Why it's time to disband the NDA. It's a waste of time

This is as good a time as any to send the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) packing. The alliance exists only in name, as the combine’s inability to decide even on a common presidential candidate to oppose Pranab Mukherjee attests. To be sure, this is not about the NDA alone. If the UPA were in the opposition, with no power or pelf to share, it would be the in same boat. The continuous problems the UPA has been having in reining in allies like Trinamool (and earlier, the Left) shows that even when you are in power, alliances are only fair-weather realities. The 2G scam happened because the Congress had no control over the DMK ministers’ decisions. Looking at the national electoral scene as a battle between fronts is thus completely misleading. There are no fronts; there are only post-poll marriages of convenience. In fact, it makes better sense to give a coalition a name after it is formed. Without the glue of power, coalitions are a waste of time. Here’s why. [caption id=“attachment_348133” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Parties in long-term alliances have to worry about their core voters.AFP”]  [/caption] First, state interests are becoming the driving factors in national politics. Whether it is Mamata Banerjee demanding a Bengal package, or a Mulayam Singh wanting a deal for Uttar Pradesh, national politics is no longer national. This means alliances are good only to the extent they are compatible at the state level. An NDA that works in Bihar may not work at the central level – since their interests may clash. The BJP unit in Bihar is less excited about Narendra Modi leading the party than party units elsewhere because it could end up breaking the state-level coalition. In Rajasthan or Madhya Pradesh, Modi may not be an issue for the state party. Mayawati is not making headway in other states despite having a large Dalit base to woo. She is trying to be a national figure even though her fortunes primarily relate to Uttar Pradesh. But the state-level Dalit parties have their own state-level agendas – a Ram Vilas Paswan in Bihar does not see synergies with Mayawati, just as the various Republican parties in Maharashtra can’t bear the thought of hitching up with one another. In this scenario, national alliances will be decided by who is opposing whom in your state. With Congress as his rival in Andhra, Chandrababu Naidu preferred the NDA. But with Jaganmohan Reddy becoming the real rival to beat, will Naidu prefer a Congress alliance now? In Bengal, neither the Left nor Mamata can align with the BJP easily. But if one group goes with the Congress, politically, the other will have to deal with either a Third Front or a BJP – covertly, if needed. The only implacable foe of the Left is the BJP, but the party has no presence in Bengal. Second, even at the state level, coalitions are becoming the norm. Till recently, we have been talking of regionalism reducing Lok Sabha elections to a bunch of state elections. But the fact is single-party state governments are becoming the exception rather than the rule, though the pattern changes from election to election. Barring Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh, almost every other major state either has a coalition government – or has had one in the last decade. J&K, Punjab, Bihar, Maharashtra, and Kerala have had long-running coalitions. Haryana, Karnataka, Orissa, Tamil Nadu and Assam have had at least one coalition in the last decade. Bengal had a Left coalition till last year. Andhra (and Telangana) may yet have one after the next election. The point: even state level parties are not stable. When this is the case, how is it possible to have stable national-level, long-term coalitions? Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK partnered with Vijay Kanth’s MDMK in the last assembly election. The next time he may partner with DMK and AIADMK may partner some of the smaller caste-based parties. When state-level alliances are so fluid, how can national alliances be solid? Third, parties in long-term alliances have to worry about their core voters. In Maharashtra, for example, both Congress and NCP have been in a long-term alliance, but this essentially limits their growth in the state. The same is the case with the BJP and Shiv Sena. When you are in an alliance, your core voter no longer sees how you are different from the others. Their enthusiasm drops. The Sena, for example, lost its Marathi USP by being in alliance with the BJP, a national party. Raj Thackeray is the heart-throb of the Marathi manoos. The BJP has lost its Hindutva card by playing second fiddle to the Sena, whose boss claims to be the Hindu Hriday Samrat. The NCP and Congress are not too differentiated. The sole reason for divergence is dynasty – Sharad Pawar and family know that in the Congress they can’t call the shots. Hence they broke off to create a regional party in Maharashtra. To rejuvenate their core voters, parties have to go it alone for a while even if it results in upsetting current alliances. This again makes for unstable national coalitions. Fourth, many parties are themselves an alliance of individual powers. Take NCP. It may be Sharad Pawar’s party, but Purno Sangma, despite being part of the NCP, does not listen to Pawar’s entreaties on the presidential poll. Reason: Sangma does not need Pawar in Meghalaya. Or take the DMK. Despite old man Karunanidhi being the nominal head, the party is essentially headed by his two sons – with MK Stalin controlling the northern group, and MK Alagiri the Madurai-based wing. After Karunanidhi, there will be two DMKs. In this scenario, where power is extremely diffused both at the state and central levels, pre-poll national alliances are more ornamental than a reality. There is no point in having an NDA or a UPA before an election. Individual parties have to build their numbers from the state upwards. Both BJP and Congress have to figure out alliances at the state level first, see where they reach in terms of overall numbers, and then cobble together a final alliance after looking at other parties’ numbers. The final coalition will always be a product of post-electoral arithmetic. Disbanding the NDA thus makes eminent sense. The time to rebuild it is after the next Lok Sabha poll.