Telangana agitations: Blown away by cyclone Phailin for good?

It took one storm to quieten down another in Andhra Pradesh.  Cyclone Phailin could not have come at a better time for the Centre as it allowed them to use the looming storm as a bargaining chip to convince striking Seemandhra employees to withdraw their agitation in 13 districts. The withdrawal is temporary, the employee unions claim vociferously. They say they have withdrawn their agitation on humanitarian grounds, in view of the extensive damage the cyclone is expected to cause. But the statements are met with deep skepticism by people, who believe this could be the beginning of the end of the Samaikya movement. While the brunt of the agitation was felt fully only when power employees joined the strike, their withdrawal seems to have triggered a series of announcements with the teachers’ JAC also calling off their strike and reporting back to duties today. [caption id=“attachment_1166285” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image of protests against Telangana. PTI[/caption] The developments proved right the skeptics who said that this movement would be difficult to sustain and the employees would crack under Government pressure sooner or later. As soon as the announcement was made, the state government promptly made a peace offering to the employees, saying they would get their full pay for the strike period, like the state employees from Telangana, who struck work for a whole month last year but got paid later. There is no doubt that there is great fury among the people in the Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra regions over the decision to form Telangana. It has been visible over the last few weeks, first in the form of  restrained objections and then unbridled protests after the Cabinet decision was pushed through. But with politicians out of the picture and the employees now withdrawing, not to mention the severe storm that is going to hit the coastal areas any time now, the fury has subsided. It is anybody’s guess whether it will be rekindled later given that all possibilities are pretty uncertain presently.

On the other hand, the fasts-unto-death by YSRCP president Jagan and TDP president Chandrababu Naidu have hardly been taken note of either by the Centre or by the protesters themselves. While Jagan’s fast has already been broken with hospitalisation, Naidu’s fast is also likely to be ended forcibly in a day or two.

Nevertheless, all those against the bifurcation clutch at straws and claim that the momentum will be sustained. The employees find solace in the fact that the government actually pretends to tremble at their threat that ‘they will resort to serious and sudden protests if the government cheats them’.

The Union ministers, who have resigned after the Cabinet Note, harp on the fact that they are supporting the people. Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy, who has been defiant, openly declared that the bifurcation was a long process and unlikely to happen before the 2014 elections. He mentioned all the efforts he is making to stop the process, including his request for a special package for Telangana, and that it should be noted that employees in Seemandhra are agitating without seeking any support from political parties.

There has not been much political activity in the state in the recent weeks but the Centre appears to be moving forward quietly on the Telangana issue. A separate state could become a reality sooner than later, if one were to broadly interpret the unusually frequent statements by the Congress spokespersons. The Group of Ministers formed to debate the issue is also holding its first meeting today.

However, the briefings that are supposed to give clarity on issues arising out of bifurcation of the State, have resulted in creating more confusion with Digvijaya Singh, PC Chacko and Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde making contradictory statements.

The Congress party is likely to face many desertions now and possibly from the higher ranks of its leadership. This seems likely given the fact that many senior Congress leaders have been going to Andhra Pradesh Bhavan in New Delhi, to speak with the fasting TDP party chief. This flirting with the TDP and with YSRCP elsewhere, preceded by resignations by Union Ministers, is something that the Congress will be wary of.

Meanwhile, in spite of the withdrawal of the strike, the Centre is rushing an additional 30 companies of Central forces to the State, a move that points in the direction of President’s rule. An option that only the Congress party will be happy with.