Watch: Firstpost's roundup on the seventh and final phase of UP Election with SanjaySingh and Badrinarayan
Uttar Pradesh first phase polling as it happened: Polling closes in western UP, around 63% voter turnout recorded
There appears no clear front-runner among the three major contestants - BJP, SP-Congress and BSP - in the 73 seats going to polls in the first phase of elections in UP
Highlights
Modi's blatant Hindutva pitch after the third phase
In the past couple of weeks, the prime minister's attitude and his speech strategy at rallies has changed unmistakably. Starting his speeches with the archetypal mitron, which Modi says with a smile, the prime minister's rally speeches suddenly found more of communal undertones and less of the various benefits of demonetisation.
When Modi kick started his campaign in the state on 2 January with his Parivartan rally in Lucknow, the BJP was focussing on appeasing farmers, planning to announce some pro-poor schemes and focus on the many benefits of the 8 November, 2016 decision to demonetise Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes. The party planned to dedicate the campaigning on making sure that the demonetisation drive was used to its fullest. The second poll issue that Modi wanted to hammer home was development. Modi stayed clear of any communal references in his speech. Until that infamous 'kabristan' speech.
The prime minister was criticised for playing the Hindutva card. Interestingly, the time when Modi made the graveyard comment, three phases of polling were already done. Ground reports did not give any political party a clear lead and analysts said that the shift from development plank to communal plank was party's strategy to engineer counter-polarisation sentiments by whipping up apprehensions about the Samajwadi Party's pro-minority image.
Akhilesh addressed the most number of rallies
With 211 rallies in just 36 days, Akhilesh became the leader who addressd the most number of rallies in Uttar Pradesh. A highly-charged final phase of campaigning for the Uttar Pradesh polls culminated on Monday with shows of strength by the BJP, the Samajwadi Party-Congress combine and the Bahujan Samaj Party in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Varanasi constituency, where he camped for three days.
Around 40 seats spread over seven eastern districts, including five in Varanasi, go to the polls on Wednesday, bringing the curtains down on the two month-long exercise staggered over seven phases. Predictions aside and in the run-up to 11 March, analysis of the high-octane campaigning in Uttar Pradesh throws up some interesting trends. Number game aside, the tone and texture of the speeches delivered by the major players in Uttar Pradesh gives us an insight of what the political parties might be expecting as the verdict day closes in.
BJP's candidate dilemma may hurt party in PM Modi's parliamentary constituency Varanasi
Varanasi is not turning out to be the cakewalk the BJP might have hoped for. Factors like consolidation of opposition votes and well-entrenched rival candidates against BJP's perceived fumbling in picking its nominees have come together to make contests close in this high-profile seat.
"I am a little critical. There is an excess effort from the BJP and people can feel it. Everybody has a role and stature and I think it (Modi's numerous events) diminishes the prime minister's chair," said Ashok Kumar Upadhyay, a professor in Political Science Department of Banaras Hindu University. He, however, told PTI that the overdrive may end up helping the saffron party by winning over floating voters who are guided by the "wave".
Muslim weavers in Varanasi back SP-Congress, feel alienated by BJP
Many of the Muslim weavers are not very happy with the BJP's policies, with their Banarasi sarees having lost sheen post note ban. Besides there are old fault lines that deeply divide the community and the saffron party.
Asked if they would vote for Modi, whose road show on Saturday passed through some Muslim localities and drew good response, some youths shot back, "How many Muslims have been fielded by the BJP in UP? Zero. We are 20 per cent in the state but not seen good enough even for one of the 403 seats. Why should we vote for him?"
After Kejriwal And Parrikar, Akhilesh Yadav Asks UP Voters to Accept Money
Akhilesh Yadav is the latest addition to the list of leaders who have asked the electorate to take money from other outfits but cast vote for their respective parties.
Varanasi stretches beyond its temples and Brahmins
Amid the din surrounding Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to two prominent Hindu shrines in Varanasi on Saturday, it is the city's Muslim community that felt alienated from the political discourse that gripped this land of temples on the banks of the river Ganga.
The city is home to a sizeable Muslim community, in fact, 15 percent if you talk in numbers. Many among the community, which is usually perceived to be lock, stock and barrel against Modi and the saffron party, had voted for Modi (ergo development) in the 2014 elections.
