Yeddyurappa is in for an uphill battle in Shimoga this election

By A Ram Babu

A nerve-racking contest awaits BS Yeddyurappa in Shimoga parliamentary constituency, which he is trying to bag after a gap of two decades. Last time, he lost it to Congress nominee KG Shivappa and presently his son BY Raghavendra (BJP) is the sitting MP.

Out of eight Assembly segments in the parliamentary constituency, the Congress is holding four, the BJP three and the JD(S) one.

Yeddyurappa is straining every nerve to capture the Lok Sabha seat so that he can stake his claim for a cabinet berth - as per reported tacit understanding with the national leadership of the BJP - in the central government, if Narendra Modi becomes the prime minister. But, for public consumption, his return to the party, after a 14-month estrangement following an unceremonious ouster, was supposed to be unconditional.

After he was forced out of the BJP, he had fielded candidates from the newly launched Karnataka Janatha Party (KJP) in the Assembly elections held last year (2013) and the party had considerably cut into the vote bank of the BJP, which adversely affected the party’s chances. His KJP did not do well at all, but managed to play spoilsport for the BJP by securing a vote share of about 10 percent.

It was Modi who is said to have facilitated his easy re-entry into the BJP in the hope that his clout, particularly among voters from his powerful Lingayat community, could result in a good number of seats from Karnataka. However, LK Advani was against taking him back in the party because of loss of credibility following his indictment by the Lokayukta Report on illegal mining.

The reasoning behind Advani’s resistance was that things have changed a lot since the last Assembly elections in 2008 when Yeddyurappa could hold considerable sway over people even from outside his community. It is generally felt that the aura of respectability he enjoyed before 2008 elections - leading up to the BJP projecting him as chief minister candidate - is now glaringly absent.

One thing is for sure: since he took up the reins as the first BJP chief minister in the South in May 2008, public opinion about him has undergone a sea change.

Political analysts see his eager re-entry into the party and the BJP’s hearty welcome to him as a classic example of opportunism of the worst kind in politics.

This is because during those critical days following his ouster from the BJP, Yeddyurappa angrily declared that he would destroy the party that he was associated with for 40 years and teach the leadership a lesson. His repeated outbursts against the BJP, along with his hobnobbing with the Congress through alleged secret deals with the rival party, were then interpreted as end of the road for him in the BJP.

TV images of all the drama over his arrest (such as supporters protecting him from public view by covering him with blankets and stage-managed ambulance episodes) have adversely affected the credibility of the former chief minister. The serious charges of corruption including illegal land de-notification for pecuniary advantage have negatively impacted his public image even among those constituting his traditional vote-bank in North Karnataka.

To garner votes in Shimoga, the Congress and the JD(S) are harping more on the alleged misdeeds of the BJP candidate than voicing about how they could make a difference to the lives of voters if they won. Idigas and Lingayats form large chunks of voters in the constituency.

Congress nominee Manjunath Bhandary and JD(S) candidate Geetha Shivarajkumar are first-timers to Lok Sabha elections. While Bhandary enjoys good reputation for his interpersonal skills and has an enviable rapport with higher-ups in the party, Geetha Shivarajkumar depends heavily on her highly influential family background: she is not only the daughter of the late chief minister S Bangarappa (he represented Shimoga four times in Lok Sabha and had a loyal mass following from the Idiga community) but she is also the daughter in-law of one the greatest Indian film personalities, Rajkumar, who was known for his unmatched mass adulation during his lifetime.

Strangely, both the Congress and the JD(S) have minor setbacks to grapple with: while Manjunath Bhandary is treated as a non-local (he is said to run his businesses from Mangalore) Geetha Shivarajkumar is seen as a rival to her own brother Kumar Bangarappa, former minister, who was an aspirant for a Congress ticket. His supporters are sore over his not being nominated by the party to contest from Shimoga. According to insiders, the Congress’ decision against fielding Kumar Bangarappa was based on the possibility of vote-split in the Idiga stronghold of the Bangarappa family.

The Congress nominee hails from the Bunt community whose population in the constituency is very thin. Bunts dominate in only one Assembly segment – Byndoor. Here too, he is not very popular.

The JD(S) is determined not to take any chances and is taking the electoral challenge seriously as was evident from its frequent road shows organized all over the constituency. While the film stars have been working tirelessly in the constituency in support of Geeta’s candidature, she seems to be content with invoking the blessings of her politician-father and her legendary father in-law who were held high in public esteem.

Yeddyurappa is trying his best to campaign dignifiedly by desisting from his typically brash criticism of rival parties. Fearing backlash from voters and supporters, he has made a strange appeal recently to mainstream media establishments, particularly TV channels, not to use the word “corrupt” while referring to him in panel discussions, but use only the word “accused” since courts have not pronounced their final verdict. His contention is that he is entitled to presumption of innocence until proven guilty.