UPA is safe for now, but it will have to rethink its alliances

Now that it’s all over bar the shouting, it’s time to assess the impact of the four key Assembly polls on national politics. To summarise the results again: Mamata Banjeree has won big in Bengal (218 seats won or leading to Left’s 68), Jaya in Tamil Nadu (191 to DMK’s 40), Tarun Gogoi in Assam (getting 76, a clear majority, to 48 for rest) and the Congress-led UDF in Kerala – the last by a small margin, 72 seats to LDF’s 66. The overwhelming victory of Mamata in West Bengal means she does not need the Congress’ support to rule in the state, but she has no reason to go her own way either because she needs the Congress for channelling central resources to the state. Thus far, she has been doing it through the railway ministry (she was more the Railways Minister for West Bengal than for India). Now she can use her clout to demand even more. [caption id=“attachment_9219” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Railways Minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee waves to supporters outside her residence in Kolkata. Banerjee is set to be the new chief minister in West Bengal after her party defeated the Communist party in power. Reuters”] [/caption] In short, Mamata could play the role that Chandrababu Naidu did in the NDA government, but with a difference: Naidu stayed outside the government and got Vajpayee to give him the moolah to deploy in the state,: Mamata can demand it both ways – by being inside government, and by demanding it like Naidu. The Congress needs her more than she does the Congress. The Congress will have two tough challenges in dealing with her: one is the Land Acquisition Bill, which she was opposing in view of the stand she took in Singur, which saw the Tata Nano project packing up and leaving for Gujarat. The other relates to the Centre’s policies on how to deal with the Naxals (also known as Maoists). The Maoists have been quietly supporting her in Bengal, but she will now have to distance herself a bit from them. It will be a tough act to pull off, and the Centre will also be hamstrung in its war against Maoism if she keeps taking up their cause. In Tamil Nadu, the Jayalalithaa victory presents both opportunities and challenges for the Congress-led UPA. First, with the DMK being wiped out, it will be hoping to cling to power at the Centre so that it gets some help in dealing with the 2G scam cases. But the Congress has a different problem: a humiliated DMK will be an easier partner to deal with than a triumphant Jaya. More so, since Jaya is a difficult partner, as the Vajpayee government found out in the late 1990s. Her withdrawal of support precipitated the fall of the first Vajpayee government in 1998. On the other hand, Jaya also needs the Centre. During her previous administration, Jayalalithaa managed to play a pro-industry role and bagged both the Ford and Hyundai projects for the South. She managed to make Tamil Nadu relevant again as an auto hub, after the game looked like going entirely the Delhi way, with Maruti and Hero Honda ruling the roost. Jaya made Tamil Nadu a worthy rival, but was brought down by corruption and nepotism during her administration. .daylife_smartgalleries_container p { width: 100%; height: 100%; margin: 0; padding: 0; border: 0; background: transparent; } But this time around, she will have to play her cards differently. While she can go after the Karunanidhis – they are down, but not out, after the various scams – she will also need to perform. The electorate is looking for performance, not vendetta. The Tamil Nadu electorate has been promised all kinds of freebies by both fronts, and if she doesn’t deliver on her populist promises, she will flounder. To deliver, she needs resources, just like Mamata. And this means she needs the Centre, too. For both Sonia Gandhi and Jaya, it will be a tough call. They will probably play cat-and-mouse for a while before taking the plunge one way or the other. The Congress wins in Kerala and Assam work as morale boosters and have no significance for the stability of the alliance at the Centre. But the BJP will have to figure out what went wrong in Assam, and so will the AGP, which felt its regional agenda was being hijacked by the BJP with its anti-Bangladeshi sectarian cause. The Left will have the most wounds to lick, having lost both West Bengal (after 34 years) and Kerala. Like the BJP, the Left will have to reconsider its economic policies and global stand. The electorate no longer responds to ideological rhetoric the way it used to. And this is entirely the result of the fact that the Indian economy is doing well and opportunities are growing. The electorate is now focused how it can get ahead – and this means ideology will take a back seat. Corruption is occasionally an issue because it brings to light the fact that powerful interests are swallowing up money that could have gone to the poor. It’s a wake-up call for all parties – Left, Right and Centre.

UPA is safe for now, but it will have to rethink its alliances

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