Taking down Arvind Kejriwal: Congress's real Varanasi strategy

“There are takkars and then there are…”

Abdul Mohid,a Bahujan Samaj Party office bearer, paused for dramatic effect, chewed his paan thoughtfully and then carefully spat out a stream of paan juice before continuing.

“And then there are zabardast takkars. This is a zabardast takkar.”

“This”, of course, refers to the epic David vs Goliath fight between Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal in Varanasi. The Lok Sabha seat of Varanasi had over 30 contestants but in the last few days of the campaign, if one went by caps, flags and three-wheelers spouting propaganda in the narrow lanes of the holy city, the only two who mattered were Modi and Kejriwal.

Then something funny happened on the way to the polls.

The largely missing-in-action Congress candidate Ajay Rai resurfaced. Some private polls suggest he might even emerge as Number 2. Others suggest, even if he does not, he helped sink Kejriwal’s boat. Sitting near the polling station in the crowded Benia Bagh market, Arshad, an AAP worker was bursting with anger. He alleged that late in the afternoon, Rai or Rai’s men told voters in areas like Ramakantnagar colony to vote for the BJP. They indicated “kamal khilana” (let the the lotus bloom) said Arshad.

It’s not something Arshad can prove. But he said there is a precedent. In 2009 when the BJP’s Murali Manohar Joshi was struggling to win Varanasi, Rai apparently switched his votes over at the last minute to help Joshi eke past Mukhtar Ansari, a formidable local strongman with a criminal record. This year when Rai got into trouble for flashing his electoral symbol inside the polling booth, Joshi came to his defence on national television. Oddly, Rai also won the support of Ansari who allegedly masterminded his brother’s killing.

“Mark my words,” said Arshad darkly. “He will join the BJP after this election.” Rai, after all, is an old BJP hand. He started out in BJP student union politics. He’s won from the area several times on a BJP ticket and he started party hopping when he was denied a ticket.

The truth, or at least an inkling of it will come out on the 16th when the actual margins of victory are known. But what this points to is the challenge the Aam Aadmi Party faces and poses as it tries to enter into unknown territories and with their complicated and confounding histories of local alliances and loyalties.

When Kejriwal went on his mega road show down the streets of Varanasi two days before the election, it was meant to be a show of strength to consolidate the anti-Modi vote. “There might be 20 percent or so that will vote for the party that is winning,” says Prerna Prasad, media liaison for AAP. “The road rally would give them confidence that this is winnable.”

AAP was elated by the response to the rally, unaware of Rai’s plan to scuttle any potential momentum gained by Kejriwal.

On election day, his followers put out word that the local Muslim community had switched its vote at the last minute to Rai which caused huge confusion. Until then the word on the street was that Kejriwal was the one most likely to give Modi a good fight. The local Madani waqf committee had even announced its support for Kejriwal. Now Govind Sharma, a ward commissioner of the Congress in the Assi Ghat area claimed that on Sunday night, both Sunni and Shia leaders had endorsed Rai.

Sitting on a chair on the road in the Madanpura area where the Banarasi sari weavers live, Haji Abdur Rahim dismissed the claims and counter-claims.

“First off, there was no fatwa. The media calls everything a fatwa when it might be a mere suggestion. Our maulanas only said give the vote to the person who can do the most for the country. And we have many organisations. Even if some endorsed Rai, they are not very influential. People make their own decisions.”

But it certainly helped cause a lot of confusion. Until then Kejriwal had been talking about an undercurrent to counter what the BJP was bragging about as a Modi tsunami. The BSP was pretty much sitting out the election. Influential Apna Dal leaders were helping AAP openly. Samajwadi councillors had been seen on stage with Kejriwal who had mounted an aggressive high-touch campaign.

The campaign had actually impressed many in the Muslim community. “To come to an unknown city among unknown people with no organisational base in the city and really shake the city is amazing,” marveled Rashid Khan, a diamond merchant. “People used to know who to vote for here, whether it was Congress or SP or BSP. Kejriwal upset the entire calculation.”

But Kejriwal also posed a bigger threat to Rai than the likes of Modi. If Modi became prime minister he’d likely have little time for Varanasi and would rely on BJP local hands to manage it for him. Those were people, Rai, with his long links to the BJP could count on. But Kejriwal with his zeal for transparency clean governance could threaten Rai’s old school political clout in the city.

So Rai called in old favours, relationships that Kejriwal had no way to counter, say Muslims in this city. He reminded people that he was the one who was around when they had property disputes or when they needed urgent help late at night.

“We just called him the other day when an old derelict building collapsed at 1:30 in the night,” said Shiraz Khan. “If there’s a wedding he will show up to bless the couple even if he has not been invited.”

“He stressed he was the local leader who would be around 24 hours a day, he would be available whenever anyone had a problem,” said Rashid Khan. “When he says ehsaan ke badle ehsaan (a favour for a favour) it’s hard for many to refuse.”

And Kejriwal, despite intensive outreach, had one problem. “Has Kejriwal come here to win or to make Modi lose?” wondered veteran Varanasi Congress leader Sampooran Tiwari.

On the streets of Varanasi the consensus was still that Kejriwal remained the favourite as the challenger to Modi but journalism professor RN Tiwari said in Muslim areas the vote was split between Kejriwal and Rai though he guessed Kejriwal came out on top there. In Hindu areas Modi romped home and it’s unclear whether Rai nipped Kejriwal or vice versa. In Tiwari’s opinion Kejriwal will come in second though other surveys suggest Rai could have pulled off a last-minute surprise.

Of course, the fight for number 2 is largely of academic interest. For Modi’s followers, the focus was different. “We were told to only think about the margin,” said Sanjeeb Mukherjee, a BJP supporter waiting to vote at Bangalitola. “It had to be over 2 lakh. And the split between Kejriwal and Rai helped us.” And Modi can thank the Congress party for that election day gift.  While Kejriwal was busy taking on Modi, Rai was busy taking down Kejriwal.

There will be a lot more number crunching and what-if scenarios analyzed once the actual numbers are available after May 16th. But Dipak Malik, retired professor from Benaras Hindu University and emeritus director of the Gandhian Institute hopes Kejriwal would not be too disheartened.

“It was good for him to come to Benaras. Here he got the full flavour — rural, urban, semi-rural, caste, religion, mafia and more. In Delhi he would not have understood India.”