Voters may prove the pundits wrong in this election, too

By Yogendra Yadav A perfect antidote to hubris, democracy cures not just the arrogance of power, it also serves to mitigate the certitudes of intellect. Like politicians, elections are one moment when political analysts must submit their readings, their projections and their grand designs to the test of ordinary citizen. As in the case of politicians, this can be a humbling experience for those in the business of analyzing politics. [caption id=“attachment_7633” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Electronic voting machines would make counting easier and decide the fate of candidates quickly. Reuters”] [/caption] If the CNN-IBN-The Week post-poll surveys conducted by the Centre for Study of Developing Studies (CSDS) are anything to go by, the current round of assembly elections holds many lessons for national and local analysts of politics. These surveys of 3,000-5,000 electors in each of the four states that went to polls recently throw up indicators that defy established political commonsense. This commonsense suggested that the UDF’s victory in Kerala was a forgone conclusion, while Assam was bound to witness a hung assembly with no party anywhere close to the majority mark. Mamata held an edge in West Bengal, but the Left Front had staged a partial recovery since the debacle in 2009. Tamil Nadu was a thriller, but political analysts expected things to swing decisively in favour of AIADMK by polling day. The survey findings invite us to rethink this established commonsense. When the elections were announced, Kerala appeared all set for a boring repetition of a three-decades-old cycle of oscillation of power in each election. There were some reports of Chief Minister VS Achuthanandan having turned things around for the Left, but not many took this seriously. In a light-hearted vain I called it a conspiracy of the Malayali media to create suspense where none existed. The findings of the CSDS survey team led by Dr Sajjad Ibrahim show how uninformed such comments made by people sitting in Delhi can be. The survey shows that the Left Front government enjoys a fairly decent approval rating, and not just among traditional LDF supporters. Achuthanandan leads the popularity charts for the Chief Minister’s position, way ahead of Congress’ Oommen Chandy or any of his rivals in his own party. A suggestion that this 87-year-old leader may be too old to hold the CM’s position is dismissed vehemently, even by those below 25. It also hints at a more fundamental transformation in the political landscape of the state. Slowly, but surely, the proportion of ‘unattached voters’ has gone up in the state, thus creating a space for an open-ended judgment on the performance of government detached from the iron law of alteration of government. We cannot be sure that the 30-year-old pattern will get reversed this time, but this possibility cannot be ruled out. In Assam, political commonsense suggested that the logic of ethnic and political fragmentation was bound to reach a new high, resulting in a badly hung assembly. Congress had finished well short of a majority in 2006, forming a government with support from the Bodo Peoples Front. This time the ruling party was expected to slide further, opening the way for a resurgent and reunited AGP to take a shot at forming the government. The findings of the CSDS survey led by Dr Dhruba Kumar Sharma could surprise everyone, including Congressmen. Tarun Gogoi, the sitting Chief Minister, stands tall among all political leaders; people think that his second term was better than his first. There is a fair degree of approval for much of what his government has done on routine developmental matters. The serious allegations of corruption do not seem to have reached ordinary voters or affected their judgment. What appears to have worked for Gogoi is his determined initiative for peace with Ulfa and his dogged refusal to have any truck with the AIUDF, seen as a party of Bengali Muslim immigrants. The CSDS survey shows that the Congress has made a recovery among Ahomiya Hindus and Assamese-speaking Muslims. Unable to keep alive the foreigners issue or to reincarnate itself as a normal party of developmental issues, the AGP may suffer further decline just when it was expected to stage a recovery. We do not still know if the Congress will get a clear majority, but an improvement from 2006 for the Congress party could begin the process of long-term political realignment in the state. Among the four major four states, Tamil Nadu appears to have lived up to its promise of providing a thriller. The DMK had surprised everyone by producing a thumping victory in the Lok Sabha elections. No one expected it to repeat that kind of victory and the public mood in urban areas had visibly shifted against the ruling party. Jayalalithaa’s alliance with Vijaykanth’s DMDK appeared to have sealed the deal in her favour. When Karunanidhi and Stalin change their old constituencies, you know there is trouble. Among neutral political analysts there was a sense of a clear victory for the AIADMK-led alliance. The CSDS team led by Prof Koteshwar Prasad invites us to nuance this picture. The AIADMK appears to be ahead by a whisker in a very tight election. The alliance with the DMDK appears to have worked well at the voters’ level despite the well publicised problems at the top. When it comes to corruption and nepotism, the DMK in general and Karunanidhi in particular are rated poorly. But this is not true for his general record of governance. The general ratings of his government, the record of delivery of public services and the proportion of ordinary people who have benefited from government schemes would put the best performing governments in north India to shame. He might still lose the election, and the margin of his defeat could be bigger than what the survey anticipates if fear and greed are as widespread as reported, but this would not be a non-performing government being booted out. The political commonsense in West Bengal had shifted in the last six months before elections. Every political analyst and worker said that the Left had recovered from the shock they received in 2009, and that their phenomenal election machine was back at work. It was also claimed that the party had made amends for some of their worst follies and their candidate selection was superb. There was some evidence to back the claims of Left recovery: the local bodies controlled by the Trinamool Congress and Congress had been a disaster and the Left had done well in recent student union elections across the state. So, this election was going to be closer than the Lok Sabha election and the Left could even pull off a small win. After talking to nearly 5,000 people across the state, the CSDS team led by Dr Supriyo Basu nails this misreading. The evidence shows what everyone suspected: the tide of anger against the Left has continued unabated and is most intense in areas that the Left considered its bastions. The erosion of votes is most intense not just among the urban middle classes and the intelligentia, but is equally so among the urban and rural poor. Buddhadeb Bhattacharya’s ratings have taken a nosedive, as he is rated very poorly compared to Jyoti Basu; his recent government is rated worse than his own first government. The LF government is indicted on all the expected counts: Singur, Nandigram, Nitai, Rizwanur’s killing. The desire for ‘poriborton’ has very little content as of now. It has a symbol in Mamata Banerjee and a lot of hopes. While we cannot be sure about the margin of the Left’s defeat – if residual fear has resulted in some over-reporting for the Left, then we could be looking at a 1977 kind of rout for the Left – it is clear that Writers’ Building will see new faces this time. It is not the first time that survey evidence has gone against political commonsense. In we keep the history of these divergences in mind, we can learn two valuable lessons. One, it is pointless to quarrel with this evidence just because it flies in the face of what every sensible and reasonable political analyst believes. Time and again such analyses have been proven wrong. At the same time, it is equally presumptuous to think that survey findings are election outcomes. We still have to wait for Friday the 13th to hear the voice of the people. Yogendra Yadav is Senior Fellow, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi