Purvanchalis, Sikhs and Muslim voters: Voter blocs that will determine the result in Delhi polls 2015

Muslim voters will play a crucial role, but have they switched to AAP? Although the Aam Aadmi Party quite boldly rejected the support offered by the Shahi Imam of the Jama Masjid in Delhi Syed Ahmed Bukhari, it needs no brainstorming to figure out that the Muslim community will play a crucial role when the numbers come out on Tuesday during the counting of votes. As predicted by most of the exit polls, the counting might confirm the near decimation of the Congress indicating to the fact that the party’s traditional base of Muslim voters could shift their allegiance to another party. In this case, the other party would be AAP as the community at large is not very comfortable with the Bharatiya Janata Party. [caption id=“attachment_2089615” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] PTI image[/caption] It is apparent that Muslim votes, especially in the 10-odd constituencies of the total 70, in all likelihood will influence the outcome and decide if Congress has been able to wean back the vote share it lost to AAP during the last two elections. In the last Assembly election in 2013, the Muslim dominated seats remained with the Congress. Of the eight seats that the grand old party retained, four were from Muslim dominated areas. According to 2011 census, Delhi has almost 12 percent of Muslim voters. There are five seats in the National Capital where Muslims account for almost or somewhere little over 40 percent of the total population and hence are able to swing results. These constituencies are Chandni Chowk, Matia Mahal, Ballimaran, Okhla and Seelampur. If AAP wins on Tuesday as the poll pundits have predicted, it would be clear that both the BJP and the Congress miss out on Muslim votes. The BJP could not win a single seat of the above-mentioned five in the 2013 Assembly elections here. The Congress won four while Matia Mahal went to Shoiab Iqbal (who fought on Janata Dal(United) ticket). Iqbal is now the Congress candidate from the same constituency. The swing of Muslim votes towards was witnessed in the last Lok Sabha poll itself. During the Lok Sabha 2014 election, Muslims voted for AAP in large numbers, which resulted in division of Muslim votes between AAP and Congress. In the second lot of Muslim constituencies are those where Muslims form between 30-40 percent of the total population. They are Mustafabad, Babarpur, Seemapuri, Shahdara and Rithala. These seats also witnessed division of votes in the Lok Sabha elections last year. Going through the post-poll polling pattern in 2013 and 2014 for Delhi, the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) found that in 2013 53 percent of the Muslim voters chose Congress. However, in 2014, this share came down to 39 percent for the Congress and a whopping 56 percent Muslims voted for AAP. This led to clear division of votes in some assembly constituencies. The CSDS survey revealed that while AAP and Congress were neck and neck among elderly Muslim voters in 2014, among young Muslims (18-35 years), AAP led the Congress by nearly 30 percentage points. With a decisive swing of Muslim voters towards it and possible fragmentation in the non-Muslim wards, AAP is likely to win most of the Muslim-concentrated seats in this election. Who have the Purvanchali voters voted for? Elections are about numbers and none can afford to dissatisfy the community with the largest chunk of voters. Probably this is a tough lesson that might be awaiting the BJP when the numbers sealed in EVMs become public. Accounting for nearly 35-40 lakh of the city’s 1.5 crore population, the numerically strong Purvanchali voters, comprising people from Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh, have the capacity to tilt the electoral balance in 20-25 seats. This figure is roughly two-third of the number of seats needed for majority in the 70-member state Assembly. The constituencies, where this segment is a deciding factor are Sangam Vihar, Palam, Vikaspuri, Uttam Nagar, Kirari, Burari, Rithala, Badarpur, Adarsh Nagar, Karawal Nagar, Badli, Kundli, Mustafabad, Laxmi Nagar, Trilokpuri, Patparganj, including others. Despite these overwhelming numbers, there is a possibility that BJP might have done a strategic mistake while projecting itself in these seats. The BJP, which had fielded five candidates from the region in 2013 elections, decreased the number to three that may cause the party a great loss. “Most of the seats with high concentration of Puvanchali voters will go to AAP this year as well because the BJP failed to give their due share to their representatives in ticket distribution,” said a senior leader of the Delhi BJP. [caption