Poll politics: In 2012, stuck in the 1980s template

Manifestos are not worth the paper they are written on. No, we are not going into a cynical spiel on how parties routinely renege on the promises they make to the electorate in written words. This is about the existential dilemma in parties and consequently, electoral politics, which needs to be resolved at some point. There would be no way forward for the democracy or the parties, individually or collectively, with many fundamental questions remaining unsettled. Have a look at the manifestos and the absence of fresh ideas hits you in the face. All of them are busy segregating voters and treating them as isolated units for the voting exercise. There’s no common strand of thought which links all these units and which has the potential to develop into a coherent political plan of action or ideology. The manifestos make the parties look hopelessly out of touch with the times. Thus, in Uttar Pradesh the Congress keeps harping on the imaginary Muslim vote-bank when it is perfectly aware that the Muslim vote gets split in different ways in a multi-cornered contest; the BJP appeals to the highly dispersed Hindu voter and the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party to limited caste groups. This follows the electoral template of the 1970s and 1980s era politics, which holds partly redundant in 2012. What the manifestos reflect is the lack of understanding of the new electorate or the inability of parties to think beyond the template. [caption id=“attachment_198611” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Reuters”]  [/caption] The early 1990s saw the near simultaneous emergence of three powerful forces in the Indian electoral arena — one was caste politics, courtesy Mandalisation; the second, Hindutva politics, courtesy the Ram Mandir-Babri Masjid issue; and the third; the economic reforms. The first two fit well into the existing political template – these created new immediate challenges for parties but these were not too tough to get used to. By now, all parties have developed political responses to identity politics. The third one, the liberalisation of the economy, has been apolitical yet far more powerful in its impact on the society. Even more than 20 years after the economic reforms process started, parties are yet to fully  map its political dimensions. As it still remains in the area of the uncertain, no party is confident about articulating its position on the subject. When the electoral return from taking a stand is unclear, why invite a risk? This seems to be the thinking of the political class. Their play safe policy is reflected in the manifestos. Though the parties would be loathe to accept it, the process of reforms has created a new electorate, which is different in character from the traditional caste and community-centric ones. It does not identify too strongly with issues of identity; is aware of the opportunities available; and is focused on upward social mobility. This is the new middle class — if not in financial power then in the ambition to think big for itself — and uninhibited. The reforms have provided the glimpse of prosperity to many and made a generation realise that it is achievable, unlike earlier times. The impact of this class on electoral politics is not known yet. Probably it is too early for the group to solidify as a vote bank or articulate its demands in the language the politicians understand. But there’s little doubt that it is a huge chunk of voters the parties are yet to tap. The political template is yet to change to accommodate them. Identity politics, from the electoral perspective, is difficult to sustain for too long. Although it is still strong in the country and is unlikely to vanish in a hurry, politicians will need to find new groups and new voters after exhausting the option of exploiting the fractured society to the full. It is simply a political necessity for them. They have to connect to new people and find new constituents to beat competition which is getting tougher by the day. For now, they remain stuck, making manifestos just poll rhetoric in written words.