But with the communal undertones in the prime minister's election rallies — like his recent graveyard-crematorium comment — the Muslim community may be keen on doing a rethink on the trust they had reposed in the BJP.
5th phase could be he decider
The fifth phase of UP polls is moving to the eastern part and poll pundits say this might be the decider in an election that no one is willing to call. The deciding regions are also those which have contributed immensely to SP's massive in the last Assembly election.
According to this report, candidates and opponents are seeking a caste coalition and "raising disenchantment with sitting SP legislators" to overthrow the incumbent Akhilesh government.
'During election, condition of electricity supply is better'
In Robertsganj, the district headquarters of Sonebhadra district of eastern UP, residents should be getting 20 hours of electricity. Instead, they get 14-15 hours, interspersed with power cuts. “They say they are providing it (electricity), but most of the times it is when we don’t need it,” said Ajit Kumar Shrivastava, Robertsganj resident and a small kirana (grocery) store owner.
“Right now, because it is election time, the supply has been good for the past one month,” said Shrivastava. “Before that, we hardly had power for 14 hours… sometimes as little as eight hours.” About 240 million Indians had no access to electricity in 2015. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech at the Wembley stadium in London on November 13, 2015, he said: “As many as 18,000 villages need electricity. There are not even electricity poles. In the next 1,000 days we will ensure they get it.” Of 18,452 unelectrified villages in India, 5,438, or almost 30 percent, are yet to be electrified.
Akhilesh Yadav's claims about power supply, electrification exaggerated
Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, while addressing a rally at Muzaffarnagar on 2 February, 2017, and in this interview to The Hindu on 22 February, 2017, has claimed that his government is now providing 24-hours-a-day electricity supply to cities and 16-18 hours a day to villages. At another rally on 9 February, 2017, in Kosi, Yadav claimed the government was providing 22-24 hours of electricity a day in cities while villages were being provided with 14-16 hours' supply a day.
Not only do the claims vary from rally to rally, they also do not match official figures given to FactChecker by Purvanchal Vidyut Vitaran Nigam Limited (PVVNL), the state-owned distribution company that supplies power across eastern Uttar Pradesh. While cities were provided with round-the-clock power, district headquarters and larger towns received 22 hours of electricity and villages received 18 hours, said Chandrajeet Singh, chief engineer at PVVNL.
Only 30 km south-east from Muzaffarnagar, where Yadav made the claim of 16-18 hours of power to villages, is Sambalhera, where local resident Mohammed Taleem said they received electricity only for 10-12 hours a day. READ FULL ARTICLE HERE
Fact check on Modi’s UP election campaign: Truths, half-truths and tall claims
Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed an election rally on 16 February, 2017 in Barabanki, 30km from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh that has seen three phases of voting in a seven-phase poll for the next legislative assembly. IndiaSpend checked five claims made by Modi during the speech
CLAIM 1:
"Lekin agar sarkar ki school main…akhilesh ji ka kaam bolta hai…ki 50% teacher ki bharti hi nahi hui hai, to garib ka baccha padhaai kahaan karega?" (If, as work done by Akhilesh Yadav government shows, there is a 50% vacancy in teacher posts in UP, where will the children of the poor get education?)
Fact: Modi is partially right. As many as 23% teacher posts in elementary grades (up to Class 8) and 50% posts in secondary schools ( Class 9 and Class 10) are vacant in Uttar Pradesh, IndiaSpend reported in December 2016.
CLAIM 2:
"Hindustan mein sabse jyada..daliton par atyachaar agar kahin hote hai, to us pradesh ka naam hai Uttar Pradesh." (If there is a region in India where crimes against lower castes are the highest, it is Uttar Pradesh)
Fact: Modi’s claim is wrong.
Though crimes against Scheduled Castes (SCs) were the highest in UP at 8,358 cases, with 8,460 people affected in 2015, UP’s crime rate, or crime per 100,000 SC population, was 20, less than Gujarat (26), Madhya Pradesh (37) and Goa (51), according to data from the National Crimes Records Bureau.
Watch: Political analyst Ambikanand Sahay in conversation with Firstpost Hindi
"The districts which are in fray in the fourth phase is the land of hermits and bandits. People have Ramayan in their blood, so whether people will appreciate this sort of political discourse (Amit Shah's Kasba comment) is a matter of concern."
