Return of the NaMo nemesis: Forget Rahul, Nitish. It's LK Advani

Tired of the overdone and frankly lopsided Modi-Rahul faceoff, media pundits are turning their attention to worthier rivals to the BJP big man. Earlier this week, Firstpost contributor Vivek Kaul pointed to the growing possibility of a third or even fourth front. “Given that, the entire hungama about the race to the top between RaGa and NaMo doesn’t really hold. It is the regional satraps who hold the key to real power.” If the prospect of Modi going head-to-head with a ragtag assortment of Mamatas and Bijus holds little dramatic appeal, Open magazine’s Dhirendra K Jha offers us the “real Modi challenger.” Jha tees off Nitish Kumar’s controversial speech demanding a secular NDA nominee to make the case for LK Advani. Yes, Advani, “the architect of the Sangh Parivar’s Ayodhya movement,” to use Jha’s own words. It is the sign of these fickle times that the standard-bearer of saffron politics is now considered “moderate” in comparison to Modi. The very faux pas that alienated Advani from his RSS masters — most notoriously the Jinnah incident — helped soften his image. And Jha detects signs of a willingness to move left to outflank Modi with the approval of the JD-U:

JD-U spokesperson KC Tyagi, asked at a press conference who in the BJP could be likened to Vajpayee, had this to say: “We have earlier also fought elections under the leadership of Advani. So how can we say that we were wrong?” He also mentioned Advani’s speech at the BJP’s national executive gathering last month, in which the veteran leader referred to the party’s need of a charter for minorities, and said the JD-U was in agreement with him… JD-U leader Devesh Chandra Thakur was even more open on the question of Advani’s candidacy for the PM’s post. “The NDA contested under the leadership of LK Advani [in 2009]. I do not think there should be a problem for any NDA faction to go to polls under his leadership. Advani will definitely be more acceptable to most factions of the NDA,” he said after the party’s national executive meeting.

A possible Advani-JDU alliance is already creating fissures within the BJP leadership with the likes of Yashwant Sinha and Shivraj Chouhan using the Kumar speech to vocally advocate for the octogenarian. Shiv Sena’s antipathy toward a Modi leadership may also add to his strength.  Jha cites Mulayam Singh Yadav’s new-found respect for “Advaniji” as a sign of broader acceptability (though it is likely just plain old mischiefmaking, designed to make both make the Congress nervous and add fuel to BJP’s domestic fires). [caption id=“attachment_712740” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Narendra Modi with LK Advani in this file photo. PTI[/caption] All of Modi’s woes — be it the VHP, JDU or Advani — are but symptoms of a party seeking a separation from its Hindutva spouse without incurring the costs of divorce. The result is an absurd battle where each leader strives to appear more “acceptable” — read: less saffron —than the other without ceding their rightwing credentials. That said, the Congress party is in no better shape, saddled with a leader who doesn’t want to lead, and a government that has no will to govern. In the face of such universal disarray, anything seems possible. A recent Economic Times op-ed by Arvind Virmani laid out the head-spinning possibilities:

At this point, analysis suggests four potential outcomes. The first is a clear win for Congress ; Rahul becomes PM. The second, a clear win for BJP; Modi becomes PM. This third would be an uncertain win for the Congress with UPA III the largest pre-poll group. Rahul would take over the party presidentship and name a non-political PM. The last is an uncertain win for the BJP with NDA the largest prepoll group. L K Advani would become PM with Modi as deputy PM (economy) and Nitish Kumar as deputy PM (social inclusion).

Given the unlikelihood of a clear victory for either party what is assured is an outcome that will make no one happy. But the odds certainly favour LK Advani who will be vindicated whether the UPA returns, is replaced by a third front government, or an Advani-led coalition. Even he doesn’t make PM, he will have satisfaction of saying, “I told you so!” Read “Modi’s Real Challenger” on the Open magazine website .