The 25 'swing' constituencies that could decide Delhi polls

The 2008 assembly election results point to an interesting fact. Of Delhi’s 70 constituencies, as many as 25 saw victory by margins of less than 5,000 votes. In ten of them, the margin of victory was less than 1,000 votes. For the Congress party, which saw victory in 43 seats in 2008, 15 were won by very slim margins. In the Rajouri Gardens seat for instance, the victory margin was a mere 46 seats. To understand this numbers game, it is also important to take a look at the main issues in these constituencies. Spread all across Delhi some of these seats are Narela, Burari, Malviya Nagar, Okhla, Shahdra, Vikas Puri, Tri nagar and Patparganj. Vikas Puri, one of Delhi’s largest constituencies, saw Congress MLA Nandkishore defeat BJP candidate Krishna Gehlaut by 943 votes in 2008. [caption id=“attachment_1220145” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  The battle for Delhi[/caption] Shafiq Rehman, who owns a kirana shop in Indira Camp, Vikas Puri, says he has traditionally been a Congress voter but may vote for some other party now. “Jhuggi walo ko koi nahi samajhta,” he says when asked which party will win in Vikas Puri. “ I voted for congress last time because we were told the jhuggis would get all the facilities-water, electricity and sanitation would be improved, but you can see none of that has changed, my wife still gets up early in the morning to get water from a mile away. I am not sure if I will vote for Congress anymore" Several other slum dwellers in Indira camp feel water and sanitation are key issues that political parties should address to target the voters. “ If we had a decent water facility, I would have been able to continue with my tea stall. Two years ago I had to shut shop because the water we fetched from near by was so not clean. But none of these concerns have been addressed. The local MLA only started visiting a few weeks ago,” adds Rehman’s brother Taariq. When Firstpost spoke to Nandkishore, the current MLA of Vikas Puri, he refused to accept that the situation in his constituency had not changed at all during his five-year tenure. “The water is a cause of concern but there are many things that we have done to improve the situation. We have installed pumps for drinking water, and we are trying to improve the sanitary condition of the slums", he said. But the Rehman family are not alone in their complaints. There are many other disgruntled voters in this constituency, which means that Nandkishore is going to be hard pressed to defend his seat. And this perilous situation is not only limited to Congress ruled constituencies. The BJP may have won 23 seats in 2008, but almost half of these (at least 10) were won with very slim margins. Even the Bhartiya Janata Party’s Chief Ministerial candidate, Dr. Harsh Vardhan, only won the Krishna Nagar constituency by around 2000 votes. “ We are aware that the numbers do not project good odds. We have formed teams who are working at a micro level, scrutiny is underway at booth levels, and teams are looking at constituencies armed with lists of voters . Every booth has 2000 – 2500 voters, our door to door campaigns have begun to address their concerns. This is not an unusual exercise but this time we are using more young guns to rope in the voters in these areas,” said Shivam Chhabra, who is the BJP youth wing, National Media co- in charge. When asked if the BJP had any targets for the 25 ‘swing’ constituencies in mind, Shivam said that the party had decided to field the same candidates that ran in 2008, including those who lost by slim margins. The question of course, is how this situation will benefit or influence the one year old Aam Aadmi Party, which is already threatening to tip the balance in Delhi. With AAP making a dent in the bipolar nature of Delhi’s polity, the close tussles for votes in these constituencies have become three way. AAP believes they are positioned best to make the best of the situation. “In Malviya Nagar, there are 131 booths,  of which one third are in posh localities, while the rest are in slum areas where voters are not interested in politics and political ideologies. They are concerned with civic amenities. There are several aam aadmi problems, water electricity etc, which all boil down to the fault of a corrupt system. AAP reaches out to the voters, there is personal interaction and they can address their concerns, unlike other parties where the MLA is a messiah who no one can question or point a finger at”, says Somanth Bharti, the AAP candidate from Malviya Nagar. “Whether AAP will benefit or not is an oversimplification, but one thing which is certain is that the issues Aam Aadmi party is touching upon are what drives the voters, the bijli- paani issues", says Sanjay Kumar, Professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. “The BSP did well in 2003 and 2008 in Delhi, while the margins have reduced more and more for the two major political parties. With the third wheel AAP also in the fray this time, these elections could result in more constituencies with tighter margins which will make the fight in Delhi tougher”, he adds.