PMO-driven Modi sarkar may be stymied by the Supreme Court

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s choice of Cabinet members disappointed those who were expecting that ministers would be appointed purely on the basis of competence and experience of governance. Of course, there are Cabinet Ministers like Arun Jaitley, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Rajnath Singh, Sushma Swaraj, Kalraj Mishra and Nitin Gadkari who have had past experience of being part of governments at the central or state level. But many of the 45 odd ministers seem to have been chosen by Modi based on considerations of politics. This is not unusual as traditionally there has always been a strong element of political signalling in the way the Union Council of Ministers is chosen. This is particularly true in a Parliamentary system which seeks to give adequate representation in the government to states which return maximun elected representatives. So Modi has not been different from any other head of the government in the way he has chosen the Union Council of Ministers. [caption id=“attachment_1549163” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Narendra Modi in a file photo. AFP[/caption] Therefore Uttar Pradesh, which is primarily responsible for the BJP getting a majority of its own, has 8 ministers of varying social backgrounds. Modi has even included in the Cabinet a Jat leader who is an accused in the Muzaffarnagar riots and won possibly the most polarised election seen in recent times. Was this Modi’s way of saying thank you to the Jat community which has almost entirely deserted Ajit Singh and walked over to the BJP in Western UP? One really wonders what the 50,000 odd displaced Muslims in the Muzaffarnagar camps will expect from their new member of Parliament who now wields power at the Centre. Modi has also been careful in ensuring that some important portfolios like Human Resource Development(HRD), Power, Coal and Petroleum have gone to his loyalists who will hold independent charge. It seems Modi will gradually build a very strong secretariat at the PMO, with policy expertise coming from outside, which will constantly guide Ministers with independent charge. Recently Arun Shourie had hinted that Modi might opt for a PMO that works like the American Presidential secretariat which is full of professionals chosen by the President. They are not elected legislators. So Modi may drive a lot of policy making in critical areas through the specialists hired by the PMO. The BJP always gives education policy, which involves influencing young minds, a lot of importance. So we can expect Smriti Irani to be constantly guided by the PM on issues relating to changes in the education policy. Smriti will possibly be involved much more with implementation than policy making. HRD ministry has had stalwarts like Arjun Singh and Murli manohar Joshi in the past. Interestingly the important portfolio of Petroleum, which is politically very sensitive, has also been given to a relatively inexperienced Dharmendra Pradhan. This will also be driven from the PMO as this ministry involves oil pricing, subsidies to the poor and the controversial question of gas pricing which has claimed the heads of some petroleum ministers in the past. The PM will most likely deal with this matter directly. The all important portfolio of power and coal is with Piyush Goel who is known to have a good understanding of how the business works, given his past background as a chartered accountant and investment manager in the private sector. From a purely economic perspective Coal and Power are currently the most important portfolios. Modi had, in his campaign speeches, accused the UPA of making a mess of the power sector where over 25,000 mega watts of electricity generation capacity has got created with no coal supplies forthcoming because the UPA couldn’t give environmental clearances to new coal blocks. Besides, some coal blocks meant for power sector are subject of CBI probe. This is a big mess which can be resolved only if Modi personally intervenes. Piyush Goel can prove to be a good manager only if he gets full political backing from the Prime Minister. Modi will have to take into confidence the bureaucracy, Central Vigilance Commission, CAG and even the judiciary if he seriously wishes to untangle the coal block mess. The fact is the BJP, as opposition, had aided the gradual shifting of policy responsibility from the domain of a weak UPA government to various other regulators and the judiciary. Now the BJP will be at the receiving end of the same mess. It will have to reclaim the executive’s authority which will not happen overnight. The Supreme Court recently issued an order allowing the CBI to launch investigation against senior bureaucrats without seeking permission of the political authority. Earlier the Supreme Court had also directed the bureaucrats to put down all decisions in writing to make the political authority accountable. These two directives of the Supreme Court will ensure that the political masters cannot cut corners and will have to strictly follow the rulebook. For the Modi government, this will be the biggest challenge because politicians are traditionally used to issuing oral orders. This cannot happen any longer. One may add that the much touted Gujarat model of governance also depended on oral orders and short circuiting of elaborate procedures. On the macro-economic front, the biggest burden falls on Finance Minster Arun Jaitley who will have to tame persistent food inflation which had been the main cause of UPA’s massive defeat. In the immediate short term Jaitley will have to find the right balance between taming inflation and seek some interest rate relief from the RBI to revive growth and investment. There is already some murmur within the BJP that the RBI must cut interest rate substantially. BJP leaders have clarified they will not interfere with RBI’s autonomy. But in reality the RBI has to seek the finance minister’s advise. Like past finance ministers, Jaitley will also put pressure on RBI to cut rates. The BJP will focus much more on growth than inflation in the immediate future.