The real battle is between Modi's aura and the local pulse

Manabhai Veerabhai Chaudhary is your quintessential Gujarati farmer. He works hard in his fields near Dharat taluka in Banaskanta district and hopes to save some money to meet an additional expenditure that looms ahead in the form of a family function early next year. As electioneering is coming to a close, he is keeping close tabs on political developments. In the initial five minutes of his conversation with Firstpost, Chaudhary expressed unhappiness with the local BJP candidate, and it appeared likely that the Congress’s main plank of focusing on local grievances was working. The Congress has charged Narendra Modi with creating a rural-urban divide and not caring enough for farmers and villages in the hinterland. But a few minutes into the conversation, he starts praising Narendra Modi, and hoped that the country had some more political leaders like him. He goes on to add: “Modi jaisa neta paida nahi hua. Woh 100 taka khada hai, dimagdar hai aur ekdam hartal hai (No leader is like Modi; he is 100 percent clear, wise and strong.") Chaudhary denies there is a rural-urban divide in terms of administrative unconcern. He belongs to a Patel sub-caste that is neither Leuva nor Karva. [caption id=“attachment_558473” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Can Modi’s charisma result in victory for local candidates? PTI[/caption] But given his grievances, would he vote for Congress? Pat came the reply: “I never said I will vote for the Congress because Modi has not delivered. Our problem is at the taluka level and the Congress candidate is better known to us.” At the behest of local Congress workers, he had gone to hear Rahul Gandhi at nearby Palanpur a day ago. But he returned unimpressed. “Woh abhi naya hai. Abhi dekho, usko samay lagega.  (He is new in politics and will take time to mature).” Popular responses in north Gujarat, which will go to the polls on 17 December, or in Saurashtra, which voted on 13 December, are clearly indicative of one thing: in places where the Congress has a chance, it’s because of the quality of the local candidate and not the party itself. The party helps only in terms of symbol identification. In the BJP’s case, its winnability is more the result of the Modi charisma. This does not mean the quality of the candidate does not count, but when other things are equal, Modi’s aura is decisive. In the absence of clear state-level leadership, lack of a substantive poll plank or anti-incumbency mood, and the inability of Rahul and Sonia Gandhi to make a big impact, the Congress candidate has only his personal strength working for him. Modi’s candidates have the aura of the leader working their favour. Modi obviously loves this adulation. He makes no pretense of being humble. On the last day of campaigning for the second and last phase of polling for 95 seats, Modi could not have been more blunt and straightforward on this issue. Asking people to vote in large numbers, he asked them to press the button for Kamal ((the BJP election sysmbol), adding: “As you press the button for Kamal, your vote will be registered directly to my account. Your vote is for me.” Neither the crowd nor the candidate seems to mind this blurring of differentiation between party and leader, candidate and party. But then, in this election, Modi is the issue - both for his fans and his critics. Modi began his campaign long before the elections were announced with his Vivekananda Youth Festival, and he had hit his stride well before his rivals had got into the act. Vote or no vote, Modi occupies the biggest mindspace for voters in Gujarat. Take another farmer from Banaskanta. Reevabhai Bheel, who by appearance looked like a marginal farmer and had no grudges against Modi. He said Modi had done some good work and the people in his village got 24 hours electricity at home and eight hours in the farm. The water from the Sabarmati canal flowed into his village and “Gauvansh” cows and buffaloes had some insurance. He has yet not decided about his vote. An affluent looking Magan Patel, a Karva Patel, from Kansera village in Banaskanta, tills his land with a tractor. He appeared to be an avid Modi admirer and it did not matter to him who was the local candidate of the BJP. His vote was for the continuance of the Modi government. The Gujarat village appears different from those in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. These villages have roads and electricity, as also other forms of connectivity. But popular aspirations for better amenities have been rising consistently, and this means no incumbent can afford to be complacent. Move some 70 km to Sidhpur, and the story appears to be no different. Farmers seem to harbour no resentment against Modi, but their grievances are directed against local officials or even the person put up by the BJP as the candidate. Some others like Jagatsinh Sambhuji in Khadi village in Sidhpur, who will vote for the Congress, concede that 24-hour power supply was one good thing done by Modi. His grievance was that the water was not coming to his side of the taluka. Moreover, he finds the Congress candidate from the constituency, Balwant Singh Rajput, a better prospect than the BJP’s Jai Narain Vyas, a minister in the Modi government and three-time MLA. Vyas is the public face of the Modi government in the media for he is a government spokesperson. But his constituency has been carved up differently after the delimitation exercise, and this has made his prospects tougher than before. Balwant Singh Rajput is the richest candidate in this election, having declared assets of Rs 268 crore. The impression about him in parts of the constituency is that nobody returns from a meeting with him empty-handed. Firstpost caught up with him in the heat and dust of campaigning and asked him how difficult it was for him to seek votes when everyone knew he was very rich. He laughed and replied that he was used to it. He was contesting for the third time and had grown from rags to riches, from being the son of a humble tea-stall owner to Chairman-cum-Managing Director of Gokul Oils. He claimed that his intention was to serve the people and various trusts had been created to do charity in the area. His BJP rival Vyas said nobody becomes a public figure by being rich, and said he himself had helped transform Sidhpur from a “dying city” to an emerging business and medical facilities centre. Vyas’ supporters are banking heavily on Narendra Modi’s public rally in the constituency for mobilising public support in his favour. And that is the real story of this election: Modi is what matters.