Why BJP is struggling to win the seat that's home to Ayodhya

Faizabad: In Faizabad, a seat that is of high symbolic value for the BJP, the ‘Modi wave’ should have meant that the election outcome was a foregone conclusion. But BJP’s choice of candidate has meant that rebellion in its own ranks could end up hurting the party more than its political opponents.

Still smarting from the loss of the prestigious Ayodhya assembly constituency in 2012 state elections to the Samajwadi Party (SP) after having monopolised the seat for 25 years, the BJP is desperate to win big from Faizabad. Ayodhya is one of the five assembly seats in Faizabad.

But with the nomination of Lallu Singh, who was de-throned from Ayodhya after his five-term reign in 2012, to contest the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat the BJP has angered a powerful camp in the local unit as well as an influential section of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP). And this internal displeasure over the candidate is a widely known fact.

The chief priest of the make-shift Ram Janmabhoomi temple Satyendra Das says that even though it is Narendra Modi, BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, and not the local nominee who is dictating the voter’s choice, BJP’s victory in Faizabad is not a certainty.

“In Faizabad, it is a triangular fight between the BJP, the Congress and the Samajwadi Party. One cannot predict who will finally win. This is because in the BJP one section of the party, led by a former MP Vinay Katiyar, is against Lallu Singh. And that could have a negative impact…As far as candidates go, Congress Party’s Nirmal Khatri is considered a good candidate. People feel he has good intentions and that he has done some good work,” says Das.

Asked whether the prospect of Modi becoming the PM had revived hopes of building a Ram mandir on the disputed site in Ayodhya, Das said, “Ram janmabhoomi is a religious issue and to link it with politics is not appropriate. It will be decided by the Supreme Court. The government, no matter whose it is, will never be able to solve it. Parties may choose to play politics over it but to do so is not in the interest of Ram mandir… They (the BJP) have tried to make it an issue before and have failed. They cannot make it an issue again.”

Speaking specifically about Modi and whether he could play a role in the Babri Masjid-Ram Janmabhoomi dispute, Das said, “No. And the reason is that while the former BJP prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee enjoyed the confidence of the Muslim community, no section of Muslims have confidence in Modi. And this is a dispute between Hindus and Muslims.Therefore, we cannot say that Modi becoming the PM will result in a solution to the dispute through negotiations between the two communities. There is nothing to indicate that Modi becoming the PM will benefit the Ram mandir issue.” (On December 6, 1992, the 16th century Babri Masjid in Ayodhya was demolished by a violent crowd of kar sevaks in a rally that marked the culmination of a highly charged rath yatra by BJP leader LK Advani who spearheaded the movement to reclaim ‘Ram janmabhoomi”.)

The main issue in this election, says Das, is the development of Ayodhya. “The dispute has cost this town a lot. Despite it being a religious place, there is no saying when tensions will flare up, when curfew is imposed. And because of this tourism has been badly hit. There are no factories here, no infrastructure. The foreign tourists who come, return disappointed. No party has looked at Ayodhya from the point of view of development. It was been treated like an untouchable by all,” says the chief priest.

But there is a vocal minority that does not agree with chief priest’s analysis of the implications of a Modi sarkar on the Ram mandir issue.

VHP leader Brij Mohan Das says development is the biggest issue in this election and “ending corruption, price-rise and unemployment” is the focus of Modi’s campaign and that Modi becoming PM with a thumping majority will be a game-changer in the Babri Masjid-Ram Janmabhoomi issue.

“If Modi wins with more than 300 seats, a law will certainly be passed in Parliament and the Ram mandir will be entrusted to the Hindus,” he says.

Modi’s projection as PM, says Brij Mohan, has “livened up not just the BJP but the entire country.”

Downplaying the internal rift in the BJP over Lallu Singh’s candidature and the open opposition by senior VHP leader Ram Vilas Vedanti, who even threatened to stand as an Independent candidate if BJP didn’t reconsider its ticket to Singh, Brij Mohan said, “Lallu Singh has done good work in Ayodhya. Why else would he have been re-elected five times. He will win by a margin of 2.5 lakh this time…As far as Vedanti_ji_ goes, he is a sant and he should behave like one. It is unbecoming of a sant to squabble over tickets. He should accept the party’s decision. There is no rift anymore.”

Brij Mohan insists that for the first time in Faizabad people were rising above caste preferences to vote for Modi.

Local reporters say that while the BJP might win big in Ayodhya, its influence in the remaining four assembly constituencies that make up Faizabad remains uncertain. SP won four out of the five seats in the 2012 assembly election.

But how the 3.5 lakh Muslim community (size of electorate in Faizabad is 16 lakh) will vote could well decide Faizabad’s fate.

Disillusioned with SP’s communal politics of the last two years, majority of the Muslim community is expected to put their weight behind Congress candidate Nirmal Khatri, who is the sitting MP and also the Uttar Pradesh state Congress president.

Haji Mahboob Ahmad, a petitioner in the Babri Masjid case and president of a local organisation Anjuman Mahafiz Masjid-Wa-Maqabir & Muddai Babri Masjid, says the key issue in this election for the Muslim community is to “defeat Modi.”

“Price-rise and corruption no longer seem to be the issue. The only issue we hear about is ‘Modi’, ‘ensure victory for Modi’. But on what basis do we vote for him….As far the three nominees are concerned, the Congress candidate Nirmal Khatri is the most well-educated and he has a very clean image. If you talk of parties, this is not a state election. So we are left with Congress and the BJP and we have to decide which of these two can save the country. If a politician like Modi becomes the PM, the country will suffer more. His intentions are not good. He says one thing and does another,” says Ahmad.

While refusing to comment on which way the Muslim community would vote come 7 May, the local leader said, “I cannot answer this now. Modi is holding a rally in Faizabad on Monday. Post that rally, it will be made clear.”

The BJP is banking heavily on Modi’s final push through his rally on Monday to bolster Lallu Singh’s chances. How far Modi can swing the election in BJP’s favour by galvanising voters at the last minute, however, remains to be seen.

According to senior journalist V N Arora, it is the Congress that holds the ‘upper-hand’ in the electoral contest in Faziabad.

Says Arora, who served as the principal of Saket PG College, “Nirmal Khatri, who is contesting for the fifth time - he won in 1984, then lost twice and then won in 2009 – is one of the very few spotless politicians in the country. He means business. On the strength of his personality, even in this period of anti-incumbency which has been taken over by the Modi factor, he has the upper-hand here. Others, mainly the BJP and SP are fighting him.”

Having said that, Arora says, “infiltration of the Modi factor in the interiors” and the “break-down of caste-barriers” could benefit Lallu Singh, the BJP candidate. (The constituency comprises Dalits (4 lakh) Brahmins (2.5 lakh), Yadavs (1.5 lakh) and Muslims (3.5 lakh))

Arora makes the points that the BJP “has never won the Faizabad seat in the name of Ayodhya.”

“Even at the height of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement in 1989 it was CPI candidate Mitrasen Yadav (who is now SP’s candidate from Faizabad) who won the seat. In 1998, due to the charismatic personality of Atal Bihar Vajpayee, BJP for the first time won this constituency and it did so again in 1999. Ayodhya temple issue has nothing to do with elections. Earlier it was the caste-equations, then it was charisma of Vajpayee. And if again the BJP should win it will because of the Modi factor,” he points out.