Why Kejriwal, AAP called off dharna against Delhi Police

Arvind Kejriwal may claim victory by calling off his two-day old agitation against Delhi Police, but two factors must have weighed in on him in taking this decision: (i) the strategic and security fallout of his agitation and (ii) the inevitability of an imminent police crackdown which might have taken place tonight itself.

Kejriwal’s anarchic street show close to the vicinity of Rajpath, the venue of the Republic Day parade and the main function, had already taken huge strategic overtones and was threatening to spiral out of control. The top political leadership as well as the strategic brass of the country was mulling over a decisive action against Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supporters.

This writer has learnt that Indian Army Chief General Bikram Singh, today conveyed to Union Cabinet Secretary Ajit Seth to do something immediately and ensure that the entire area currently occupied by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) workers is cleared.

The Army Chief is also understood to have warned the government that the army will not be responsible if Rs 8,000 crore worth of defence equipment, to be showcased during the Republic Day parade on Sunday, were to be damaged.

The chilling warning by the Army Chief may or may not have been conveyed to Kejriwal discreetly. He was looking for a face-saver which he got when two SHOs of Delhi Police were sent on leave (though not suspended, as Kejriwal demanded).

Kejriwal, who has shown that he is a far cleverer politician than his detractors believed, must have calculated that the clock was ticking for him to vacate the Rail Bhavan front lawns, the venue of his agitation which is at a stone’s throw from Rajpath.

Kejriwal must have known in the heart of his hearts that the government would be left with no option but to forcibly evict him and his supporters and clear the area.

The government would have proceeded with this extreme action tonight itself even if it were to be accused of indulging in a repeat of the 5 June, 2011 midnight police crackdown on yoga guru Baba Ramdev from New Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan.

In view of the upcoming Full Dress Rehearsal of the Republic Day parade on Thursday and the main event on Sunday, the UPA government could not afford to sit idle and leave the denouement to be choreographed by Kejriwal and company. The government could not have been oblivious to the fact that its first brush with the Army Chief’s warning was as tantalizingly close as 23 January, Thursday when Full Dress Rehearsal of the Republic Day parade is scheduled to take place.

As the name of the event makes it clear, the 23 January full dress rehearsal passes through the entire 8-km-long route between Rajpath and Red Fort with all tableaux, marching contingents and defence equipment just as it would do on the main day of the event on 26 January.

Usually the Full Dress Rehearsal parade commences at 9.50 am and ends at 12.30 pm. This means that the government has just about 36 hours from now to sanitize and secure the vast area.

This was not possible under the current circumstances with thousands of AAP supporters squatting on the arterial roads leading to Rajpath. The security and intelligence agencies usually require at least 72 hours for sanitizing the area.

Securing the parade venue and its vicinity is a humongous and time-consuming job wherein the security agencies not only scan every tree and shrub in the area but also have to painstakingly check all buildings and even the underground sewage systems.

The kind of anarchy that this writer saw at the Rail Bhavan in New Delhi and nearby areas today afternoon made such a security combing exercise impossible.

The Delhi Police warning to Kejriwal to vacate the premises by 22 January evening was actually a shield to lull him into complacency that no crackdown is in the works. But he was proven to be a wilier strategist. Kejriwal must have sensed the fact that the UPA government has to govern and would have no option but to bite the bullet.

That is why he chose to beat the retreat. But this retreat is only tactical. His eyes are set on the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.