As Priyanka Gandhi disappears from Amethi, Raebareli, Lalu Prasad Yadav steers Congress ship
It is highly mystifying to people in Raebareli. They had seen it in TV news, read it in newspapers that Priyanka Gandhi was the one who finally saw to it that Congress’ alliance deal with Samajwadi Party was sealed. They had also come to know through media reports and from whatever political gossip they had heard that she was now poised to take a bigger role, campaign all over Uttar Pradesh than just nurturing twin family constituencies, Raebareli and Amethi.
But people here were in for a surprise of a different kind. They are in fact a bit intrigued by her absence. Last time they had enough of Priyanka Gandhi in 2012 assembly elections, who was here for about a fortnight, had gone to almost every big nukkad in six assembly segments of her mother’s parliamentary constituency, spoke there, waved hands, spent moments with womenfolk, party workers and other sundry voters in all strata of society.
While local Congress leaders claim that Priyanka was occupied with some family matters but that’s no explanation for ordinary locals. In the last Assembly election, she had held about three dozen rallies in six assembly segments Raebareli and slightly less number in four assembly segments of Amethi parliamentary constituency, held by her brother Rahul. In the parliamentary election, she was managing Raebareli and Amethi.
Keshav Maurya defends PM's graveyard comment, says Ram Temple is matter of faith for BJP
Speaking to CNN-News18, BJP state president Keshav Maurya said, "Even SP and BSP are accepting that they are fighting against BJP. BJP is here to form the government." When asked about the graveyard comment of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Keshav said, "There is nothing wrong in whatever the prime minister has said. He just showed us the reality that light comes during Ramzan and Eid and not during Diwali."
When asked whether Ram Temple is one of the poll issues, Keshav said, "Ram temple is a matter of faith for us. We have mentioned it in our manifesto as well. As far as Uttar Pradesh ke Ladke are concerned, the youth of UP will give them a reply."
Mulayam puts up a brave face, but body language gave up his inner turmoil
Samajwadi Party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav and his second wife Sadhna Gupta rarely, if ever, make a public appearance together; let alone make a political statement. The Yadav family homeland of Saifai witnessed a fresh chapter in the first family's history on Sunday when the two landed there together, within hours of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav casting his vote.
Mulayam, prompted by Sadhna, showed a mark of indelible ink on his finger and proclaimed that the SP was returning to power with a majority on its own.
Though Mulayam's words exuded confidence, his body language suggested that he lacked the vitality, vigour, enthusiasm and force that is usually associated with him during election time in Uttar Pradesh.
This shift in his persona also reflects the changing tides for Akhilesh in the current polls. A number of factors could foil a re-election bid for the chief minister.
Read more from the author here.
Despite SP-Congress alliance, UP ko kuch aur pasand hai
Winds of change could be blowing in Uttar Pradesh. Ahead of the third phase of polling in this most populous and politically crucial Hindi heartland state, there are signs on the ground that Samajwadi Party-Congress coalition, Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav’s pre-poll catchphrase “UP ko ye saath pasand hai” is not striking the desired cord among the numbers of voters required to catapult them to power.
It’s true that there are no obvious signs of anti-incumbency against Akhilesh Yadav but the endorsement sentiments to bring the incumbent back to power is clearly missing.
An excessive reliance of the SP-Congress coalition to woo Muslims has given rise to latent Hindutva sentiments across the state. The strategists perhaps erred in calculating the Muslims vote but they are not the only ones who vote. Mayawati too has erred on the same count. Scratch a bit and Hindutva sentiments of non-Yadav and non-Jatav community would come out to the fore. The situation may not be that of 2014 but this factor is certainly there on the ground and that could significantly tilt the balance for BJP.
The polling percentage so far, with exception of Noida, has been very good. That is a clear indicator that voters in large numbers from all communities are coming out to vote. READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE
Congress rejects Narendra Modi's allegation of murder bid on Mulayam Singh Yadav
Congress on Thursday dismissed Prime Minister Narendra Modi's charge that the party had made a bid on Mulayam Singh Yadav's life, saying the word 'murder' was synonymous with Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah. "The word 'murder' is synonymous with Modi and (Amit) Shah.
