Tackling an emboldened oppn: With Jaya in jail, AIADMK needs to up its game

Probably fearing the fury of the AIADMK workers, the opposition parties in Tamil Nadu had chosen to remain more or less silent on Jayalalithaa’s jail sentence, but on Wednesday they seemed to have come out of their shell. As if in a chorus, the leaders of three principal opposition parties, the DMK, the DMDK and the PMK, have spoken out against the law and order situation in the state and demanded action. While the DMDK, the AIADMK’s estranged ally, restricted itself to the law and order situation, the other two parties didn’t spare Jayalalithaa. [caption id=“attachment_1749831” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] J Jayalalithaa. PTI[/caption] DMK chief M Karunanidhi said in a statement after a meeting with district secretaries of his party that Jayalalithaa alone was responsible for her situation. He said that she had created a situation that there was no one to question her, and that her fall was a lesson for all. He even said that Jaya had “unknowingly” helped “us” revive the Dravidian movement. The party also hit out at AIADMK workers for their protests across the state and demanded central government’s intervention against their ‘atrocities’. In a resolution at the secretaries’ meeting, the DMK flayed the party for criticising special court judge Michael Cunha and that it was organising protests without police permission. The constitutional machinery in the state has completely broken down, it said. PMK leader S Ramadoss even went a step ahead when he said that the AIADMK leader’s political career has virtually ended. He wanted the state government to claim Rs 1000 crore from AIADMK workers for the damage to public properties that they have caused. Notwithstanding its opposition to Presidential rule, the party wanted temporary imposition of Article 365 in the state. DMDK leader Vijayakanth, however, was less scathing on Jayalalithaa. He asked the chief minister O Panneerselvam to fulfill his constitutional responsibility. “Instead of blaming the opposition parties, he should rule the state well,” he said and added that the law and order situation in the state had collapsed and that the police was nothing but a mute witness. On the disproportionate assets case, he said instead of fighting it legally, the AIADMK was trying to drag it to the streets. The breaking of silence by the opposition parties is significant because they have been circumspect for more than ten days since the special court judgement. The change of attitude is most probably a result of the realisation that with Jaya in jail there is nobody in the AIADMK who is either empowered or skilled to take on them. Other than the wailing and demonstration of misdirected fury on the streets, there hasn’t been any strategy by the AIADMK to counter the possible opposition voice. Jaya’s jail sentence has been the biggest challenge that the AIADMK has faced since 2001, but the party or rather Jaya, didn’t seem to have strategised on how to face an adverse court verdict. The party definitely looks lost at least for the time being despite a hugely successful run by their leader in power. If Jaya continues to be in jail, the chinks will show up easily and the opposition, which had been clueless as to how to stage a come-back, will try their best to exploit the situation. The principal reason for this situation is the lack of a second or third line of leadership. Jaya has been AIADMK and AIADMK has been Jaya. Other than her, there is no other leader of consequence in the party who has the authority or skill to step in in the even of a crisis. Had Panneerselvam, who was Jaya’s natural nominee for the chief ministership in 2001 and now, been a real successor - albeit temporarily - he could have handled the pressures of the opposition as well as governance reasonably well. Despite Jaya’s obvious blessings, the state has never heard him as a senior political leader of the AIADMK. And he is unlikely to change overnight. This challenge of the lack of political empowerment will come in the way of governance with the state going to elections in less than two years. As the head of a big and progressive state, Panneerselvam would have to take a call on several policy and governance issues on a day-to-day basis. If he is worried about the consequences of his decisions, without knowing what’s on Jaya’s mind, the state will be in a limbo. The DMK, in comparison, has a second line of leadership in Stalin, although it stays with Karunanidhi’s family. It’s a tremendous advantage for the party. Even the PMK has another line of leaders who can speak and stand in for Ramadoss. The situation in the AIADMK and the difficulty that Panneerselvam faces now are not likely to change unless Jaya comes out of jail. The best that the party can do is to hope that their leader will get bail from the Supreme Court and she could run the government by proxy from Chennai.