RSS love reduces, but without Modi BJP might have lost

Supporters of right wing groups may not care for Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s non adherence to their ideology, but one thing’s for certain if the BJP didn’t have him as their chief ministerial candidate the race might have been closer.

The CSDS post poll survey conducted for CNN-IBN and The Week, interestingly found that as many poll pundits have been saying, supporters of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and Vishwa Hindu Parishad have begun moving away from backing Modi and the BJP in the elections.

While in 2007, 71 percent of supporters of the two right wing groups were willing to back the BJP the number had fallen to 61 percent by this election. Most of the voters seem to have migrated to other alternatives like Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party and other parties and there has been a marginal increase in those willing to back Congress.

However, if Modi had not been the BJP candidate the party might have found its vote share in the state floundering. When asked if the BJP had picked someone else as their leader in this election to lead the campaign, the number of voters who would prefer to vote for someone else had increased by seven percent.

The campaign driven by Modi has apparently been synonymous with the support for the party and without him the party could have lost its supporters to other parties. The biggest shift in the voters, unsurprisingly, would have been among those who support the BJP. But evidence of the polarising factor of the Gujarat Chief Minister is that Congress supporters might have voted for the BJP or other parties if he had not been the Chief Ministerial candidate.

However, there is cause for concern for the BJP. They seem to be losing vote share among men and woman but they can take heart in the fact that the Congress is also losing vote share. Smaller parties like GPP and others are the ones gaining voters across the board.

And the BJP may be gaining vote share among its rural voters but its losing its urban voters fast. It has lost nine percent of its voters to other parties. Whether its an anti-incumbency factor isn’t clear though.

According to the CSDS survey though, expect the BJP to improve its tally in this election. The BJP should finish with between 129 to 139 seats, Congress should end up with around 41 seats and the other parties could end up with seven seats.

So while Modi may be home safe in this election, whether the BJP can be afford to elevate him to national politics is something they may have to wonder about.