The political calculations behind PM Modi's late night cabinet surprise

True to his reputation, Narendra Modi had a few surprises in his reshuffle cum expansion of the union Council of Ministers, which he only revealed at the last minute, close to midnight on Sunday.

The over 10-hour long wait for ministers, bureaucrats, media and others concerned, was becoming somewhat suspenseful. But then rapidly intensifying tensions with the Shiv Sena kept the news flow abuzz, and shifted the talking point from this unusual delay in announcing the final portfolios.

The allocations no doubt will delight many, but there will also be a substantial number of people who are bound to be disappointed and upset. But given the command and control Modi enjoys, it is highly unlikely that such discontent will be made public.

A look at the allocation of portfolios to 65 ministers (26 Cabinet and 29 Ministers of State including 13 with Independent Charge) clearly indicate that Modi has broadly classified his colleagues into two categories.

The first group comprises those he considers to be performers, to whom he has assigned important ministries. The Second are those he has inducted to correct regional political and social (caste & community) balances.

The ministers in the latter category have been given Lalbatti (red beacon) cars, a chamber, a bungalow, personal staff and letterhead to give them the impression of importance, but they don’t really have any effective work to perform.

Here are some insights we can glean from the midnight announcement of names:

To begin with, the official statement confirmed that Manohar Parrikar would be the new Defence Minister of the country while Sadanand Gowda was shunted out of railways. Firstpost had earlier written about these potential changes.

The surprises come thereafter – Suresh Prabhu who took BJP membership on Sunday morning, officially ending his soured relations with Shiv Sena, is new Railway Minister.

Prabhu is a proven administrative and political talent. Modi wants the Railways to succeed on all fronts where Gowda failed in last five months, by bringing in systemic reforms.

The other big surprise was the announcement that the powerful Arun Jaitley, who relinquished the Defence Ministry portfolio to focus on Finance, will also head the Information and Broadcasting (I&B) ministry.

This means he will lead the Modi government’s official publicity and propaganda machinery to ensure a connect to people all over the country.

Ace shooter and first time MP from Jaipur, Colonel Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore who was sworn in as Minister of State earlier in the day will be his deputy in the ministry. Prakash Javdekar will retain charge of the environment and forest ministry.

Jaitley has great equations with media but the move has still surprised many.

If Modi made him relinquish defence to concentrate on the revival of economy and concentrate fully on the budget making exercise then why burden him with I&B ministry, which is a critical portfolio from Modi’s perspective? He is also not in the best of health. It’s not clear whether Col. Rathore was his choice to be his deputy in Shastri Bhawan.

Party sources, however, suggest that additional charge of I&B portfolio to Jaitley is indicative of the fact that Modi fully trusts his abilities to handle multiple assignments in one go. He also has charge of a third ministry, Company affairs, which will be closely scrutinising Robert Vadra’s supposed business ventures.

If changes in I&B were not big enough, the health Ministry too had some surprise in store. Dr Harshvardhan is out, shifted to the less significant Science, Technology and Earth Sciences ministry. JP Nadda is the new Health Minister.

Sources, however, said Dr Harsh Vardhan has not been shifted out of the health ministry because he fell short in either his performance or integrity.

Harsh Vardhan’s performance in the ministry was perfectly up to the mark and his integrity remains beyond doubt. However he has been moved to a stress free portfolio so that he can also easily spare time for campaigning in the Delhi assembly polls.

Victory over Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is critical for the BJP in Delhi and the party still does not have a better face to checkmate him, sources said.

Chaudhary Birendra Singh, the Jat leader from Haryana who had moved to the BJP before state assembly polls, gets the vital rural development ministry, replacing Nitin Gadkari.

Singh had a forty year long association with the Congress before the polls. He was Rajeev Gandhi’s favourite and his last held position was that of a CWC member in Congress. But he was never made a minister.

Modi is trying to convey a message to socially dominant Jats in Haryana, Western UP and Rajasthan that he cares for the community. But it is surprising to many to see the PM putting so much trust on a turncoat, placing him in such a vital ministry.

Gadkari will now only have Surface Transport and shipping.

Incidentally, none of the four new Cabinet Ministers are from the Lok Sabha and three are not even MPs. Nadda is from the Rajya Sabha. Parrikar, Prabhu and Singh would have to be accommodated in the Rajya Sabha in due course.

If one thought Ravi Shankar Prasad was doing a good job as Law Minister, Modi has made him relinquish Law and retain the IT & Communications ministry. Gowda is Law minister.

Sources said Prasad had done his part, getting the most contentious amendments in the Judges appointments bill cleared by Parliament and in any case will work under Jaitley’s guidance.

The allotment of work to Ministers of State with Independent charge is no less interesting.

The most high profile inductee in this list was Rajeev Pratap Rudi, a former civil aviation minister and party national general secretary.

He has to take care of the Skill Development & Entrepreneurship ministry and be deputy to Venkaiah Naidu in Parliamentary Affairs while dealing with the Lok Sabha.

One could argue that skill development was Modi’s focus area, but currently there is not too much of work in it for a minister.

Parrikar’s colleague from Goa, Shripad Naik, has been shunted out of Tourism and Culture to be minister of AAYUSH. First timer Dr Mahesh Sharma gets Tourism and culture.

Another celebrated inductee, Mukhtab Abbas Naqvi becomes Najma Heptullah’s deputy in the Minority Affairs Ministry. Everyone had earlier assumed that he had MoS Independent Charge status but it was later clarified that he was just an MoS, which is the same position that he held in 1998 in the Vajpayee government.

Naqvi has long been the Muslim face of the party and has been its seniormost vice president. He is sure to be disappointed but is expected to keep his cool for the moment.

Former finance minister Yashwant Sinha’s IIT and Harvard educated son Jayant Sinha will be Arun Jaitley’s deputy in the finance ministry. He and his father are very happy and sources said Jayant Sinha looks set for a bright future.

Of the 21 ministers sworn-in on Sunday, the TDP’s YS Chowdary was the only one from outside the BJP. Party supremo, AP Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu was present in the swearing-in ceremony at Rashtrpati Bhawan. Chowdary gets the consolation prize, junior minister in Science and Technology ministry.

Modi seems to be sending a message that he will rely only a select team for actual work. The others, who are only important because because of the social and political value, can make merry with Lalbatti halos and ministerial letterheads, till they prove their usefulness in their ultimate Boss’s idea of governance.