id=“attachment_2089619” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Tiwary has been at the forefront of the BJP’s campaign to woo the Purvanchali community. Ibnlive image[/caption] The Purvanchalis were once considered a loyal vote bank of the Congress but their favour started moving towards the Aam Aadmi Party in the Assembly election of November 2013. Although the BJP made efforts to snatch these voters this time from AAP by launching an aggressive campaign, the efforts could well remain short of desired results. The national party even roped in Bhojpuri actor and party MP Manoj Tiwari besides Poonam Azad, wife of former cricketer and Darbhanga MP Kirti Azad to campaign among the Purvanchalis. But how much this star power got converted into actual votes would be known by today noon. The saffron party tried to capitalise on the move to get Chhath — a major festival of Purvanchal — declared as public holiday, but it did not come up with a roadmap to solve the problems faced by the people from the region, the BJP leader said. Most of the Purvanchalis have migrated from their respective states as they do not have employment opportunities back home. Settled mostly in slums, which later become unauthorised colonies, this lot of population faces extreme difficulties in the form of severe water crisis, insufficient healthcare and proper shelter. In addition to that, Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP made deep inroads in these slum clusters by promising a better life if voted to power. Tired of the tried of the tested Congress and BJP it would not be surprising if the Purvanchalis agree with ‘Paanch chaal Kejriwal’. Most of the exit polls have already predicted a resounding victory for AAP and in a matter of hours it would be known if Congress and BJP will lick their wounds. The Punjabi community Delhi has more than 35 percent Punjabi voters and a majority government here is not possible without their support. Around 20 constituencies have 15-20 percent Punjabi votes. In eight seats, Punjabi voters account for more than 20 percent of the total voters. Sikh voters can make an impact the outcome in 18 of 70 constituencies and four seats are Sikh-dominated — Rajouri Garden, Hari Nagar, Kalkaji and Shahdara. [caption id=“attachment_2089621” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image. Reuters[/caption] In these four Sikh-dominated seats — Rajouri Garden, Hari Nagar, Kalkaji and Shahdara — the Akali Dal has fielded its candidates, though only one of them, last time’s winner Manjinder Singh Sirsa, contested under the party’s symbol. The rest contest under the symbol of coalition partner BJP. The entire Akali leadership has been in Delhi to woo not only the Sikhs, but the larger Punjabi community as well. For the Akalis, winning the four seats is important not only because it is still smarting from the BJP’s aggressive tone and tenor, but also because it sees in Delhi a chance to spread its electoral wings in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The slums of Delhi The 40 lakh people that populate the slums of Delhi reportedly constitute nearly 30 percent of the city’s vote share and while they have traditionally backed the Congress, the AAP has made steady inroads.  Situated across various constituencies in the national capital, and leaders of all parties have been wooing the voters from these groups. South Delhi has the highest number of slums, at 80,876 such homes in 13 assembly constituencies. However, that number swells to a whopping 3 lakh homes across 59 of the 70 constituencies in the national capital.  The BJP promised to redevelop jhuggi-jhopdi clusters while the AAP promised permanent housing to them in order to woo them.  The upper and lower caste The upper caste has traditionally be a vote bank of the BJP but the AAP has been steadily eating into it. The BJP counted on the vote of upper castes traditionally and according to a CSDS survey they constitute 40 percent of the total voters in the national capital. The CSDS survey says about 12 percent are Brahmins, 7 percent are Punjabi Khatris, 7 percent are Rajputs, 6 percent belong to the Vaishya (Bania) and Jain communities and 8 percent are from other upper castes. Among the upper caste communities that the BJP considered as a traditional vote bank were the Rajputs, Brahmins and Jains with almost 50 percent of the voters backing the party in the 2008 election. The party saw a erosion in the base in the 2013 assembly polls where the AAP ate into it, but had it firmly in its pocket when it came to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Similarly, the Congress enjoyed almost complete support from the lower castes in the 2008 and retained it to some extent in the 2013 election. It has since seen it eroded steadily to the AAP.