UPA is hobbled, but mid-term polls may solve nothing

The chatter about mid-term elections, triggered off by the rout of the Congress in the recent round of Assembly elections, is being amplified in the echo chambers of politics. In the curious ways of ‘reverse psychology’ constructs, even denials from political leaders who claim they disfavour early elections are feeding the buzz. Political analysts are whipping out their calculators to build ‘what if’’ scenarios to get a sense of how the political landscape might change if one or more parties walk away from the UPA – and, in turn, others extend their support. Congress spokesperson Abhishek Manu Singhvi dismisses all talk of a mid-term election or of the emergence of a political ‘Third Front’ (as an alternative to the UPA and the BJP-led NDA) as ‘Mungeri Lal Ke Haseen Sapne’. Claiming that the Congress’ only significant loss in the recent round of Assembly elections was in Punjab, where it was expected to win, Singhvi downplayed the impact it would have at the central level. While gratuitous talk of a mid-term election might keep the Opposition parties in a heightened state of excitement, nothing would come of it, he added. [caption id=“attachment_240798” align=“alignright” width=“380” caption=“The UPA government is fated to die a thousand deaths. Rupak De Chowdhuri/Reuters”]  [/caption] Yet, for all of the attempts by Congress leaders to put on a brave face on the UPA government’s standing, their own actions betray their disquiet about the survival of the ruling coalition. Singhvi himself felt compelled to comment on the “immorality” of Mamata Banerjee’s apparent keenness to attend the swearing-in ceremonies for the new Chief Ministers in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. Congress leaders then reached out to Mamata Banerjee with offers of a “special package”, and ensured that she remains tethered to the UPA for now, but it’s only a “ marriage of inconvenience ”. The Congress’ charm offensive directed at potential allies was in full flow at Parliament House on Monday, when Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh reached out to Opposition leaders whom they see as critical to the survival of the government. Sonia Gandhi walked across to the newly victorious Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav and made solicitous enquiries in the general nature of his well-being. Mulayam Singh Yadav recriprocated the gesture, and barely hours later, his son and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister-designate Akhilesh Yadav dismissed all talk of a mid-term election. Over in the Rajya Sabha, Manmohan Singh too was, according to media accounts, seen reaching out to Opposition MPs. Later on Tuesday, Singh is hosting a dinner for leaders of UPA constituents, evidently to convey the message that the Congress will be more sensitive to the sensibilities of junior partners in the coalition. The government’s “kindler, gentler” image projection evidently extends even to the Opposition: Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal said the government had an open mind about taking suggestions from the Opposition on matters that will come up for discussion in the Budget session. Cowards die many times before their deaths: the UPA government’s palpitations, which have heightened after the election results, are easy to diagnose. The UPA constituents and its parties that fly in its orbit may be sticking together for now, but if association with the Congress is seen as a losing proposition, the situation can change dramatically. Even if the UPA government survives until 2014, which appears to be its sole intention, it will remain hobbled in the extreme, and susceptible to a thousand shocks from regional parties that are looking to milk its vulnerability for gain. In much the same way that the UPA has nothing to show for itself over the past three years, the next two may also be a washout. The country as a whole pays a high  price for this policy paralysis. Yet, the alternative – of a mid-term election – holds no certainty that it will throw up a decisive verdict, given the state of preparedness (or lack thereof) of all parties, including the principal Opposition, the BJP. There is also no ideological affinity among the various Opposition parties,  or even enough of a common ground that will bring them together on a platform. Yesterday in Parliament, Akhilesh Yadav was seen walking arm in arm with CPI leader Gurudas Dasgupta. That sight would certainly not have gratified Mamata Banerjee, the weakest link in the UPA chain. For sure, nobody wants to see a lameduck UPA government make a mockery of governance by surviving until 2014 on the strength of political skulduggery. But the alternative of a hung Parliament – with all the attendant uncertainty and venal politicking it will throw up – isn’t an inviting prospect either. That may account for why even the opposition parties are not going for the UPA government’s jugular and pressing for mid-term elections in its moment of supreme weakness. They would rather see the UPA government stew in its own juices for a little longer, thereby enhancing the prospects of the Opposition - whenever general elections are held.