American runners are slowing down: What an exhaustive new research study has found

The World Championships in Athletics organised by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) in London, from 4 to 13 August, saw the US come third in the  women’s marathon, and 16th in the  men’s marathon. The overall race participation and performance of US runners on the world and Olympic stage belies a deeply disturbing trend, brought forth by the latest research. American marathon runners, on an average, have never been slower — across gender, and distance. The only ones not slowing down are the top elite runners. The research study, which claims to be among the most exhaustive ones tracking running race results, analysed 34 million race results from 28,732 different races, across distances of 5 km, 10 km, half marathons, and full marathons, from 1996 to 2016. Released on a Danish website — RunRepeat.com on 4 July — the study was led by Jens Jakob Andersen, a former competitive runner and statistician from Copenhagen Business School; and Ivanka Andreeva Nikolova, who holds a PhD in Mathematical Analysis. [caption id=“attachment_4025879” align=“alignnone” width=“825”]  Runners during the 2016 New York City Marathon. Image via Reuters[/caption] The study also found that the intuitive answers for the slowdown circulated via hearsay, blogposts, and forum comments, are far from true: No, the increase in proportion of women participants; increase in percentage of people with inappropriate fitness level who just walk the race; or just an increase in new participants who are slower than others — are not valid arguments. “The persistence of those myths is due to the fact that they make sense,” says Nikolova. The data does show that women are slower and the number of female participants is on the rise; older people are generally slower, and the average age of participants is increasing; and that the total number of participants is rising. “But when we dig deeper, the reality is a bit more complex,” she adds. The data showed that the slowdown is at every level — fast runners, slow runners, everyone is slowing down. Moreover, the slow participants are slowing down at a much higher rate than the faster ones, such that the fast ones cannot compensate. “A very real possibility is that the rise in the number of participants is a downside for the faster runners,” the study states. When Mindy Solkin, 62, a running coach based in Philadelphia started running 39 years ago, she trained properly, and was committed to the sport. But now, she says, she sees a rise in social or lifestyle runners, whose focus is not fitness or competition. “There is apathy about proper training with mostly the newer runners. They just don’t take it seriously,” she says. “It’s not like they are being mean about it, it’s just that that’s not what they are there for.” The research also showed that the rise in the numbers of female participants has less effect (46 percent), in the slowing of pace than the decrease in the speed of men (54 percent). “This is so because men are becoming slower much faster than the number of women participants is rising,” the researchers state in their study.

The average rate of slowdown for the slowest men over the last 17 years has been 21.2 percent, while for women it is 13.4 percent. The fastest male participants have slowed down on average with 9.94 percent over the last 17 years, while females are at 9.87 percent. The researchers say that any comment on the reasons for men slowing down at faster rate than women would be speculation. “It could be that women generally prepare more; or that they are more health conscious than men, mostly because of pregnancy and motherhood.” The study estimates that if this trend continues, female and male runners will have the same pace by 2045. But they are quick to note that “due to physiological differences between men and women, this is not likely to happen.”

“Women are mostly shorter, with shorter legs. Our centre of gravity is lower, so to avoid injury we take smaller strides. Women also consider the possibility of osteoporosis. Also, our legs are heavier compared to men with similar height and weight. Our lung capacity is also different and so on,” explains Nikolova. People I talked to say that the physiological differences play smaller role here, because it differs from person-to-person, rather than gender-defined. For example, a recreational runner since 2007, 58-year-old Mary Post finds summer heat and exercise-induced-asthma as her biggest struggles. She dropped back in her age group in Fremont, Ohio’s Camelback 10K run in which she came first the year before, because it was extremely hot. “I accept my limitations. I know I do not perform well in the summer heat so I do my best and take it into account,” she says. Like everything, marathon running is a neat combination of training, preparation, skill and the cards you are dealt as body shape and genetics, believes Nikolova. Post agrees, saying that many factors like weather conditions, outdoor temperature, time of day, nutrition, sleep, hydration, energy level, stress etc come into play. As for social prejudice or negativity that women might feel on the ground, Solkin tells of the time in 1998 when she was taking classes to earn her Level 2 certificate from USA Track and Field, which is a national governing body for the sports. She felt disrespected by fellow colleagues because she was one of the few female coaches at the time, and because she was developing her own business by becoming a club coach, and not a high school or college sports teacher, or training competitive or elite runners which was a more popular choice then. “It was discouraging at the time, I did not appreciate it,” she says. “But I am an entrepreneurial person, so I did not let it stop me. I moved forward,” she says, taking credit for starting club coaching in America which did not exist before (it is coaching for people who are not in school, and aren’t professionals, but fitness runners). Nikolova says that linear trends have their inherent limitations; and are most useful for only short to mid-term predictions. “For the long term they provide interesting considerations and thinking points, but shouldn’t be taken too seriously – nothing in life goes up or down forever.” With regards to the myth that there is an increase in people with inappropriate fitness level who just walk the race, the proportion of “runners” finishing slower than with the average walking pace is rather consistent over the last 16 years.

While participation of old people is increasing, Solkin says she find running a very inclusive sport age-wise. “The beauty of the sport of running is that there are age groups. I never felt as a runner or a coach that my clients’ age or mine, was a barrier.” Post has slowed down over the years in the 26.2 marathon and longer miles. “Distance takes a toll on my body because muscles break down, legs fatigue and there is a high risk for injury,” she says, “This can be disheartening… It’s so important to listen to your body.” The study found the slowdown is directly correlated with an increase in obesity, diabetes, hypertension and average annual medical expenditure. However, these are just correlations, and the study points out: “It is important to note the lack of evidence for a causal relationship”.

“If you are obese, and you want to lose weight, it is best to start with walking,” says Solkin. People should gradually increase their speed, or there are high chances of causing injury, she adds. To keep fit and healthy, Post runs both outdoors and on an indoor running track; rides a Townie 7-speed bike; works out on an elliptical; rides an indoor recumbent bike; lift weights and if at a hotel in the winter, she will run on a treadmill. In general, from the people I talked to, I found the running community to be positive and optimistic. “I guess statistics for speed may go to the wayside as statistics for effort rise,” says Post. When asked about what she thinks about the research study’s findings debunking the common assumptions behind the slowdown, Post says, it does not faze her one bit, because she “commend(s) any person who gets up off the coach and out the door! I am not concerned with speed nor am I judgmental at all.” “We need to give credit to the runners doing the actual running as it is not an easy sport,” she adds.