The India Today-Karvy Insights opinion poll predicts that if the Assembly polls would be conducted in 2018, AIADMK would only get 26 percent vote share in the polls, cutting its vote share by half.
The opinion poll, which was conducted across 77 Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu, sought to predict what the result of the Assembly elections would be if would be if it was conducted in 2018. The next Tamil Nadu Assembly polls are actually due in 2021.
Over the last one year, Tamil Nadu has seen dramatic political changes. The turmoil in the AIADMK, issues with the RK Nagar bypolls and the entry of Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth in the fore are some of the many factors that have changed the political landscape in the southern state since the 2016 outcome.
As for the results of the polls, it predicts that the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) party would get just 68 seats, rounding up to a vote share of 26 percent. In contrast, the party won with a vote share of over 40 percent in the 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.
Regarding other parties in this hypothetical Assembly election in 2018, the poll states that the opposition DMK+ alliance — which includes Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Congress, and Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) — would get 130 seats with a vote share of 34 percent.
Perhaps the biggest winner of this poll turned out to be Tamil superstar Rajinikanth, which the poll predicted would win 33 seats with a vote share of 16 percent. This is despite the fact that the actor has not announced a formal party name yet and that he has not even begun campaigning.
— India Today (@IndiaToday) January 16, 2018
There was also no consensus as to who can be the true successor of J Jayalalithaa in AIADMK. Over 30 percent participants feel no one from the existing party leadership, which includes O Panneerselvam, EK Palaniswamy, TTV Dhinakaran (his name is also spelt as Dinakaran), Deepa Jayakumar, and Sasikala Natarajan, could truly inherit Jayalalithaa’s legacy in AIADMK.
Updated Date: Jan 16, 2018 22:35 PM