Results 2014: Jaya makes history in TN, but won't matter in Delhi

By winning 37 out of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK has made history in the state as the only party that has won such a massive majority on its own.

With this spectacular victory, Jaya also almost fulfilled her long held wish that the AIADMK must win all the seats. However, she will be disappointed by the fact that her party cannot play any role in the formation of the next government as she had wanted.

The state had witnessed such landslide victories before, but they were all by multi-party fronts in partnership with either the Congress or the BJP.

Jaya, ever since she came to power in the state in 2011, had been exhorting her cadres to work towards such a victory so that her party can influence the formation of the next government; but the overwhelming victory of the BJP and the NDA have thwarted her plans. The only chance she has now is to be part of a super-NDA framework, if the BJP aims for one. Otherwise, she is most likely to be the third largest party in the parliament after the BJP and the Congress. Speaking to reporters in Chennai, she said the AIADMK “will play the role of a responsible political party”.

The choices before the AIADMK are either none or to be a friendly ally with the BJP given her good relations with the next prime minister Narendra Modi. Uncertain of who will form the next government at the Centre, she had chosen to keep her options open and hence contested in all the 39 seats alone. Seemingly, her calculation was to go with the the Third Front if the BJP didn’t make it, or go with the BJP if it’s closer to the half-way mark.

Obviously, she hadn’t anticipated the BJP and the NDA doing so well and hence took the risk of going it alone and play the kingmaker at the time of the government formation. After 1998, when she supported the AB Vajpayee government for a year, Jaya hadn’t been able to play a national role till now.

She saw success in one part of this game — namely contesting and trying to win all the seats. Had the NDA been short of a simple majority, her numbers would have been crucial.

In the past the AIADMK had been part of victories that were similar to its outcome now. In 1998, AIADMK-BJP alliance had won 30 seats while in 1991 it had won all the 39 seats in partnership with the Congress. In 1989 and 1984, the same combine had won 38 and 37 seats respectively. On most occasions, the AIADMK had contested parliament elections in partnership with the Congress.

The DMK, which has been decimated this time, too have seen such spectacular success in the past. In 2004, its front with the Congress swept the polls winning all the 39 seats. During the last elections in 2009, the front had won 27 seats.

Here’s a chart projecting seat shares in Tamil Nadu