Saffron surge puts Delhi out of AAP's reach in fresh assembly polls

If assembly elections are held in Delhi now, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) would be no match for the BJP. That is what an analysis of the Lok Sabha election results by a psephologist indicates. In what has been a dramatic reversal of fortunes for AAP since its historic electoral debut in December 2013, when it won 28 out of the 70 assembly seats in Delhi, the party failed to win a single parliamentary seat in the Lok Sabha polls held last month. AAP lost to the BJP lost by a margin of over a lakh votes in all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi. The conclusion of the Lok Sabha election has revived questions about government formation in Delhi. The Delhi assembly has been in suspended animation since February, following the resignation of the minority government led by Arvind Kejriwal in February – a decision that has proved to be electorally extremely costly for AAP. Delhi’s voters, who gave AAP a dream chance to govern in December, turned decisively in favour of BJP in the Lok Sabha polls last month. So decisive was that shift that AAP lost its advantage to the BJP in 24 out of the 28 assembly seats that it had won in December. While the increase its vote-share from 29.3 percent (in the Assembly election) to 32.9 percent (in Lok Sabha) is of some consolation to AAP, psephologist Sanjay Kumar believes it will amount to little in terms of translating to seats if fresh assembly polls are held in Delhi. Kumar is Director at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). “The momentum in Delhi has completely changed now. (If elections are held in Delhi now), I would put BJP first and AAP at number 2. But I don’t think they (AAP) will be in a position to win large number of seats in Delhi. They would certainly not be in a position to form government,” says Kumar. [caption id=“attachment_1532407” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Kejriwal leaving Varanasi after the Lok Sabha loss. PTI[/caption] Why? The reason lies in the huge difference in the vote-share registered by BJP and AAP in the Lok Sabha polls. While BJP’s vote-share in Delhi stands at 46.4 percent, AAP’s stands at 32.9 percent – a difference of 13.5 percentage points. “It will be difficult for AAP to revive and close that gap in vote-share. Also, the BJP has done so well at the national level. That will further contribute to the performance of BJP (in the state),” says Kumar. Putting AAP’s increase in vote-share in perspective, Kumar adds, “It has increased because the Congress vote-share has declined (from 25 percent in assembly elections in 2013 to 15 percent now). And the decline in the vote-share of the Congress has benefited the BJP more and AAP less because AAP increased its vote-share by 3-4 percent  but the BJP increased its vote-share by 12 percent (to 46.4 percent) compared to assembly election. We should not look at AAP’s increase in support base in isolation but look at the difference between number 1 (BJP) and 2 (AAP). In the assembly election, the gap between 1 and 2 was 4 percent now the gap is more than 10 percent.” And it is a gap that translates to BJP’s near total domination of the 70 assembly seats in Delhi, leaving AAP with a lead in only 10 seats. So where does that leave the Congress? In not one of the 70 assembly seats that make up the seven parliamentary seats was the Congress in a lead position. The slide of the Congress party’s vote-share from 25 percent in the assembly election to a dismal 15 percent in the Lok Sabha election indicates that only has AAP managed to retain its hold over voters in the slum clusters and unauthorised colonies but also won over the Muslim voters from the Congress party. With its traditional support-base lost to AAP and its electoral performance at an all-time low, the collapse of the Congress in Delhi appears complete.