The killing spree started with the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi by RSS. We are Gandhians from the core of our heart and firm believer of non-violence," AICC General Secretary and in-charge of party affairs in Uttar Pradesh Ghulam Nabi Azad told a news conference here.
Read more here.
-PTI
Campaign for 3rd phase ends on Friday, 12 districts go to polls on 19 February
Curtains will come down on Friday on the hectic campaign in 69 Assembly seats spread over 12 districts of Uttar Pradesh that will go to polls in the third phase on 19 February. The districts are Farrukhabad, Hardoi, Kannauj, Mainpuri, Etawah, Auraiya, Kanpur Dehat, Kanpur, Unnao, Lucknow, Barabanki and Sitapur.
Akhilesh Yadav. ReutersAkhilesh Yadav. Reuters
In the 2012 Assembly polls, SP had won 55 of these 69 seats, while BSP, BJP and Congress secured just 6, 5 and 2 respectively. One seat went to an Independent.
Read more here.
-PTI
Yadav family image matters just as much as seats
In Uttar Pradesh’s heartland, where the election enters phase three, the debate is not whether the Yadav dominance in their stronghold would continue, it’s how the bitter power struggle in the Yadav first family would impact the prospect of individual members in the fray.
The once powerful Shivpal Yadav is a pale shadow of himself after the knock-out blow from nephew Akhilesh. Patriarch Mulayam Singh is a much subdued man these days, preferring to be away from the limelight. Some other members of the family are still in the process of adjusting to the generational shift in the party. The Yadav community has stood by Mulayam for over two decades but this time it’s a bit confused after the coup by Akhilesh which many perceive as an insult to Mulayam.
Read full analysis here
Modi uses Isro success to punch in strong dose of nationalism in Kannauj rally
Narendra Modi began his rally in Kannauj by congratulating Isro scientists for launching 104 satellites in one go earlier in the day. Constantly invoking their success during his speech, the Prime Minister asked the sizeable crowd to raise their voice to laud the scientists' effort in which 101 were foreign satellites were launched and only 3 were Indian.
Modi was effectively urging the voters to rise above caste, community and identity fault lines with a strong dose of nationalism arising out of the achievements of scientists.
This election falls under 'rarest of rare' category where conventional wisdom is unlikely to win
Conventional wisdom often guides elections. But rarely does an election turn conventional wisdom on its head. A cursory glance at the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election 2017 would leave no one in doubt that this election would fall into the category of 'rarest of rare' elections.
Not let us examine the reasons why this election is one of the rarest political event in the life of the country's most populous state. Conventional wisdom has it that the party which gets overwhelming mandate only two-and-a-half years back in 2014 Lok Sabha election should have edge over others. By this logic, the BJP should have been choice for the electorate in the state assembly election.
But that is not the case. The electoral chemistry of the national election is vastly different from the state assembly polls. In 2014 elections, Narendra Modi rode on a wave of high expectation and an outright rejection of a government perceived to be led by a weakest-ever prime minister. The groundswell of support transcended the caste-barriers in a decisive manner for Modi. READ FULL ARTICLE HERE
Women winning fewer polls, losing deposits in larger numbers
Poor, populous Uttar Pradesh was the first Indian state to have a female chief minister – Sucheta Kriplani from 1963 to 1967–but this pioneering effort has not improved prospects for women in elections. As voter turnout has risen, more competitors have stood against women candidates, fewer women have won and a growing number have lost their deposits, according to an IndiaSpend and Swaniti Initiative analysis of electoral data of the last three state elections in UP since 2002.
The only exception was for the seats reserved for scheduled caste (SC) candidates. The proportion of women winning SC seats was more than double that of those winning general seats. All this happened over a period when women in India’s most populous state became healthier and better educated, reinforcing the point that there is no correlation between these indicators and better political representation of women.
States with the worst sex ratios have more women members of legislative assemblies (MLAs), as IndiaSpend reported in September 2015. READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE
Bengali widows in Mathura cast ballot in deciding UP polls
Bengali widows, who have found shelter in large numbers in Mathura, exercised their franchise in the crucial elections in the state.
