What Modi's 'guest appearance' in Karnataka says of him

On the campaign trail in Gujarat, Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s appearance at an election meeting is typically prefaced by chants from his followers who liken him to a “Gujarat ka sher”, Gujarat’s leonine leader.  In recent times, however, the lion of the Gir forest has been looking to expand his territory across a larger geography. One of the intimations of that came in May last year, when Modi addressed the BJP national executive meeting in Mumbai, barely months ahead of his third election victory - which, it was widely known, would be his launchpad to “go national”, so to speak. As Modi arrived at the venue, the adulatory chants that greeted him reflected this expansionist motive: he was hailed not as “Gujarat ka sher”, but as “Bharat ka sher”. In keeping with that eagerness to stake out a larger turf, Modi has in recent times been making frequent appearances at public forums in Delhi and elsewhere. All of these forays were undertaken at the invitation of specific event hosts, be it the Shri Ram College in Delhi or the  India Today Conclave or the FICCI Ladies Organisation or Network18’s ThinkIndia forum. The fact that his events calendar is getting fully booked says something about the keenness among wider audiences beyond Gujarat to hear from the man who has injected himself by the sheer force of his personality to the centre of the political discourse. But the fact that Modi has been accepting these invitations and making himself visible to a pan-Indian audience also says much: that he sees them as catalytic factors that will grease the tracks of his own personal ambition, which is clearly steering him towards Delhi. [caption id=“attachment_726993” align=“alignright” width=“380”] Is Narendra Modi playing safe? AFP.[/caption] Whether that ambition will be realised is a function of many variables, most of which are difficult to prophesy. But what is beyond dispute is that Modi has, without saying so in as many words, signalled his keenness to stride across a larger stage. And yet, the “Bharat ka sher” comes across as less than valorous in the manner in which he is picking and choosing his battles. Take, for instance, Karnataka, where his party, the BJP, faces the prospect of a severe drubbing in the Assembly elections on 5 May. BJP leaders have indicated that Modi will at best make a guest appearance at one campaign rally in Karnataka. Evidently, Modi is less than keen to campaign harder than that because the BJP is perceived to be on a weak wicket - after five years of bad governance,  corruption charges  and intra-party squabbles. There are, of course, plenty of perfectly rational explanations to account for Modi’s unwillingness to do more to come to the aid of a beleaguered party in Karnataka. For one thing, trump cards should be used sparingly, of course. For another, the political calculus that applies in Karnataka may have been immune to his political sway. The consideration that even Modi’s most strenuous efforts would not be enough to wipe out the bad karma of the State party leadership is, of course, not without merit. Why, then, should he “own up” to a State party unit - and risk the inevitable taunt that will follow: that this lion isn’t a “vote-winner” beyond his Gir forest? But such a play-safe attitude ill-befits a “lion”. If anything, there’s a case to be made that as the BJP’s star campaigner, Modi should have gone all-in in Karnataka  - simply because he had nothing to lose. The BJP’s record of the past five years in the State is known to anyone who has a modicum of interest in the politics of the State. The fact that the BJP runs the risk of a monumental drubbing is known, even to BJP leaders, notwithstanding the brave face they continue to put up in public. In such a scenario, if Modi had campaigned hard, and the BJP had still lost, only in the eyes of the hyper-partisan analyst would the defeat have been traced back to Modi. On the other hand, Modi would have come across as someone who had put party before self, and come to the aid of the party when it was down and out. And if, on the other hand, he had campaigned hard and managed to retrieve some ground for the BJP, it would have been attributed entirely to his efforts. Even his trenchant critics would have had to acknowledge that, given the current state of the BJP. In that sense, it would have been a win-win proposition for Modi. It would have signalled that he doesn’t pick and choose his battles, and is willing to wade into the trenches in the party’s cause even in the face of near-certain defeat.  It would also have been a litmus test of the kind of political sway he wields beyond his home turf. But today, Modi comes across as a play-safe politician who doesn’t want to risk anything that might impede him in his ‘Chalo Dilli’ yatra. That’s not how a ‘Bharat ka sher’ ought to conduct himself.