Pitru Paksha queers HP polls; Modi unfazed by poll dates

When the Election Commission announced its poll dates for Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, the incumbent Chief Ministers of these two BJP-ruled states were at work in their offices, possibly clearing files.

BJP insiders say this means neither of them was surprised by the Commission’s announcement. The commission’s model code of election conduct – no new announcements, no use of government machinery for political purposes, etc – starts kicking in as soon as the election schedule is announced.

The only unpleasant surprise is for Himachal - where the selection of candidates has to take place in the midst of Pitru Paksha - an inauspicious period in the Hindu calender when prayers are offered to departed relatives. Both Congress and BJP will be wondering who the period will be more inauspicious for. The Gujarat dates come well after Pitru Paksha ends.

In the past, leaders of many parties were caught by surprise in the midst of political activities by a surprise announcement of poll dates. But Narendra Modi, who had begun his political activities in September with the launch of his Vivekananda Vikas Yatra – part-funded by the state – apparently had an inkling about the EC’s announcement, which is why he was not on the yatra, but in office.

Once the code of conduct kicks in, party leaders using government machinery and resources have to suspend their activities midway. Official cars and helicopters have to be abandoned for party-provided cars, and steer clear of official engagements.

Modi has been on a month-long pre-poll Vivekananda Yatra. A senior Gujarat government functionary clarified that while the yatra’s logistical and related expenses were being borne by the party, the youth conclaves (where job opportunities are discussed) and cultural shows that have so far been an integral part of it were sponsored by the labour and culture departments of the state government.

Now, with election dates being announced, state-sponsored youth conclaves and cultural shows can no longer be held during the remaining part of the yatra.

Modi plans to resume his yatra tomorrow. Thanks to the yatra, Modi has established an early mover advantage vis-à-vis his main political rival. The Congress party kicked off its campaign today in Rajkot with party President Sonia Gandhi making only a muted and nuanced indirect attack against Modi.

Modi has been in power for the last 11 years and the BJP has been ruling Gujarat since 1995. The Congress has a rather difficult challenge ahead both in terms of fighting against a leader of Modi’s stature and the BJP’s organisational strength.

In sharp contrast to Gujarat, in Himachal Pradesh, where polling will take barely a month from now on 4 November, the campaigning is low key. Himachal has a two-party system, where the electorate tends to alternate between the Big Two, Congress and BJP. History is thus on the Congress’ side.

But history was overturned in neighbouring Punjab, which too had been following the same pattern till February this year. In March, the Akali Dal-BJP combine sprang a surprise by beating anti-incumbency and returning to power. Can Prem Kumar Dhumal do it for the BJP in Himachal?

The Congress would like to focus on Himachal as a win here would help counter the belief that the party is steadily losing public support due to corruption, price-rise and the recent diesel and LPG price hikes.

However, even though the fates of the Congress and BJP will be sealed on 4 November, when Himachal votes, the results will have to wait for a month-and-a-half more till 20 December, when the counting will take place after the Gujarat polls.

The Himachal poll schedule throws another interesting scenario. The nominations will begin on 10 October, with the last date being 17 October. It is no secret that politicians in general do not like to take fresh initiatives during Pitru Paksha. This period, which began on 1 October, will continue till 14 October, after which Navratra starts.

Pitru Paksha is one reason why the Union cabinet reshuffle has been postponed till the third week of October and Rahul Gandhi will also formally assume an elevated position some time after that date.

It would be of great interest to watch whether the two political parties will announce their candidates during Pitru Paksha or after, and also how many of them will file nominations during this period. In all probability, there could be a last-minute rush after the auspicious Navratra period starts. The BJP had already cleared some names on 28 September to beat the calendar.

One thing is sure. The much-hyped Kullu Dussehra in Himachal Pradesh is sure to don some political colours. So will be the Navratra festival in Gujarat.