India needs sharp pragmatism in Myanmar as elections set stage for Junta

Post-coup Myanmar holds elections that consolidate military power, legitimising the junta and enabling China to expand influence. India faces a complex strategic environment, balancing relations with the military, pro-democracy forces, and ethnic rebels like the Arakan Army. Historically, India’s twin-track diplomacy engaged both civilian governments and generals to protect strategic interests and counter China’s influence. Today, New Delhi must adopt sharper pragmatism—engaging rebels through economic and logistical incentives while maintaining influence over the junta via military aid and intelligence sharing. With elections legitimising generals, India must leverage all negotiating tools, including hard power, to secure regional stability and protect the Northeast frontier.