According to Telegraph report, some 40,000 widows — about 25,000 from Bengal — are estimated to live in Vrindavan, Mathura region. They primarily live in various government-run homes and private quarters supported by Sulabh International.
BJP's MP Hema Malini ran into a controversy in 2014 when she commented that the aged widows were "unnecesirily crowding" her constituency.
The actor turned politician had said, "Vrindavan widows have a bank balance, good income, nice beds, but they beg out of habit... There are 40,000 widows in Vrindavan. I think there is no more place in the city. A large population is coming from Bengal... that's not right. Why don't they stay in Bengal?," NDTV reported
Incidentally, in Mathura the BJP has been battling a poll jinx for over fifteen years as it had failed to bag a significant win in this city of temples. Malini remains its only bright spot in this holy town of Western UP.
Red roses for women casting vote in Baraut
The Election Commission has been coming out with unique ideas to encourage women to come out and vote. Earlier in Goa, that went to poll on 4 February, the poll panel gifted soft toys to first-time women voters. Now in Uttar Pradesh, the poll panel is gifting all women voters a red rose, according to The Financial Times
Complex caste dynamics in state most certainly predict a hung Assembly
The first phase of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election in the western region of the state, for 73 seats, is finally underway. The early trend of voting pattern shows that this election is shaping up to be one of the most unique, hyper-competitive, and potentially divisive elections in generations.
Interestingly, the pragmatism of electoral compulsions is seen in full swing when we find that all the parties moderated their competitive needs and entered into the political alignment beyond ideological lines and conventional hostilities. The saddest part is that the dramatic defragmentation of political parties has succeeded in misplacing the priorities of Uttar Pradesh’s electorates.
First, the present election has become mechanical and appears more a contest between highly professional poll managers hired by all the political parties than the parties themselves. Second, the well-defined notion of ‘vote-bank’ politics is in terminal decline. The social bases of all the political parties have been seriously challenged. Read the full article here
Heavy voters turnout in western UP
According to Firstpost Hindi, voter turnout is heavy in western Uttar Pradesh. Till 1pm, Bulandshahr recorded polling percentage of 41.7 percent, Fatehpur Sikri recorded 45 percent, Aligarh 40 percent and Shamli recorded 43 percent.
Read live updates in Hindi. Click here to follow commentary on Firstpost Hindi.
Slow death of Kanpur’s leather economy and Uttar Pradesh's job crisis
In the 1990s, Kanpur’s leather industry employed a million workers (there are no official data), according to IndiaSpend’s inquiries with the government and leather-industry representatives. With 176 of 400 leather tanning units shutting over 10 years, according to a joint secretary–who requested anonymity since he is not authorised to talk to the media–in UP’s industries department, that number has halved.
But earnings from the auto were irregular, from Rs 15,000 to Rs 20,000 a month. So, Hussain is about to begin a job designing and fixing ‘uppers’ (the upper part of a shoe that contains the tongue) at a shoe factory in NOIDA, located in UP but an extension of the metropolitan region of Delhi, India’s richest province, by per capita income.
Elderly voters waiting their turn at the booth at Dhouli Pyayu primary school in Mathura
PINNED POST Read live updates in Hindi. Click here to follow commentary on Firstpost Hindi.
As electoral battlelines are drawn, an analysis to know your neta
The Uttar Pradesh (UP) Assembly closes its term by May 2017. Elections to the Assembly are scheduled for February and counting will take place in April 2017. As candidates get ready to file their nominations with the Election Commission, we present our analysis of the current composition of the Assembly (2012-2017) and the participation of the members (MLAs).
Uma Bharti claims to have 'tortured rapists' when she was CM
Rapists should be tortured "till their skin comes off", Union minister Uma Bharti has said and accused the Samajwadi Party government of failing to provide justice to the victims of the Bulandshahr gangrape case.
Addressing an election rally here yesterday, she claimed that during her tenure as chief minister when a rape incident happened, "I also told the woman to watch the rapist being tortured".
"In my tenure as chief minister, when a rape like this had happened, I got this done. Police officials told me that doing this was a violation of human rights. I replied that these 'danavs' (demons) do not have human rights. I also told the woman to watch the rapist being tortured through a lock-up window so that she could get some peace after listening to his screams and cries for help," the BJP leader said.
Read the full story here.
