UP election 2017: Akhilesh faces win-win situation despite expulsion from SP

With more and more fast-paced, mind-boggling developments upturning existing calculations in the aftermath of Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s expulsion from the Samajwadi Party, it’s hardly surprising if all the major players in Uttar Pradesh’s politics are seen to be burning the midnight oil to redraw their future strategies. Yes, the poll dynamics have changed. So very suddenly. And contrary to the assessment of their detractors, son Akhilesh and chacha Ram Gopal Yadav, who have called a special session of the party’s national delegates on 1 January, appear to be galloping ahead in a win-win situation. They know that, for all practical purposes, as much as two-third of the party is with them. Their strategy is clear: they will first attempt to take over the party exactly like Indira Gandhi had done in the later half of the 1960s. [caption id=“attachment_3182324” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav. PTI[/caption] Remember, Gandhi’s party was initially known as Congress-R. And R stood for Requisitionists as the iron lady had requisitioned a special session of the Congress to split the party formally. With the passage of time, Congress-R became Congress-I. Now, the same party is now known as Congress. Should they fail to replicate what Gandhi had done, Akhilesh and Ram Gopal would, in all probability, grab hold of Chandrashekhar’s Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP). This party with a banyan tree as its election symbol is still alive under Kamal Morarka. Together Ram Gopal and Morarka might move the Election Commission in the next few days to change the party symbol. They would want the banyan tree to be replaced by a motorcycle. No doubt, they have done their homework well. All their nominees, in this case, would fight the coming elections under the SJP banner. For the moment, the chief minister has dug his heels in. He has not resigned from the chief ministership. But don’t be surprised if he ultimately prefers to put in his papers to be seen as a martyr — and not as somebody who has revolted against his father. He might also recommend dissolution of the state assembly in the hours and days that follow. It’s now time to take a look at what other parties are doing in the dramatically changed scenario: the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wants Akhilesh to resign from office on “moral grounds” so that a President’s Rule can be imposed on the state without any fuss. The Congress is playing safe by refusing to let out its well-known eagerness for an alliance with the rebellious faction of the ruling party. And the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is, on its part, busy searching newer tools to attack the prevailing perception that Akhilesh is, in fact, a good boy who had thus far been caged in shackles by votaries of “goonda raj” within the Samajwadi parivar. Be that as it may, three things are clear now: first, Akhilesh has moved out of his father’s shadow. Fully and finally. Even in his silence, he seems to be calling the shots. More than 75 percemt of party MLAs and MPs are seen to be backing him. For instance, take the case of the party’s representatives in the Lok Sabha — four of the five MPs (Dimple Yadav, Dharmendra Yadav, Akshay Yadav and Tej Pratap) are Akhilesh camp-followers. The picture is, more or less, similar in the Rajya Sabha. And, if you can go by reports emanating from the village and panchayat levels across this far-flung state, an overwhelming section of the “Muslim-Yadav votebank” has already begun to drift towards the future star. Like it or not, it’s true. Second, the BJP and the BSP which looked well set to gain hugely from the war within the parivar do not look all that strong any longer. For, Akhilesh in his new avatar might, in fact, prove to be a bigger threat to them compared to Mulayam. And third, a pre-poll pact between Akhilesh’s outfit and Rahul Gandhi’s Congress is now a distinct possibility. You may recall that it was essentially Mulayam who didn’t want this tie-up to fructify. Left to him, Akhilesh would have clinched the deal months ago. But that was not to be under Mulayam’s tutelage. You may also recall in this context what Mayawati had been saying all along: “An alliance between the SP and the Congress can take place only if the BJP approves it.” Obviously, the BJP doesn’t want this alliance to take place. With adverse reports coming in from almost all the districts, Mulayam who had built this party brick by brick shedding both blood and sweat faces the biggest challenge of his otherwise illustrious political career. Perception-wise, the duo of chacha Shivpal and Amar is seen as the villain of the ongoing Samajwadi saga. Most of the supporters of the ruling party camp, in particular, and common masses, in general, think that it’s this duo that had poisoned the ears of the family patriarch against Akhilesh. They all want Mulayam to act against the “two villains” decisively. But perhaps, Neta_ji_’s hands are tied and vision blurred for reasons that only he knows. Time has raced past him in this generational battle for supremacy. It’s now too late for things to be rectified. But where is Amar Singh at this point in time? According to the primetime debate in CNN-News 18 last night, he is away in London waiting to celebrate the New Year Day even as repeated political earthquakes are causing tremors in Lucknow. Happy New Year by the way!