Samajwadi ahead, but BJP is surprise package in UP

The race is on. Uttar Pradesh seems headed for an exciting finish as initial counting trends started pouring in with the Samajwadi Party clearly in the lead. In Punjab, the Congress appears set to keep its tryst with destiny and replace the Akali Dal-BJP combine in power. Early trends in 110 seats in Uttar Pradesh showed the Samajwadi Party ahead in 43 seats, the BJP in 33, the Bahujan Samaj Party in 16, Congress and its ally Rashtriya Lok Dal in 15, with “others” leading in the rest. The verdict in Uttar Pradesh seems to be against Mayawati rather than clearly in favour of anyone. In Uttarakhand, the BJP and Congress were neck-and-neck at 13 and 12 seats, and in Punjab the Congress was lagging at 15 compared to the 18 leads for the Akali Dal-BJP combine. [caption id=“attachment_235259” align=“alignright” width=“380” caption=“It’s SP vs BJP in UP. PTI”]  [/caption] The chances are that initial trends could undergo considerable change as the early leads could be coming from urban areas. But as of now, the Samajwadi Party looks set to become the single largest party in Uttar Pradesh, and Mayawati is staring at a huge defeat. The surprise element in Uttar Pradesh is the arrival of the BJP at No 2. A CNN-IBN-The Week post-poll survey – the only one to predict a huge victory for the SP - gave the SP a seat range of 232-250 seats in a 406-member assembly. That seems unlikely now. At 9.00 am, as counting trends were increasingly available, the SP was clearly headed for victory, with the BJP in second place. Congress-RLD combine was in fourth pace. Rahul Gandhi’s efforts were in vain. His prestige has been dented by this poor showing. The BJP clearly seems to have got something right. Despite having a very wayward looking strategy, it seems to have made a mark this time. The Congress’ promises of a Muslim quota within the OBC quota does not seem to have worked with this constituency, with Mulayam Singh walking away with the lion’s share of the Muslim vote – as in the past. It may have triggered an OBC backlash in favour of the BJP.