LIVE NEWS and UPDATES
56 percent voting till 4 pm in UP phase 7 polls
Around 56 per cent of the 1.41 crore voters exercised their franchise till 4 PM today in the seventh and last phase of Uttar Pradesh elections covering 40 Assembly seats spread over seven districts. Assembly constituencies in Varanasi saw 45 percent polling while the Naxal-hit Mirzapur had 47.50 percent polling till 4 pm, it said. PTI
Meanwhile... PM Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah offered prayers at Somnath temple
As the massive polling exercise across five states draws towards its end, PM Modi and Amit Shah were seen offering prayers at the Somnath temple in Gujarat.
After concluding the high-decibel canvassing in all states, especially UP, looks like the BJP top-brass is now pleasing gods for their efforts to pay off.
PM Shri @narendramodi and BJP National President Shri @AmitShah offer prayers at Somnath Temple in Gujarat. pic.twitter.com/lDgOviGtWy
— BJP (@BJP4India) March 8, 2017
Modi's blatant Hindutva pitch after the third phase
In the past couple of weeks, the prime minister's attitude and his speech strategy at rallies has changed unmistakably. Starting his speeches with the archetypal mitron, which Modi says with a smile, the prime minister's rally speeches suddenly found more of communal undertones and less of the various benefits of demonetisation.
When Modi kick started his campaign in the state on 2 January with his Parivartan rally in Lucknow, the BJP was focussing on appeasing farmers, planning to announce some pro-poor schemes and focus on the many benefits of the 8 November, 2016 decision to demonetise Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes. The party planned to dedicate the campaigning on making sure that the demonetisation drive was used to its fullest. The second poll issue that Modi wanted to hammer home was development. Modi stayed clear of any communal references in his speech. Until that infamous 'kabristan' speech.
The prime minister was criticised for playing the Hindutva card. Interestingly, the time when Modi made the graveyard comment, three phases of polling were already done. Ground reports did not give any political party a clear lead and analysts said that the shift from development plank to communal plank was party's strategy to engineer counter-polarisation sentiments by whipping up apprehensions about the Samajwadi Party's pro-minority image.
Women vote in large numbers
Aware that it was International Women's Day on the day of polling, most women told the waiting media outside the polling booths that they were voting to ensure safety and security for women and girls. Professors and members from the teaching fraternity turned up in large numbers to cast their votes in the early hours in the Benaras Hindu University (BHU).
Ajay Rai, the Congress candidate from Pindra, also cast his vote along with his wife. He first performed puja at a temple before heading for the polling station. Rai had unsuccessfully challenged Narendra Modi in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Farmers in Mirzapur's Chunar region boycott elections over lack of irrigation facilities
Farmers boycotted voting in Mirzapur's Chunar assembly segment alleging lack of irrigation facilities & development.
Mirzapur: Farmers boycott voting at polling booth number 283 of Chunar assembly segment alleging lack of irrigation facilities & development pic.twitter.com/jQvik9PX5t
— ANI UP (@ANINewsUP) March 8, 2017
From 'bahu ji' to SP star campaigner: The metamorphosis of Dimple Yadav
The reticent and soft-spoken bahu (daughter-in-law) of the first family of the ruling Samajwadi Party in UP, Dimple Yadav, has finally found her groove, emerging as a major crowd puller in election rallies all over the state.
From the fumbling leader who repeatedly corrected herself while going through her written speeches, the new Dimple - the star campaigner - has learnt how to
keep the audience especially the youth involved and impress them.
PTI
Over 26 percent voting till 12 noon in last phase of UP polls
Over 26 per cent votes were polled till noon for the seventh and last phase of Uttar Pradesh elections. Polling started amidst tight security arrangements this
morning with all eyes on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi.
Varanasi saw 23.76 percent polling, while the Naxal infested Mirzapur had 26.63 per cent polling till 11 am.
PTI
There appears no clear front-runner among the three major contestants - BJP, SP-Congress and BSP - in the 73 seats going to polls in the first phase of elections in Uttar Pradesh with factors including demonetisaiton, problems of farmers and caste and community considerations likely to influence the outcome.
