Weakened AAP, comatose Congress: Will BJP win big in Delhi?

The BJP is expected to pip the Aam Admi Party (AAP) to the post in the race for the largest number of seats in Delhi. That is what political observers are predicting for the nation’s capital. In what could be seen as some relief for the Congress, which seems to be trapped under an avalanche of adverse poll predictions, some political analysts believe the party has managed claw its way back into the game after the fall of the Arvind Kejriwal government. However, the majority opinion is that AAP’s fall in popularity will benefit the BJP because the anti-Congress wave is still strong in Delhi. [caption id=“attachment_1473183” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Indian youth wing activists of the Bharathiya Janata Party (BJP), clad in face masks of BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, hold up placards as pedestrians walk past outside a metro station in New Delhi. AFP[/caption] The Congress party, which swept Delhi 7-0 in 2009, garnering an impressive vote-share of 57 percent, is predicted to gain between 0-1 seat in Delhi this time around. But those who believe it has regained lost ground give it between 2-3 seats. The Delhi Congress has in the last couple of weeks sharpened its attack against AAP in a last-ditch attempt to re-claim some its lost vote-share and has hard-sold the crowd-turnouts at the rallies addressed by party president Sonia Gandhi and vice-president Rahul Gandhi to drive home the point. How much, if at all, that will translate into votes on polling day remains to be seen. ‘Stability’, ‘clean government’, ‘Modi’, ‘price-rise’ and ‘development’, will be some of key factors on the Delhi voter’s mind when he casts his vote on Thursday, say political observers. “I think there are only two issues - either a stable government or a clean government. Those who think of a stable government will go with the BJP and those who think of a clean government will go for AAP. The choice is between stability and a clean government,” said Dipankar Gupta, sociologist and Director, Center for Public Affairs and Critical Theory at the Shiv Nadar University. Sanjay Kumar, psephologist and Director, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) says the dominant mood in the Capital on polling day will be ‘anti-Congress’. “The anti-Congress mood is still very strong. So one big issue will be to defeat the Congress and the UPA government. Price-rise is still a big issue. These will be the two big issues on voters’ minds. People are extremely unhappy with the price-rise and they would like to vote out the Congress government,” says Kumar. What about the much touted ‘Modi factor’? “Naturally, if there is a strong anti-Congress mood in Delhi and the popularity of AAP has gone down, many voters are looking forward to the BJP and Modi,” Kumar said. “Certainly many people will vote for the BJP on Thursday due to their attraction for Modi.” Mohammed Badrul Alam, Head of the Political Science Department at Jamia Milia Islamia University makes the point that the deciding factors in the Lok Sabha election “will be very different from what it was four months ago in December (during Delhi state assembly election).” “I think people’s perspective now will be very different because now they are voting for a political party that will govern the country. The national issues will be paramount while they decide which party can govern them for the next five years. Either they will opt for continuity or they will opt for change. That will be the thrust,” says Alam, suggesting that AAP may no longer have the advantage it had in the 2013 Delhi assembly election. The Lok Sabha poll in Delhi, says the professor, will see AAP’s impact diminish compared to its Delhi Assembly performance. “At the national level, AAP is not going to play any role and it cannot be a viable ally of either the UPA or the NDA or the Third Front. Therefore, people will think twice when they go to vote. It will probably be a toss-up between the BJP and the Congress,” says Alam. But then what about the anti-Congress wave? “Anti-Congress does not necessarily mean pro-BJP. A person may be disillusioned with the Congress but that does not mean that he will automatically go with the BJP. Last time around, people voted for AAP. They had a lot of hope that they will do something tangible. The question is who will benefit from disappointment among AAP’s voters? That remains to be seen. I think the Congress will get a chunk of AAP votes and the BJP will also get a chunk of that vote. It will vary from area to area,” he adds. But Kumar has a different take. It will be the BJP that will benefit from disgruntled AAP voters, he says. “AAP voters are also anti-Congress. They are not going to go back to the Congress in a big way. Some of them might go back to Congress,” argues Kumar. Gupta also predicts a Congress wipe-out in Delhi. Dismissing reports of a Congress revival in Delhi, he says, “No one is voting for the Congress. Those who would otherwise have voted for BJP will vote for AAP. All voters are either BJP or AAP.” While Kumar puts the Congress party’s tally in the Capital between 0 and 1, Alam gives it a surprising 3. “If the Lok Sabha election was four months ago, Congress would have been totally wiped out. But now they could get three. The BJP could get between 3 and 4. And AAP, which could have got 5-6, can hope for not more than 2 seats now, in my opinion,” says Alam. Speaking about how the political prospects of the BJP, the Congress and AAP had changed since Delhi voted in the state assembly elections, Alam says, “If you ask me if the Congress is better off today than it was four months ago, as far as Delhi is concerned, the answer is yes. Is AAP worse off today than it was four months ago, the answer again is yes. Is the BJP better off today, probably also yes.” A party’s political campaign is a reflection of its state of mind going into an election. Commenting the political campaigns of AAP, BJP and the Congress, Gupta said, “The BJP campaign is a Modi campaign. There is no BJP campaign. Modi himself says that once you put your stamp on the Lotus, the vote goes straight to him. The Congress campaign is unimpressive because it is all about what they have done in the past and no one wants to believe that. The AAP campaign is winding down a bit. They have not been able to affectively explain why they ran away from government. But still, in Delhi AAP will be significant in terms of votes polled and BJP is going to be the winning party.” While the Congress campaign has been the most defensive, AAP has gone on the offensive the most in Delhi, says Kumar. “Compared to the tone of campaigns in other states, the campaigns in Delhi by any political party in Delhi have not been extremely aggressive. The difficulty with the Congress is that it is not attacking other parties. They are trying to impress upon voters that they have done some good work which has not been noticed. They are most defensive. AAP has been on the offensive the most in a sense because they have to criticise both the BJP and the Congress,” he points out. How far will the candidate’s popularity within his constituency influence voters? Ajay Maken, for instance, the incumbent Congress candidate from New Delhi, is perceived to be popular in his constituency and considered to have the best chance among the seven Congress candidates to win in Delhi. Says Gupta, “Maken is indeed a good man and is the best Congressman in the entire party perhaps. But he is certainly in the wrong place at the wrong time.” Candidates have little influence, says Kumar, when there is a strong wave against the party. “If there is a wave it becomes difficult for the candidates to counter it. If we believe that there is an anti-Congress wave, it is difficult for the candidate to win on his image. When there is a wave, we’ve seen how even Indira Gandhi was defeated. This wave, however, is not as strong as the anti-Congress wave of 1977. But yes, there is attraction for the BJP and Modi.” Offering a counter-perspective, Alam argues that the connectivity of individual candidates with their constituency cannot be written off. “I think Modi factor is important. But the personality of the candidates and local connectivity will also matter. It might play out differently in different constituencies. Overall, the voter will judge if their MP was there for them when they needed him, did he connect with local issues, was he approachable. These issues will also be important for the electorate.”