Two birds with one stone: What Modi's Rs 1.25 lakh cr package means for Bihar polls

Kashmir must wait and veterans of our armed forces can continue to wail. Since nothing induces a bout of magnanimity or provokes a promise better than an impending tough election, Bihar has finally got what it has been asking for: the assurance of a Rs 1.25 lakh crore development package. At an official-function-cum-rally at Arrah on Tuesday (18 August), Prime Minister Narendra Modi killed two political birds with one foundation stone when he announced the humongous package for Bihar. One, he deprived his rival, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, of the opportunity to crib that the Centre doesn’t want to help Bihar or give it proper attention. And two, he dangled a carrot in front of people of Bihar: vote for the BJP and you will get a huge amount for spending on development. Implicit in his announcement and electoral rhetoric is the warning that Bihar can’t trust ‘chara chors’ with this money, so vote well if you want this money. [caption id=“attachment_2397566” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar on Tuesday. PTI[/caption] The BJP believes Nitish has been stunned, left speechless. “Instead of thanking PM for the package, Nitish Kumar the drama queen of Bihar is doing vidhwa vilaap (wailing like a widow),” BJP leader Sushil Modi tweeted. Though the time frame for disbursing the package has not been specified, the promise of spending Rs 1,25,000,0000000 is a valid reason for the celebration in the BJP camp. The total population of Bihar (2011 census) is 10.41 crore. So, if the guaranteed dole is released, Bihar’s per capita investment would be nearly Rs 12000. As somebody joked on Twitter, if this much money comes to Bihar, soon there will be reverse brain drain into the state! The package and the resultant hype will help Modi. He is in the middle of a tough, make-or-break election. His success depends on how he is able to scythe through the rigid caste equations in the state with his development agenda, by showing the people of Bihar big dreams. The BJP has some unique problems in Bihar. For almost eight years, the party was a partner in the state government. During this period its leaders didn’t miss any opportunity to label Nitish as ‘Vikas Purush.’ The BJP’s tallest leader in Bihar, Sushil Modi, was a powerful minister and prominent face of the state government. Berating the government it partnered for lack of development, the BJP knows, would sound like opportunistic rhetoric. To complicate matters, soon after the BJP split with JD (U), Jitan Ram Manjhi became the CM. Manjhi is now part of the BJP parivar and attacking his term can be also be counterproductive. The BJP can beat Nitish by attacking his current ally Lalu Yadav and by arguing that it will do better than the current government on the development front. And this is where big bang announcements of huge investments help. How much of election-eve promises are believed by voters and how many of the IOUs are redeemed after polls is difficult to evaluate. Sometimes promises made under political compulsions come back to bite the back, as the one-rank-one-pension fiasco, the controversy over full statehood to Delhi and the jumla of bringing back black money have proved. In Kashmir, people are still waiting for the Rs 44,000 crore package the state government had sought for flood relief from the Centre. On 15 August, there were expectations in Srinagar that Modi will finally clear the package for rebuilding the state devastated by floods. Hope is now given way to dejection; the anger against the Centre and state government is adding to unrest in the Valley. But, Modi has to win Bihar at any cost, other states can wait. A defeat in the politically important state after the drubbing in Delhi will rob Modi of his sheen and revive the opposition. Since elections in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh are also on the horizon, Modi can’t afford a defeat so early in his career. So, the BJP is going all out to ensure that Nitish doesn’t return as CM. While development is high on the agenda, the party is also trying to juggle caste equations. It has deliberately floated lots of names — SuMo (OBC), Upendra Kushwaha (Koeri), Radha Mohan Singh (Rajput), Rajiv Pratap Rudi (Rajput), Nand Kishore Yadav (OBC), Giriraj Singh (Bhumihar) and Manjhi (Mahadalit) — for the CM’s post to ensure every caste group feels its leader can get the job. A subtle strategy has been adopted to snare Muslim voters, who are nearly 15 per cent of the electorate. Shahnawaz Hussain has been asked to camp in the state and appear at every important function. Modi’s visit to a mosque in the Emirates is also being highlighted by his spin doctors in Bihar as a symbol of the BJP’s willingness to embrace the minorities. How will Nitish deal with the overt development agenda and the covert caste calculus of the BJP? We will know on 30 August, when Nitish and Lalu kick off their campaign at a rally in Patna.