While the BJP appears to be in no position to repeat its performance of 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the Bahujan Samaj Party has steadily built up momentum of its campaign and the Samajwadi Party and Congress are expecting to benefit from their alliance. The Rashtriya Lok Dal is also a force to reckon with on several seats, due to its appeal among Jat voters.
For the BJP, which is banking heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal and its "social engineering", the first phase is crucial to build momentum for the remaining six phases of assembly election for 403 seats in the Uttar Pradesh assembly.
But the party has been battling challenges, including perceived unhappiness among the Jat community, which has a sizeable presence on most seats going to polls in the first phase.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi. PTI
There has also been unhappiness among small traders and labourers who faced difficulties due to the demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes.
Bharatiya Kisan Union leader Choudhary Naresh Tikait said the central government has "done nothing" for the farmers and rural areas in last two-and-a-half years.
"Farmers are moving towards cities. I do not see any benefit due to demonetisation. It has rather caused problems, specially to farmers," he said.
Naresh Tikait, son of well-known farmer leader Mahendra Singh Tikait, said there was "a wave for Modi in 2014" but the situation was different now.
"Political parties have sought to divide farmers on caste lines for their own benefit," he added.
Pushpinder Choudhury, who is affiliated to Jat Aarakshan Sangharsh Samiti, said the Jats would consolidate behind RLD. "They are angry BJP over the issue of reservation and demonetisation," he said.
On its part, the BJP has sought to reach out to the Jat community and farmers.
The party's manifesto has several promises for them including loan waiver for small and marginal farmers.
Modi, in his rally at Bijnor on Friday, said the Samajwadi Party government led by Akhilesh Yadav had not given the sugarcane farmers their due and BJP will ensure them justice.
He also promised to set up Chaudhary Charan Singh Kisan Kalyan Kosh in every district of the state.
In 2012, the BJP had won only 11 of the 73 seats that will vote on Saturday. The Bahujan Samaj Party and SP had won 24 seats each, Rashtriya Lok Dal had won nine and Congress five.
BSP chief Mayawati has been assiduously building up her campaign and seeking to woo the Muslim community to add to her firm support base among the Dalits. To win the trust of the community, BSP has fielded a large number of Muslim candidates.
Apart from the 24 seats it won in 2012, the BSP had finished second on over 30 seats.
With the Samajwadi Party joining hands with the Congress, the two parties are looking to improve their performance.
Samajwadi Party leader and UP minister Rajendra Choudhary said their main contest is with the BJP. "On some seats, the BSP and RLD have their presence but we are ahead in the contest. We will perform better than in 2012," Choudhary told IANS.
Muslims, Jats and Dalits have large presence in the seats going to the polls in the first phase in western UP. The members of the minority community are likely to vote for a candidate who is in a position to defeat the BJP.
Rajendra Choudhary said the community will overwhelmingly vote for SP-Congress. "I do not think their vote is getting divided," Choudhary said.
The RLD, which could have been part of SP-Congress alliance, is now contesting on its own. The party is seeking to revive its support base among the Jat and farming communities. The party has said it will not join hands with BJP after the assembly polls.
Pradeep Mathur, Congress MLA from Mathura, said the fight in western UP is between SP-Congress alliance and the BJP.
"BSP has very nominal presence. Majority of Muslim voters are with us and we are going to form the next government by winning around 40 seats (in this phase," Mathur told IANS.
Minister of Stare for Agriculture and BJP leader Sanjeev Balyan admitted that the situation was not good for the party as it was in 2014, when the BJP had led in over 65 of 73 assembly segments.
"But the most important thing is that BJP is in fight on each seat of Western Uttar Pradesh. As far as Jats are concerned, they are with BJP. Khaps never interfere in politics. We have fielded 18 Jat candidates. RLD will only cut votes. The fight here is between the BJP and the SP-Congress alliance," he said.
Hukum Singh, BJP MP from Kairana, also claimed that BSP was not in the picture anywhere.
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Although he has kept up a constant string of criticism against the ruling dispensation, Rahul Gandhi seems to agree with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP on one critical issue – India’s foreign policy

Rahul Gandhi says Muslim League a 'secular party', BJP retorts 'it's his compulsion to remain acceptable in Wayanad'
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Thursday said that Muslim League is a completely secular party and there is nothing non-secular about the outfit, drawing a sharp condemnation from the BJP