Vajpayee's old guard won't be part of potential Modi regime

Time to make a difference. Time for change. Time for Modi - that’s the BJP’s campaign punchline. It was coined to seek a change in government, the exit of Manmohan Singh and entry of Narendra Modi as the new occupant of 7 Race Course Road. But with only seven days to go before the first phase of polling, it is clear that the man in focus is asking for a change that means much more for him and his party. [caption id=“attachment_1458907” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Modi during the Amravati rally. PTI[/caption] As the BJP’s charge to grab power at the Centre grows in strength, the visible signs of change are not just about a generational shift, or the end of Vajpayee-Advani era and the emergence of the Modi-Rajnath era in the organisational set-up, but are also about an internal churning process within the BJP and the NDA. This indicates that Modi’s ascendance to power could mean a policy shift from the NDA’s very own Vajpayee government, which all party leaders so fondly recall. It’s not about the different style and persona of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Narendra Modi, but it is also about the key strategists and big four ministers who were with Vajpayee and those who could possibly come with Modi. The broad policy formulations and the core of governance from the Centre is guided by the five occupants of North and South block – the Prime Minister, home minister, finance minister, external affairs minister and defence minister. It is they who form political leadership in the government, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), the highest executive body for taking decisions of strategic concerns. Firstpost spoke to a number of BJP leaders to understand the potential change in power dynamics if Modi comes to power. Consider the facts – former Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister LK Advani is out of the reckoning for a ministerial berth, former defence minister and NDA convenor George Fernandes is physically immobile and out of politics, former finance minister Jaswant Singh was expelled from the BJP on midnight on Saturday and former external affairs minister Yashwant Sinha has withdrawn from electoral politics to promote his son Jayant in his home constituency Hazaribagh and by consequence he has negated the possibility of being a minister in next government. Another influential leader who acted as go between among the top leaders, co-ordinating with them and even influenced some key decisions, organisational or governmental, Pramod Mahajan, died an unfortunate death in May 2003. The key strategic decisions that flew out of Raisina Hills included acceleration of economic reforms and disinvestment of PSUs, writing a new chapter for a strategic tie-up with America and beginning of a peace process in Jammu & Kashmir and with Pakistan. Will Modi have something like a big bang Pokhran explosion? Nobody has an answer but as a BJP leader said, one thing is sure that economic stability and development will form core of governance agenda. The none of Vajpayee’s Big Four will be a minister now is a given, but the turn of events in the past fortnight indicates that none will even be in a position to influence future decision making processes. Party patriarch and mentor LK Advani’s position is rather curious. A lately developed coldness between him and Modi, him being seen as someone who was still not prepared to accept Modi as the unquestioned leader of the party, either in Goa in July 2013 or in September when Modi was declared Prime Ministerial nominee, or at later stages including the recent crisis situation that the party faced over his nomination from Gandhinagar, has diluted Advani’s capacity to influence key decisions in the months to come. It was expected of Advani to play role of a mentor in government formation, working for an “NDA plus”, stitching ties with allies, playing on his seniority and moral authority to resolve conflict situations in the BJP and in the coalition, but given the above-mentioned developments, senior leaders are now doubtful how much influence he would really wield if the party really comes close to forming a government after the May 16 results. The other big question is whether there is a “Plan B”, if the BJP does not get the numbers to make Modi the Prime Minister. “There is no Plan A, Plan B or Plan C, there is only one Plan and it is Plan M,” said an RSS insider. Though there is some skepticism among sections of BJP leaders, the broad opinion is that the BJP, by conspiring to make someone else the PM nominee in a number crunching situation, cannot afford to be seen as cheating the people. The mandate, if it is for the NDA, will be for Modi and nobody else. No body will believe the party if it makes an about turn for an overdrive to power. A party leader pointed out the change in Rajnath Singh’s tweet – last week he first tweeted that it’s time for change, time for a BJP government; only to change it afew minutes later to ’time for change, time for a Modi government’. RSS mouthpiece Tarun Bharat, a Marathi daily published from Nagpur, further elaborates on the subject. In an article titled ‘Panthapradhan padi Modi ani phakta Modi’ (For Prime Ministership, Modi and only Modi), Ravindra Dani, the newspaper’s senior editor who is known for his penetration in the top echelons of the RSS and BJP, begins by using a suitable quote from Abraham Lincoln. Public opinion is everything in this country, he writes. Dani goes in detail to argue that even if Modi gets fewer votes or seats than expected to lead the government, there cannot be a change in leadership position. He cited three instances from the past, Nehru vis-à-vis Patel, VP Singh vis-à-vis Devilal, Vajpayee vis-à-vis Advani. In his concluding paragraph titled ’numbers and sentiments’ Dani says, “In Parliamentary democracy, numbers in Lok Sabha are important but that is not all. The key driver to decision making is public sentiment, at times more important than actual numbers. In these elections how many seats the BJP finally wins will be known only on counting day on May 16 but significance of a highly responsive build-up for Modi across the country cannot be missed even by some of those who are opposing him today. They will come to accept the reality, the mood for change, for a Modi government. The impact of this highly visible public sentiment is well accepted by the BJP leadership and one such manifestation was BJP president Rajnath Singh withdrawing his ‘BJP government’ tweet within 33 minutes of its initial posting. No one can have the courage or conviction to think or work for an alternate, whatever the final outcome be.”