PM Modi faces torrid Budget Session, he needs backup plans to get laws through

The Narendra Modi government will face a trial by fire in the budget session of parliament as there could be a major gang-up of opposition parties against its ordinances. Even outside Parliament, a storm is gathering, with Anna Hazare set to oppose the Land Acquisition ordinance and some elements of the Sangh parivar also planning to do the same.

Modi has been putting out the fires in many ways; by making his position clear on religious freedom the other day, by hobnobbing with Sharad Pawar in his Baramati base , and by attending Mulayam Singh’s Saifai bash. Wonder of wonders, there is even some backchannel talk with confidants of Sonia Gandhi.

However, while these important efforts, it would be naïve to believe that the opposition is in any mood to give the government’s legislative agenda an easy time. In fact, it is spoiling for a fight, and one cannot rule out a partial washout of the budget session in the Rajya Sabha, where the NDA is hopelessly outnumbered.

This means Modi also needs a plan B, and possibly a plan C, too.

The reason is not just the NDA’s poor numbers in the Rajya Sabha, but the probability of plain and simple obstructionism by a bloody-minded opposition. For example, the insurance bill can be endlessly bottled up in the Rajya Sabha, which is where it has been introduced. The coal mines bill can be delayed beyond the budget session even though the auctions have already begun. As for the Land Acquisition Act, it does not have any chance of passage in its present form, given that the Congress regards it as its crowning achievement.

So what can Plan B or C involve?

Plan B should involve getting the less problematic bills through first, leaving out the land bill for plan C, if need be.

In insurance, for example, which is stuck in the Rajya Sabha, the government should work out a compromise with the Congress to get it passed. The Congress needs an ego salve more than anything else, and this the BJP should be willing to give.

A second option should be to introduce a new insurance bill with cosmetic changes and let the one in the Rajya Sabha be withdrawn or die an unsung death.

On the coal mines bill, too, there could be serious opposition. The bill, which will enable private coal mining at some future point, is needed to enforce the Supreme Court’s orders in the coal blocks cancellation case. Over 200 blocks have been cancelled, and these can be auctioned only if the law is changed. The Supreme Court had said coal blocks cannot be given to private parties under the present law.

In theory, no party should object. But most of the coal auctions now underway will benefit largely BJP-ruled states (MP, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra). But West Bengal and Odisha also benefit. A deal, if any, would have to be done with the ruling parties in these states. But West Bengal is a doubtful ally, since Mamata Banerjee and the BJP are not even on talking terms.

The real possibility is to get all the bills passed in the Lok Sabha and send them to the Rajya Sabha. The Rajya Sabha has to modify, reject or pass them in six months. If all these key bills get passed in March in the Lok Sabha, we can expect them to be cleared by September, either by the Rajya Sabha itself or through a joint session of Parliament if the upper house rejects or modifies these bills.

Plan C, of course, has to be largely about the Land Acquisition Ordinance. The best course is to send it to a joint committee of Parliament, and wait for its report. This, the opposition, should not normally oppose.

But in the event even this does not happen, the best way would be to ask all BJP states to pass the law in their state legislatures and give them prompt presidential assent. Once some states pass the law, the others will face the threat of investments heading elsewhere. With its big majority, the BJP should be able to pass the law in Rajasthan, Gujarat, MP, and possibly Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Haryana and Jharkhand too. Odisha can presumably be coaxed to do the same.

For Modi, 2015 will be a testing time, having failed to get the tough laws passed during his honeymoon period. He will not have to stake his personal prestige to get things done. He has to stoop to conquer.