments and impact your abilities, age slows you down and younger, stronger and fitter players come on to the scene making each match and tournament more difficult than it was in years past. What may make it even more challenging is if Roger shocks us all by winning another slam and raising the target to 18. My prediction- Nadal doesn’t beat 17, at best he equals it. Either way, there isn’t going to be a more exciting story to follow in tennis over the next few years than his chase of the magic number.