Survey forecasts BJP sweep: NDA to cross 275 seats

The BJP’s ambitious Mission 272, sometimes referred to as ‘Mission Impossible’ by political wags, could actually be on its way to being fulfilled! A new prepoll survey has, for the first time, predicted that the BJP-led NDA will get 275 seats in the Lok Sabha,  three more than what is needed to form the next government. The NDTV poll, conducted by Hansa Research, adds that the BJP will get 226 seats on its own, which would mark the party’s best ever performance in the polls. [caption id=“attachment_1480317” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] The BJP has much cause to celebrate: Naresh Sharma/Firstpost[/caption] The Congress tally on the other hand is expected to dip below 100 for the first time in the history of the party. The party is projected to win a paltry 92 seats on its own. The UPA on the other hand, is expected to win 111 seats. According to this TOI report , “The NDA’s projected victory is based on impressive gains compared to 2009 in Uttar Pradesh (a gain of 41 seats), Maharashtra (17), Rajasthan (17), Bihar (12), Andhra Pradesh (12) and Madhya Pradesh (10). In just these six states, it stands to gain 109 seats. In most other states too, the Narendra Modi-led alliance is projected to gain, though by more modest amounts.” The new numbers see a sharp rise of 16 seats for the BJP since a month ago, when Hansa conducted its last round of research. However the NDTV report states that there is a 2 percent margin of error in the survey that will need to be factored in, and adds that “the NDA crossing the magic 272 is heavily predicated on the BJP winning the 51 seats in UP that the latest opinion poll shows it winning”. Riders aside however, these latest numbers will undoubtedly give the BJP much cause to celebrate. It shows that the party’s aggressive strategy in Uttar Pradesh is working, that Amit Shah’s deft caste calculations in the state could be working too, and that despite many efforts by the opposition to deny it, the Modi wave is real. And what’s more, it is effective. Commenting soon after the release of the CNN-IBN CSDS-Lokniti poll tracker numbers earlier this month, Firstpost editor Dhiraj Nayyar said , “That the popular Narendra Modi—his popularity seems to exceed than that of his party—has since been declared as a candidate from Varanasi would aid the BJP’s momentum.” However, he also warned, “T_he battle isn’t won for the BJP yet. There may be hurdles. Mayawati’s BSP is usually under-estimated in opinion polls and could put up a stronger fight. However, if the opinion poll is correct, the 18 percentage point vote share gap between BJP and BSP will not be bridged by any margin of error. To mount a serious challenge, the BSP will need to pick up voters from outside its traditional constituencies.”_ The latest numbers are one more blow to the beleaguered Congress party, which has by now, more or less resigned itself to the fact that it is due to come in second. An internal survey by the party revealed that it was hoping that gains in Assam, Karnataka, Punjab and Kerala will take it to a tally of 120-140 seats, which would allow it to play the role of a ‘strong opposition’ under Rahul Gandhi. However going by what the Hansa poll is saying, even these numbers look a little bit unlikely. Along with all the predictions of doom coming its way, the Congress party is also having to deal with the embarrassment of the books released by former media advisor to the Prime Minister, Sanjaya Baru and ex-coal secretary PC Parakh which have more or less both agreed that Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister, but not the real power centre of the country.  Both books have been derided by the PMO and the UPA, with Manmohan Singh’s daughter Upinder Singh telling the Indian Express that the revelations were a ‘stab in the back’. According to a report in the Telegraph however, there is a clear attempt of Congress insiders to blame the PM for the party’s electoral woes – a strategy that gains greater meaning in the wake of Sanjaya Baru and PC Parakh’s revelations. There’s much hand-wringing over Manmohan Singh’s “failure to communicate” and “two yardsticks on morality” and more tellingly this: “Congress insiders said, harping on Singh’s clean image appears to have been counter-productive when the Prime Minister had failed to act against tainted ministers and those accused in the 2G, coal and Commonwealth Games controversies”.