Why the BJP is losing the battle of public perceptions

In an elaborate defence of the BJP’s disruptionist tactics in Parliament, Yashwant Sinha accused the media of being “one-sided” in holding the opposition alone responsible for the ruckus. He claimed that BJP leader Sushma Swaraj’s speech in parliament before walking out – which was part of the deal with the Congress to allow passage of the Finance Bill on Tuesday – was disrupted at the instigation of Sonia Gandhi.

He wrote in The Economic Times: “The observance of rules by the ruling-party members is far more important than by the other members of the House because it is the primary responsibility of the ruling party to ensure that Parliament functions.” He also said that the UPA government is in “deep coma” and “it is not the duty of the Opposition to provide it with life support.”

He is surely right in the latter part of the observation, but it is unlikely that the people of India will buy the argument fully. The problem is going to be one of perception. Thanks to daily TV coverage of parliament, what we saw was BJP and opposition members raising a ruckus every day, and we later saw Congress leaders talking about allowing parliament to function.

In other words, the public is more likely to think the BJP is the cause of the ruckus than the Congress.

Regardless of whether the BJP was driven to disrupt parliament by the Congress’ refusal to discuss embarrassing issues or allowing a vote on them, in the public eye the BJP is the guilty party here. So when the Congress goes to the people and asks – why elect people to parliament if they won’t let it function anyway? – it is the BJP that will come out looking foolish.

It is a matter of perception, and the BJP’s leadership seems to have no clue on how to remedy this. There is no strategy to corner the Congress in parliament, nor is there any coherent plan to ratchet up the political rhetoric outside parliament in a phased manner. As things stand, the BJP seems to be disrupting parliament without any political purpose. This the public will not forgive.

The only reason why the Congress is still in power is the BJP’s inability to cash in on the former’s mistakes, and the completely unconvincing way in which the latter has been conducting itself during the whole of UPA-2. The Congress was on the ropes, but the BJP was busy fighting itself or scoring self-goals.

Even assuming the parliamentary disruptions were necessary, can the BJP give even one reason why it thinks it is benefiting politically from it? If it can, it would at least be seen as part of a calculated strategy to occupy the entire opposition space. But, from the outside, it seems as if the disruption is unrelated to any specific political gain the party expects to reap from it. Disruptions as a regular way of life make no sense to a party that hopes to be in government next year.

What the BJP clearly needs is a strategy – and its divided leadership cannot provide it with one if each leader is going to have his own covert agenda. If we have Narendra Modi as an undeclared PM candidate, and a Rajnath Singh and an LK Advani and a Shivraj Singh Chauhan also as undeclared candidates, not to speak of Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley, one can’t see how the party can evolve a coherent plan to win the next elections.

In the absence of a leader, everyone in the BJP is playing his own game. We had Yashwant Sinha rooting for LK Advani recently, when earlier he had talked of Narendra Modi. We had Varun Gandhi batting for Rajnath Singh and Advani himself seeming to favour Shivraj Singh Chauhan. Among allies, we had the Shiv Sena talking of Sushma Swaraj one day and then moving back to a neutral position.

Strategy starts from having someone as leader who can articulate it. Strategic clarity comes from the top.

Sometimes, there is benefit in ambiguity. And this is the reason for not making Modi the official candidate as of now. There is the possibility that he will drive away allies even before the battle has begun.

But even here the decision must flow from strategic thinking.

If Modi is going to drive away allies, does it matter if he does so before or after the elections? And if this is the party’s overwhelming worry, why can’t it take a call on an alternative?

Either the party must have the courage to adopt Modi or abandon him in the leadership sweepstakes. The BJP cannot keep pretending that no decision needs to be taken till the last hour. For any strategy to work, it needs time and a clear plan of action.

The time has come for the BJP to choose who it wants to go with. One suspects that the party is disrupting parliament because its leadership has no common purpose. If it can agree on a leader, it can evolve a better strategy.

Nature abhors a leadership vacuum.