Survey: Naveen Patnaik in lead, it’s a one-horse race in Odisha

It is virtually a one-horse race in Odisha. Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) won 14 of the 21 seats in 2009. Nothing much has changed on the ground to indicate that it would end up with lesser seats in 2014. Naveen remains popular and his efficient handling of cyclone Phailin a few months earlier has added sheen to his leadership ability. He has no new challenger such as the AAP on the block to throw a scare. A Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll survey suggests, that he would repeat, even better, his previous performance if the elections are held now. The survey reveals that there has been a minor dip in the vote share of the BJD — from 37 percent in 2009 to 33 percent. However, the major gainer is not principal rival Congress, it is the BJP. The Congress’ vote share shrinks from 33 percent in 2009 to 31 percent in January 2014. The BJP’s vote share goes up from 17 to 25 percent. The party had been reduced to non-entity in the state in 2009 when it failed to open its account. In 2004, it had secured seven seats. [caption id=“attachment_1349701” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] PTI[/caption] The Modi factor has certainly worked for the party which remains weak when it comes to organization or local leadership. His popularity as the prime ministerial prospect, the survey says, has swelled from 15 percent in July 2013 – when an earlier tracker poll was conducted - to 33 percent now. [caption id=“attachment_1349747” align=“alignleft” width=“420”] Firstpost[/caption] Would his popularity be enough to establish the BJP as a strong contender to the BJD? The Congress is weak and Rahul Gandhi offers it no hope – his rating as the prime ministerial nominee has increased marginally from 17 percent to 19 percent - but it is too early to make any prediction. The survey was conducted earlier this month and it covered 978 respondents across the state. [caption id=“attachment_1349687” align=“alignleft” width=“420”] Firstpost[/caption] Naveen Patnaik, however, remains the unbeatable force in the state. The survey finds that the BJD is way ahead of the Congress. If elections are held at this point, it would capture 49 percent of the vote share compared to 28 percent of the latter. Voters in coastal area are satisfied with his handling of Cyclone Phailin and its aftermath. According to the survey, there has been some decline in the appreciation of the performance of his government in the last six months. In July 2013, 79 percent of 627 respondents had expressed satisfaction with his government, in the latest survey the number comes down to 67. However, the survey also finds that Naveen is more popular than his government. The AAP maybe creating waves elsewhere in the country, but in Odisha it remains a political non-entity. Nearly half the respondents had heard of AAP but only 12 percent showed interest in voting for it.