Why a BJP government may be good for Rajiv Gandhi's killers

What’s the political significance of today’s Supreme Court verdict referring to a constitution bench, the question of freeing the convicts of the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case? Immediately, nothing, because the elections are over. When Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa and her government decided in February that the convicts would be released from jail after the apex court commuted the death sentence of three of them, it was seen as a electoral ploy. However, the issue hardly came up during the campaign - neither Jayalalithaa nor the DMK chief Karunanidhi made it a poll-plank. That it was not even a fringe issue was a harbinger of things to come. [caption id=“attachment_1410705” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Nalini (pictured above) is among those who could be released. PTI[/caption] The AIADMK can certainly laud itself for boldly deciding to release the convicts, and continue to target the DMK for doing practically nothing for them or their families when it was a UPA coalition partner. The public sympathy was with Jayalalithaa for her decision and there is no reason for it to change, because she has done everything at her disposal. She is likely to continue her stand that the convicts need to go home. The DMK will make some noise over the decision, perhaps comment even on the Supreme Court Chief Justice. Chief Justice P Sathasivam had raised some eyebrows when he told reporters in Coimbatore last week that he would give the verdict on the case before his retirement tomorrow. DMK chief Karunanidhi had taken exception to the judge’s statement and said that he shouldn’t have discussed the issue in public, particularly during the elections. The only other thing that the party can do is to sympathise with the family and make more noise as it has in the past. However, there will be pressure on the new government, if BJP comes to power because MDMK, its poll-ally in the state, is a strong supporter of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause and has been actively campaigning for the release of the convicts. The MDMK cannot go slow on the issue and will certainly put pressure on the NDA if it forms the government. In fact, that will leave the convicts with some hope because their release was halted only by judicial intervention of the Congress government. Had the central government overlooked the AIADMK government’s decision, they would have been free by now. Therefore, if the BJP forms the next government, it will be logically good for the convicts; but for the party, it will be one its early headaches. The Congress will oppose as it has consistently done in the past and the BJP ranks also might join them because it violates their inflexible position on terror. But MDMK - and to some extent, its other alliance partner, the PMK - cannot keep quiet. It will certainly put pressure on the BJP leadership. The BJP will also come under pressure from the the AIADMK - more formidable than the MDMK - if it decides to join the government or support it from outside. In such a situation, which is a very possible prospect, the former will have to soften its stand and perhaps quote human rights or some national or international covenants to get away. The DMK - and its alliance partners such as VCK - too will make some inconsequential noise, perhaps similar to the way it responded while it was in government with the Congress. There is nothing expedient and popular about the issue and hence it will just keep contributing to the simmering emotions of the supporters of the cause. So, the convicts should pray that the BJP forms the next government and the AIADMK as well as the front that was led by the former do reasonably well in Tamil Nadu.