Why DMK break with Congress is good news for Narendra Modi

The DMK’s decision to dump its Congress alliance in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls is one more piece of evidence that power - or even the prospect of power - is the key to alliances. While this does not mean M Karunanidhi is about to seek an entry into the NDA under Narendra Modi, the smell of defeat that hangs around the Congress party is driving away allies, giving the BJP hope for 2014. The unquestioned assertion till recently that Modi will find it impossible to get allies is dying a slow death. The media - barring a few prescient ones like MJ Akbar - has been consistently wrong on the BJP’s ability to attract allies, especially under Modi. This writer has always maintained that UPA and NDA are the result of pre- and post-poll power calculations, and not really about ideology. It is silly to believe that ideology alone is going to drive allies away (or bring in) from the BJP. The DMK’s rethink tells us why. [caption id=“attachment_1288907” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] PTI[/caption] We know that Karunanidhi was extremely unhappy with the Congress for not shielding A Raja and, worse, his own daughter Kanimozhi, from going to jail in connection with the 2G scam. But he didn’t quit the UPA as long as staying in power - or being close to the centre of power - was a realistic prospect. Now that the Congress has all the looks of a loser, he is willing to abandon it and look elsewhere for love and affection. It may not be the BJP, for Karunanidhi made it clear that the old love ended with Atal Behari Vajpayee, but who knows whether he will shift further depending on results in May 2014. In fact, the DMK is not the only party shuffling away from the Congress. Others are looking furtively left and right to see how they can cosy up to the BJP before the next election - their only anxiety being calculations on whether they will lose the Muslim vote in pursuit of the additional votes a BJP alliance can fetch. In Andhra Pradesh, both Chandrababu Naidu and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy are not averse to a BJP tieup, covert or overt. What they are looking for is a fig leaf of secularism. In Karnataka, BS Yeddyurappa is already game, but one can’t rule out Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (S) also getting into a wink-and-a-nod alliance - as it did in a recent Lok Sabha bypoll which it lost. In Tamil Nadu, J Jayalalithaa has always been considered a willing alliance partner for Modi, and the smaller parties – PMK, MDMK, etc – are waiting for cues from the bigger two parties to jump onto the bandwagon. They have the luxury of deciding after May 2014. In Assam, the AGP will probably team up with BJP, and post-poll one can’t rule out Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik working out an arrangement for outside support if the Modi-led BJP crosses the 200-mark. A tieup with Babulal Marandi in Jharkhand is a distinct possibility, too. In Haryana, the BJP is already in an alliance with Kuldeep Bishnoi, and an expansion of the alliance to include INLD cannot be ruled out. In Maharashtra and Punjab, the BJP has its strongest ideological allies in the Akali Dal and the Shiv Sena. It is, in fact, interesting that the Akali Dal’s Naresh Gujral is playing match-maker in the BJP’s search for allies. Gujral, according to The Economic Times , is the middleman talking to Naidu and others who are wary about a direct tieup. The irony is obvious: the Akali Dal is as “communal”, with its Sikh linkages, as the BJP, with its Hindu leanings, but this is how secularism works in India – through liberal doses of hypocrisy. However, we don’t have to look at the behaviour of political parties for affirming the notion that it is power that unites, and loss of power that separates. There is now ample evidence that Muslims in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan started shifting towards parties that looked like winning rather than sticking to the Congress. In Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party harvested its first large chunk of the Muslim vote , and in Rajasthan and MP, the BJP got a good share of Muslim votes. Muslims are getting rid of their fears that if they abandon Congress, they are going to be losers. As MJ Akbar wrote in The Times of India : “How did this shift (of the Muslim vote) take place despite the presence of Narendra Modi as BJP’s nominee for PM? Change invites change, albeit sometimes in imperceptible degrees. The key might be called the Patna moment. Every politician prepares for an important speech; but no one can prepare a speech for a sudden crisis. When bombs went off in the middle of Modi’s oration at the Gandhi maidan, his response became the acid test. He could have become provocative under pressure. Instead, he delivered his best lines. Impoverished Hindus, he said, had a choice — they could either fight poverty or they could fight Muslims. And impoverished Muslims could fight Hindus, or they could fight poverty. That summed up the mood of the nation, and calmed even those Muslims who did not want to believe what they heard.” Akbar is not saying Muslims will vote for Modi in 2014, but that they may not vote for the Congress too. In fact, if Modi gives a clear signal that he is prepared to address Muslim fears about the BJP, one cannot rule out a tectonic shift in Indian politics in 2014. For the BJP to win, Muslims merely have to stop voting Congress, even if they won’t vote for BJP. Power, as we have noted, has a way of changing perceptions.