Post-poll survey: It’s touch-and-go in Himachal Pradesh

Gujarat more or less written off, the Congress may find some solace in tiny Himachal Pradesh. It’s locked in a close fight with the incumbent BJP and seems to have a small edge over its political rival in the hill state. Elections to the Himachal assembly were held on 4 November and the state registered a record turnout of 75 percent. While there’s no scientific way telling whether higher turnout translates into votes for or against the ruling dispensation, a post-poll survey conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, indicates that it might have worked against the ruling BJP. The survey puts the seat forecast for both parties in the range of 29-35, out of the total 68 seats.[caption id=“attachment_560621” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Congress president Sonia Gandhi. AFP[/caption] The survey was conducted between 7 and 14 November at 128 polling stations spread across 32 assembly constituencies. It involved 2,328 respondents constituting a wide cross-section of the population. The post-poll survey was conducted nearly three weeks after the completion of a pre-poll survey conducted by CSDS in mid-October. In 2007, the vote share of the BJP stood at 44 percent while that of the Congress at 39. According to the post-poll survey, the BJP might lose four percent of vote share and come down to 40 percent while the Congress is likely to gain two percent to climb up to 41 percent. This would be the closest contest in the history of assembly polls in the state in the last three decades. However, how this change reflects in seats gained or lost is a bit dicey. According to the findings of the survey, the satisfaction level with the BJP government headed by Prem Kumar Dhumal is high but it is no guarantee for re-election. In 2007, 67 percent of respondents had expressed satisfaction with the performance of the incumbent Congress government.Yet it lost the elections. As many as 64 percent of respondents in 2012 expressed satisfaction with the BJP government. In terms of popularity both Dhumal and Congress’s Virbhadra Singh stand equal. The corruption charges against the latter do not seem to have dented his popular appeal. According to the findings of the survey, the Congress is expected to make significant gains among Brahmins and the BJP among the OBCs. The Congress’s support among the Brahmins, who constitute nearly 20 percent of the state’s population, has gone up by 12 percentage points to 38 while it has declined 23 percent for the BJP. Among the OBCs, who constitute about 11 percent of the population, the BJP’s support is up 19 percentage points to 51, the Congress’s is down marginally by five percent.Not much change is visible in the preference of the numerically strong SC (25 percent) and Rajput (28 percent) electorate. Among the youngsters in the age group 18-25, the Congress is the preferred party, though not the overwhelming favourite. Forty-five percent of the respondents in this bracket voted for the Congress (up 10 points from 2007) while 34 percent backed the BJP (down 15 points). However, BJP is still the favourite among the 26-39 age group with 41 percent of the respondents backing the party. By all indications, it’s a neck and neck contest in Himachal Pradesh. If the Congress wins here it will have the some solace after being buffeted by bad news on the electoral front everywhere.