Will 18% of UP's population decide UP's next government?

Uttar Pradesh: ‘Among equals, vote for the winning candidate,’ has been the psyche of the Muslim voter in Uttar Pradesh — which makes up 18 percent of the state. Out of 403 assembly constituencies, Muslims have the ability to influence voting in 130 constituencies. If feedback from the field are any indication, Mulla Mulayam (the title Mulayam Singh Yadav earned due to his bonhomie with Muslims) will remerge as the messiah of the community which feels ‘fooled’ by the Congress and ‘ignored’ by Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The BSP is facing the heat of anti-incumbency in general and particularly from Muslim leaders who deserted Mulayam Singh for Mayawati, after the former embraced Kalyan Singh. Now, they are either back with the Samajwadi Party (SP) or have floated their own parties. On the face of it, the BSP has become inclusive over the years. The party has a Muslim face in Naseemuddin Siddiqui, Behenji’s trusted man who is responsible for devising strategies to galvanise the Muslim vote. In the current elections, Mayawati’s party gave 85 Muslims candidates tickets, next to only the backward classes (113) and the Dalits (88). “This is because she gauged that Muslims would not vote for her. The only option she had, was to give tickets to Muslim candidates,” says Ilyas Azmi, BSP rebel. The only community the BSP empowered or supported is the Dalit, says Azmi. “BSP has never promised anything to Muslims. So, there is no question of betrayal. She is fine with or without the Muslim vote,” he adds. Azim was formerly with the BSP and quit to form his own party, the Rashtriya Inquilaab Party, formed just two months before the elections. [caption id=“attachment_216563” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“The BSP is facing the heat of anti-incumbency in general and particularly from Muslim leaders who deserted Mulayam Singh. Naresh Sharma/Firstpost”]  [/caption] Despite the image-makeover and much written about social engineering formula, Muslims at large perceive BSP as ‘chamaron ki party’ (party of scheduled castes). “In Uttar Pradesh, Muslims are divided into 68 castes and sub-castes. The BSP declared only 35 of them as other backward classes or OBCs. What about the rest?” asks Dr Mohammad Sajjad, assistant professor, Contemporary History, Aligarh Muslim University. “If BSP announces a scheme for Dalits or OBCs, then Muslims falling in these categories will benefit. But there is nothing specifically for Muslims,” he adds. Mayawati’s announcement of a Rs 45 crore grant for modernisation of madrassas and her letter to the PM — demanding reservation in education institutions and government jobs for the state’s Muslims — are seen as last-minute attempts to garner Muslim votes. “Ten years is a time long enough to know who can deliver what,” says Dr Sajjad. There is no flagship scheme or program for Muslims on the basis of which Mayawati can demand the community’s vote. Dr Khan Mohammad Atif, retired professor, Lucknow University, sums up the way Muslims perceive 10 years of BSP rule. “Mayawati talks about Kshatriya-Vaishya-Muslim bhai chara (communal harmony). Reality is that while she treats Kshatriya and Vaishya, as family, Muslim remains the chaara (fodder)." Therefore, except for 10-15 percent of the traditional share, BSP stands to lose a considerable chunk of votes from the community. And the BSP’s loss will be the SP’s gain. The Congress will be the second biggest gainer of Muslim vote after the SP. This is mainly because in the recent past, the Grand Old party has upset Muslims on more than one occasion. They don’t look to be in a mood to forgive. The Batla House encounter of 2008 and the police detention of Muslim boys from the Okhla area (Delhi) and Azamgarh district (eastern Uttar Pradesh) earned the community a bad name. “Things changed when P Chidambaram became the home minister and police caught the real culprits (non-Muslims). It partially removed the black spot from the community. But there is a long way to go,” says Dr Zafarul Islam, president, All India Muslim Majlise-E- Mushawarat, an umbrella body of Muslim organisations. Non- implementation of the Sachar Committee report has also irked the community. It has reinforced the belief that a backward Muslim is in the Congress’ interest. It is akin to diagnosing the disease but falling short of treating it. “The discrimination against Muslims in government policies is a reality. “The government talks of madrasas when the community is in need of schools,” says Dr Abusaleh Shariff, former member- secretary, Sachar Committee. Congress’ announcement of sub-quota within quota for OBC Muslims has got a mixed response. Some see it as an attempt which is too little, too late. “Why should we take a pie from someone else’s share? What is our right should be given to us,” says Maulana Ashraf Kichhouchhavi of All India Ulema and Mashaikh Board, an organisation, having the backing of the Barelvi sect. Others believe that the move will add to the party’s tally of the Muslim vote. How much, is the question. “It is bound to tilt votes in favor of the Congress,” says Dr Atif. He adds that more than the percentage of reserved seats, what is important is that the Congress has for the first time spoken openly for the community. Further, what might divert a sizeable chunk of Muslim vote to SP rather than Congress is the perceptible view on the ground that the later is not in a position to form a government on its own. At best, the Congress can aid in government formation. On its part, SP is walking the extra mile to win-back the community. It has demanded proportionate reservation for Muslims, even if it means amending the constitution. It has also announced free power supply to weavers (more than half of whom are Muslims). Azam Khan, the old Muslim face who had quit the party over differences with party chief Mulayam Singh, is back in the fold of the party after ironing them out. In addition to Khan, the SP has quite a line-up of Muslim faces in the All-India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) member Kamal Farooqi and Shahi Imaam of the Jaama Masjid. In the Batla House encounter, too, the SP has got an issue to take advantage of. It is the only national party which has demanded a judicial probe in the encounter. If elected to power, whether the SP will order an enquiry or not, is a different matter.