Paswan, Rabri Devi, Rudy: Key battles in 5th phase polling in Bihar

The sun set on campaigning in Bihar for the 7 May polls when seven constituencies will go to polls in the fifth phase.

Over 1.08 crore electorate would cast their vote in 9804 polling stations to decide the fate of 118 candidates. With the close of polling in the seven seats, voting would be over in 34 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar.

Elaborate security arrangements have been made for Wednesday’s polling in the seven seats. The Indo-Nepal border in Bihar was sealed since majority of the seven constituencies are near it.

This round of elections will see many crucial fights like in Saran from where LJP President Ramvilas Paswan and RJD chief Lalu Prasad’s wife Rabri Devi are in the fray among 118 candidates.

Besides the Saran, parliamentary election would also be held in Hajipur (an SC reserved seat), Sheohar, Sitamarhi, Muzaffarpur, Maharajganj and Ujiyarpur seats. Polling would also be held in Chiraiya and Maharajganj assembly constituencies in this phase.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, of these seven seats, JD(U) won five while Saran and Maharajganj went to RJD.

With the fates of Ramvilas Paswan, Rabri Devi and Rajiv Pratap Rudy linked with these seats, senior leaders of all parties canvassed for their candidates.

BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi addressed election meetings at Ujiyarpur, Saran and Hajipur and set the pace. Senior party leader Sushma Swaraj also pitched in, as did Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

Congress President Sonia Gandhi addressed a rally at Muzaffarpur on the last day of campaigning on 5 May in favour of former union minister for state Akhilesh Prasad Singh.

Prior to her, Kapil Sibal and actor-Parliamentarian Raj Babbar addressed poll meetings, while RJD president Lalu Prasad and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar criss-crossed these constituencies a numerous times to bolster their parties’ chances.

The Candidates

In Saran, senior BJP leader Rajiv Pratap Rudy will face off against RJD’s Rabri Devi, former chief minister of Bihar and Lalu Yadav’s wife. In the 2009 polls, Lalu Yadav won the from Saran however changing equations are likely to make this a tough battle for Rabri Devi. As a report in Hindustan Times said: “Prasad’s ‘pocket borough’ for decades is under serious threat from wave triggered by the BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi. It has led to the consolidation of Muslim votes for the RJD, but split the young Yadavs on the development issue.”

Other candidates from Saran include BSP’s Balmukund Chauhan, JD(U)’s Saleem Parvez and AAP’s Parmatma Singh.

In Sheohar, sitting MP Rama Devi is contesting polls on a BJP ticket.

Wife of the gangster Brij Bihari Prasad who was killed years ago, Rama Devi is facing a tough fight from JD(U)’s lone Muslim face Shahid Ali Khan. Shahid Ali replaced Shabir Ali who was expelled from JD(U) after he praised Modi and his development work in Gujarat.

Facing them are Anwarul Haque from RJD, Sudhir Kumar Singh from BSP and AAP’s Shatrugan Sahu.

Another important contest will take place in Hajipur (an SC reserved seat) where LJP chief and six-time MP Ram Vilas Paswan is up against JD(U)’s Ram Sunder Das. Das, aged 93, won from Hajipur in 2009 and is one of the oldest candidates this Lok Sabha polls. LJP’s alliance with the BJP is likely to affect Paswan’s vote share, particularly with the Yadav’s reports the Indian Express. Other candidates include Congress’ Sanjeev Prasad Tony, BSP’s Dhaneshwar Ram, and AAP’s Sudhir Paswan.

In Sitamarhi, JD(U)’s sitting MP Dr Arjun Rai is up against former MP and RJD nominee Sita Ram Yadav and BJP backed Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) nominee Ram Kumar Sharma alias Ram Kumar Kushwaha. While the contest is likely to be between the three of them, AAP’s candidate Kishori Das, BSP’s Mahesh Kumar and SP’s Sayyad Abu Dauzana are also in the fray.

Arjun Rai will face a tough fight due to the BJP-JD(U) split, especially with the Congress-RJD alliance biting into the JD(U) vote share in this constituency. As the Times of India recently reported , “A large section of Muslim voters had supported the JD(U) MP Arjun Rai in the 2009 election but their inclination for Sita Ram Yadav of the RJD is quite visible. The Narendra Modi factor is also likely to hit the JD(U) nominee this time though Modi has not visited Sitamarhi so far.”

In Maharajganj, Janardan Singh Sigriwal, former labour resources minister is running on a BJP ticket against Prabhunath Singh of the RJD. Prabhunath Singh was recently booked for violating the Model Code of Conduct.

Facing them is AAP’s Reena Rani, Bhojpuri actress-turned-politician, JD(U)’s Manoranjan Singh Dhumal and Lalu Prasad’s notorious brother-in-law Sadhu Yadav. Sadhu Yadav, contesting as an independent candidate with several criminal cases pending against him, had initially declared that he would contest against Rabri Devi from Saran but later withdrew his nomination.

Muzaffarpur is likely to be a four way contest between BJP’s Ajay Nishad (son of Lok Sabha MP Jai Narain Nishad), Congress’ Akhilesh Pratap Singh, JD(U)’s Bijendra Chaudhary and AAP’s Dr. Prabhat Suman.

In Ujiarpur, is likely to be a five-way battle between BJP’s Nityanand Rai, RJD’s Alok Mehta, BSP’s Dharmendra Sahni, AAP’s Suresh Choudhary and JD(U)’s Ashwamedha Devi.

What the numbers are saying

Like in Sitamarhi, the BJP-JD(U) split is likely to play against Nitish this Lok Sabha elections in the state. As per a poll survey conducted by the Lokniti-CSDS-IBN National Tracker, the BJP-LJP alliance is likely to sweep the polls Bihar. The survey also predicts that the Congress-RJD alliance may win 28 percent of the vote share, eating into JD(U)’s vote share. Nitish’s political isolation is likely to reflect in the poll outcome despite doing well during the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

With inputs from PTI