Sushma's support for 'Modi as PM': What it means--and doesn't

How significant is BJP leader Sushma Swaraj’s statement that Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is a fit candidate for the Prime Minister’s post? The statement is being read, not entirely unfairly, as the first public endorsement of Modi for the top job by someone who herself is considered a contender for the post in the event that the BJP, or rather the NDA that it heads, returns to power. This is perhaps the first time that she has gone even halfways towards ’endorsing’ Modi’s name, which is significant in itself. On previous occasions, when the subject did come up, she - and other BJP leaders in Delhi - took refuge in non-committal statements such as that there were many contenders within the BJP for the Prime Minister’s post. But when you parse Sushma Swaraj’s statement in Vadodara on Saturday even just a bit, it doesn’t come across as quite the ringing endorsement of Modi that it is being projected as. [caption id=“attachment_516325” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Sushma Swaraj’s statement is not without significance, even if it isn’t quite a ringing endorsement of Modi. AFP[/caption] The circumstances in which Sushma Swaraj gave expression to that sentiment provide the political context in which it ought to be read. For instance, her comment wasn’t an open-hearted endorsement of Modi that she made pro-actively with no prompting -  for instance, in her public speech. It was a measured response to a question from newspersons on the sidelines of the Vadodara rally on what  she thought of the chatter surrounding Modi’s candidacy as a Prime Minister. Now, there are some some questions that are hard to answer one way or another. (“Have you stopped beating your wife?” for instance.) When Sushma Swaraj, a national leader of the BJP who is also the Leader of the Opposition, is in  Gujarat on a campaign tour, less than month ahead of the Assembly election in a state that Modi literally owns  in a political sense (and tops opinions polls even at the national level on preferred choice for Prime Minister), is asked a direct question on his candidacy for the top job, there is absolutely no way that she could have said he isn’t a fit-enough candidate. For even one so gifted an orator as Sushma Swaraj, there was only way to answer that question without triggering a controversy: and that is, to acknowledge Modi as having all the qualities required to become a Prime Minister. Which is what she did. The fact that she didn’t build on that statement or say anything more open-heartedly effusive about Modi’s candidacy too speaks volumes. It points to an abiding inhibition among the central leadership of the BJP to enthusiastically embrace Modi as the party’s face for the next general elections, whenever they are held. Some of this, of course, springs from the fact that Modi has in a sense become larger than the BJP, which is a deeply disqueting consideration  for the party’s central leaders. But it is just as true that the core BJP leadership is also acutely aware that the party’s mothership, the RSS, too hasn’t yet made up its mind about endorsing Modi, and therefore doesn’t want to be seen to be jumping the gun. As this commentary points out,  the RSS “fears” the rise of Modi, and considers him not unlike a scorpion that has positioned itself on an idol of Shiv, which can neither be removed with one’s hand (for fear of being stung) nor beaten away with a shoe (for fear of desecrating the idol). In the blogger’s estimation, this tension between Modi and the RSS can be explained only in part by the Sangh’s “Brahmanical fetish”. It is “essentially rooted in (the) Sangh’s inability to come to terms with (the) meteoric rise of Modi and his remarkable transformatoin into a mass leader based on a brand of unique leadership model.” Some of the Sangh functionaries, he adds, see Modi as “an ambitious upstart who needs to be reined in.” In that sense, Modi’s biggest opposition - if he does want to project himself as a candidate for the Prime Ministership - will emerge from within the RSS. And it is this that has thus far compelled even senior BJP leaders to hedge their pronouncements vis-a-vis Modi, even though they are happy to feed off the popular support he has among a cross-section of the party’s core supporters. In that context, therefore, Sushma Swaraj’s comment, even if it comes across as less than an open-hearted, ringing endorsement of Modi, is not entirely without significance. It shows that the centre of gravity of the BJP is gradually shifting in favour of Modi, even if the pace of shift is somewhat glacial. Of course, all this is still premature talk for the BJP. As recent events have shown, the party has exhibited a manifest incapacity to leverage political currents to its advantage. And as the ongoing tug-of-war over its president Nitin Gadkari’s continuance in office shows, it has many internal battles to fight before it can project a unified face to the world. Half-hearted endorsements of Modi at this stage amount to no more than putting the cart before the horse in a situation where the BJP hasn’t been able to show how it can put itself in a winning position.