The 'Maha' divorce: Here's what finally ended BJP-Shiv Sena 25-year alliance

The end of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance after a 25-year partnership is, without a doubt, one of the biggest political shockers this year, arguably trumping the decimation of the Congress led UPA at the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. While the Congress defeat was expected – though the magnitude came as a surprise – this political divorce blindsided even the most seasoned of political observers. [caption id=“attachment_1730669” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Shiv Sena activists protest against BJP outside Matoshree in Mumbai. PTI[/caption] Although trouble had been brewing for weeks, political pundits and even members of the two parties never really believed that the alliance would actually fall apart. Amid accusations, counter accusations and horse trading for seat share, there was an underlying assumption that ‘something’ would be worked out. After all, the two parties were ‘ideological’ partners and the Shiv Sena was the BJP’s oldest ally. So what went wrong? Did the Shiv Sena take too much for granted? Did it read the new leadership of the BJP all wrong? Or did the Modi wave make BJP over-confident and over-demanding of its allies? A report in Mid Day identifies the final straw that broke the back of the BJP-Sena electoral camel: the Bhusawal assembly constituency in Jalgaon district, which belonged to the Shiv Sena under the old seat sharing agreement, “The BJP had promised the seat to the constituency’s current MLA and ex-minister, Sanjay Savkare, who left the NCP recently to join the party," Mid-Day reports. The report quotes a senior Sena leader as saying, “We had agreed to everything, from exchange of seats to the numbers for seat sharing, but the BJP leaders were adamant that they wanted the Bhusawal seat, and we couldn’t give it to them. That one seat was the bone of contention”. The other factor was reportedly senior state BJP leader Eknath Khadse, whose daughter-in-law is the sitting MP from the Raver Lok Sabha constituency, under which the Bhusawal assembly seat falls. Mid-Day reports that the Shiv Sena blames Khadse for the final break up of the alliance, saying “Party sources said that things began taking a turn for the worse in the afternoon, when Khadse returned from Jalgaon, where he had gone to file his nomination papers.” The decision to end the alliance had also reportedly been taken at a meeting held at Khadse’s residence, and it was he who informed Uddhav Thackeray of the BJP’s decision – reneging on assurances made by national BJP stalwarts like Amit Shah and Om Mathur who had personally assured Thackeray that seat tussle would be sorted out. The BJP’s primary grouse centred on the Shiv Sena’s move to cut the seat share of smaller allies to give the BJP the 130 seats they were demanding. As Firstpost reporter Vishwas Waghmode noted , “The reason that the BJP seems unwilling to budge from their demands of more seats for their smaller allies is because these ties were forged very recently. These allies were made prior to the Lok Sabha elections and they had played a crucial role in ensuring the victory of several BJP candidates in Western Maharashtra and Marathwada region”. “It is not right on the part of the Sena to reduce the four small allies’ seats to accept our demand of 130 seats. Since these four partners together can make an impact on the outcome of 50 assembly seats in the Western Maharashtra and Marathwada, they cannot be ignored and should be given an honorable number of seats,” a BJP leader had told Firstpost. There was also a feeling within the BJP, that they had no reason to respect Uddhav Thackeray, who was not the man his late father was. “Uddhav should realise he is no Bal Thackeray and things are different in 2014. They can’t be given a free run”, a BJP leader told Firstpost last week. Whatever the reason for the split, and despite the sweetly worded BJP announcement – promising to maintain “friendly” relations despite the split – the divorce is likely to turn ugly during campaign season. The Telegraph quoted one BJP leader as saying, “We are bracing ourselves for a bitter fight against the Sena. I tell you, it will be more bitter than our campaign against the Congress-NCP”. And if Aditya Thackeray’s emotional Twitter meltdown is anything to go by, then we can expect nothing less from the Shiv Sena. In a series of tweets, he said:

“Very sad tht State BJP chose to part ways with 25 yr old ally Shiv Sena when we stuck together even in their Bure Din, unconditionally… For the last 5 days, I purposely chose not to comment on it, as for some State BJP leaders my age was more important thn my effort for unity. It did break the deadlock in talks but then sadly, another speed breaker… ego of vested interests saw my age than the effort. I hope the perception n importance of youth in the eyes of these some State leaders really changes, sometime soon, fr the good of the nation..For us, bigger the challenge, more the effort and victory! Every Shiv Sainik n believer of Hon’ble Balasaheb will ensure #UThaMaharashtra.”

His public sentiments echoed far darker allegations made by an unnamed Sena leader who told Mid-Day, “A leader from the BJP had warned us in June that the party would ditch the Sena as that is what it was doing to its allies across the country. But we did not believe him as we were in an alliance and we had no intention of seeing it end. We didn’t even prepare properly for fighting separately." However all may not be over yet. In the event of a hung assembly, we could still be looking at a post poll alliance between the two ‘ideological’ partners. The Daily Telegraph quoted an unnamed BJP leader as saying, ““If there’s a hung Assembly again, we cannot rule out the possibility of the BJP and the Sena coming together afresh to cobble up a majority”. But will Sena forget and forgive? Perhaps since in politics, the prospect of power can often heal the deepest wounds. In the meantime, prepare yourself for a very bitter - and dare we say entertaining - three weeks before polling starts in Maharashtra.