PM Modi's diwali visit to Kashmir: A view from Srinagar

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he would spend this Diwali in Srinagar. He has said that he “will be in Srinagar on Diwali, October 23 and will spend the day with our sisters and brothers affected by the unfortunate floods”. The statement comes in the wake of thumping electoral victories in Maharashtra and Haryana. There is obviously a connection here given that there is intense speculation that polls are likely to be held in December this year in Jammu and Kashmir. Modi –- puffed by success after success – wants to replicate this success in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The question is: will this exercise yield electoral dividends for Modi and his party? An answer to this question warrants decoding Modi’s statement and then arraying it against the ideology of Hindutva. Modi calls and refers to Kashmiris as ‘his brothers and sisters’ or in other words he is slotting himself on the side of the Muslims. (Kashmir , as is obvious and known, is a Muslim majority state). This is the same man who, during his campaign for the Parliamentary elections, wore all sorts of head gear but chose not to wear the traditional Muslim skull cap. The reasons for this were obvious: Modi was consolidating the Hindu vote across India in consonance with Hindutva’s ideological ‘Othering’ of Muslims in India, he would’ve loathed to offend and annoy his core supporters. The sister and mother organizations of the BJP -– the RSS and the VHP –- would also have taken umbrage over this. Given that the Muslim vote was divided or inchoate, Modi chose to pander to the Hindu vote and did not wear the skull cap. Why the change of heart now? [caption id=“attachment_1768007” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  PM Narendra Modi. Reuters[/caption] The answer is obvious: Modi wants to garner sympathy for himself by presenting himself as Kashmir’s and Kashmiris’ sympathizer. This is in the nature of a vote gathering exercise and is related to elections in the state. Will Kashmiris fall for this? No is the answer. The first question Kashmiris will ask is why now? Its been almost a month and a half since the flooding happened and life is limping back to normalcy in the state. Yes, there is immense relief and rehabilitation work to be done but the worst, in many sense, is over. An ancillary question that Kashmiris will ask is if Modi’s heart really beats for Kashmiris, then the time to share their sorrow and misery would have been on the day of Eid. Why didn’t the prime minister visit the state then? It’s not rocket science to understand the reasons. Modi would have angered and offended both his ideological mentors and supporters by visiting Kashmir on the Eid Al Adha. The contradictions inherent in this visit would have been manifold. So Modi chooses the option that may placate the Hindutva supporters given that he is visiting on Diwali. Kashmiris are smart and astute enough to see through the real agenda of Modi. The prime minister and his campaign managers, who did a deft and astute job during the parliamentary elections, are being over confident here. Kashmir is not UP; nor is it Haryana. It’s a different ball game here wherein the political dynamics operate according to a different set of assumptions and practices. Most likely, there will be a hartal on Modi’s visit and life will grind to a halt in Kashmir. Moreover, the consequences of Modi’s visit would be counter intuitive for the BJP and Modi. Kashmiris will intuitively grasp the nature and real agenda of the visit and view it as a cynical exercise aimed at reaping electoral dividends by emotionally gaming Kashmiris. Kashmir and Kashmiris do not need visits of this nature and it is about time that powers in the Indian political firmament stop reducing Kashmir to mere elections. Sobriety and prudence demands that a viable, long-term and lasting solution to the vexed issue be found – a solution that is win-win for all stakeholders. Paternalism and the politics of short termism has not really worked in Kashmir. What is needed is bold and beautiful statecraft and leadership; not electoral maneuvering. Modi and his party have been given a resounding mandate by the peoples of India. Let him use this mandate judiciously and let him bell the cat by injecting a fresh breath into the politics-within and without- of Kashmir. The politics of déjà vu will merely make Kashmiris more wary and cynical and view the Modi visit as another ploy in a series of the same. Modi should not repeat but make history.