Win-win for Indo-Pak: Modi-Sharif fixed match will end in a draw

Now that Nawaz Sharif has not only accepted the invitation to attend Narendra Modi’s inauguration but has also landed in India, the Modi government is set for a dream launch.

The meeting between Modi and Sharif will not be a perfunctory one; it will end in an announcement that defines a road map for Indo-Pak relations.

The reason that it will not be a polite, social meeting is the fact that both these leaders have too much at stake to go back to their critics without some semblance of a trophy.

To a beleaguered Sharif, the upside of being able to return to Pakistan with promises of a  relationship with India that will see more economic activity between the two countries and better people to people interaction and roadmap leading to a safer, more stable sub-continent is the only way he can justify the trip to India. If he goes back to Pakistan empty-handed, all he would have done is to make Modi look good.

For Modi’s supporters, the promise of a better relationship with Pakistan will, to some extent, help challenge the media image of a Muslim-unfriendly Modi. While he will still have to address the issues of Muslims in India, reaching out to Pakistan will divert attention to the Muslims outside India – and this will include the cash-rich Middle Eastern countries. Modi, the diplomat and the statesman, would be born, not just Modi, the Prime Minister. Of equal importance is the fact that any announcement of discussions with Pakistan on contentious issues that is made tomorrow will show Modi as a man of speed, coming as it will at the end of the first day in office.

What could we see? Nothing significant or clear on issues such as security and terrorism, Kashmir, Afghanistan, river water, the Siachen glacier, Sir Creek and Rann of Kutch disputes. These are too complex for easy or quick resolution.

But we could hear announcements on trade across the LoC/border, moves to ease religious pilgrimages, enhanced cultural interaction including Bollywood and TV, easing of visas for tourism, heightened attention to the issues of divided families and fast-tracking cases of civilians in custody in each other’s jails.

Some announcement will be made tomorrow. And, at the end of the announcement, both Modi and Sharif will win. This is a fixed match with a fixed result – if it wasn’t, Sharif wouldn’t have made it to India.