Pakistan polls: Imran Khan, all hype or genuine game changer?

By Zia Khan Islamabad: As Pakistan inches closer to electing a new government this weekend, the element of unpredictability continues to haunt the country’s political landscape. What would have otherwise been a smooth return to power for two-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif looks an intense electoral battle ahead now. And the outcome of the historic elections to transfer power from one civilian administration to another for the first time in the country’s history marred by periodic military rules can at the best be a hung parliament with split mandate for several players. And one man who is behind this new power equation in Pakistan’s ‘convoluted’ politics is Imran Khan, the former cricketing star whose steep rise as a politician has surprised many in and outside the country. [caption id=“attachment_767259” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf chief Imran Khan. AFP[/caption] After a mediocre, struggling political career for close to a decade-and-a-half, Imran is posing a formidable challenge to Sharif whose two short stints in power in 90s ended in confrontation with the military. The Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) Khan established back in 1995-96 appears to be changing the traditional voting pattern across the country. What has conventionally been a two-way electoral fight between liberal leftists and right wing parties throughout 90s and beyond now appears to be a multidimensional contest with right vote divided among several key players. And the battle ground is mainland Punjab—the most prosperous and populous of four Pakistani provinces the military derives its political power from. Khan’s steep rise to popularity began from a public rally in the eastern city of Lahore—the bastion of Sharifs—back in October 2011 which attracted around 1,00,000 supporters, a crowd nobody had ever imagined he would pull. Since then there has been no looking back for the man who captained the Pakistani cricket team to a World Cup victory in 1992 in one of the rare glorious moments in the nation’s life. Spoiler at best While his supporters attribute the miracle run to his ‘charismatic’ personality, his critics suspect Khan is backed by the military to hinder Nawaz Sharif who is known for his stubbornness. “If you need to explain the rise of Imran, you better have to see it in the historic perspective…he is popular in Punjab only and that is what the military will never like to lose,” said Fida Khan, an Islamabad-based writer who has been covering all these issues for two decades now. “And then Nawaz Sharif as a powerful prime minister is a nightmare for the security establishment…They will certainly want somebody to keep him under pressure and Imran is that somebody. Nothing more than that. A spoiler at best.” With the rest of Pakistan predictable to go to certain political groups, it is Punjab that will cause major swing in election results. The power house for Sharif, the province has always been providing support to the military that is extremely unpopular in three other federating units. Imran’s political career has been full of controversies due to flip-flops on key issues. He once supported ousted military ruler Pervez Musharraf in seeking popular endorsement through a referendum in anticipations to become the prime minister. But he then turned against him when his hopes were dashed and Musharraf chose other politicians to work with. The contradiction in his personality, his critics say, is another reason that hindered his success. Apparently a moderate individual who had a playboy image during his days as cricketer, Imran represents the ultra-conservative ideology in politics thought to be close to that of Islamists. And even today eyebrows are raised when he denies the presence of Al Qaeda in Pakistan and advocates dialogue with the homegrown Taliban. “This is not a pragmatic way of looking at things…he needs to understand the gravity of the issues Pakistanis face today and should look for solutions that can work,” said Irfan Shahzad, a researcher at Islamabad-based Institute for Policy Studies (IPS), a conservative think tank that focuses on the militancy. “He has a dual personality…he never had the (ideological) clarity to attract the masses,” said Fida Khan, who has been covering Pakistan politics for many years. But now it looks Pakistanis representing middle classes in the semi-urban parts of the country have embraced him as someone who could steer their country out of the multiple crises—Al Qaeda violence emanating from the north, power outages haunting the economy and corruption—it finds itself in. His support base appears overwhelming across Pakistan when it comes to the number of people turning up at his rallies. “He is honest, sincere, patriotic and can handle pressure. He is one of few leaders in the country who has a vision,” said Salauddin Lughmani, a 35-year-old Information Technology professional from the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. Father of two, Lughmani lives in the United States but is deeply involved in the elections back home through friends and social media. He is hopeful nothing can stop Imran or PTI from an historic victory. But there are doubts whether the momentum Khan has generated through pulling crowds at election rallies could actually be translated into electoral gains. For Fida Khan, anything is hard to predict because the dynamics of constituency politics are different. “All turning up to listen to his speeches may not vote for him,” added Fida, explaining how clans, tribal affiliations and personal and social concerns are preferred over ideology when it comes to casting ballot. For him, Imran’s focus has been on generating a general affiliation which might not work in the end. Another thing that might hurt his bid to seek parliamentary seats is the lack of electable candidates—the ones who can win without any party support. In rural and semi-urban Pakistan especially in Punjab and Sindh where centuries-old feudal system is still a way of life, there are individuals who have been winning elections not because of affiliation with a certain party but due to their personal social influence. “That’s our weakest link but we hope to overcome it through a consistent campaign to tell people that they will have to rise against an outdated social system if they want change,” said Shafqat Mahmood, the information secretary for the PTI, who himself contesting for a Lahore constituency. Mahmood is convinced that Khan’s message of change and promise of creating a new Pakistan is being well received across all sections of the society. But those who have been watching the campaign from a narrow range said it doesn’t seem to be the case. Imran is popular only in a few urban centres, not in the rural Pakistan, said Qamar Zaman, an Islamabad-based writer and analyst, who just returned from a visit to Mianwali district in Punjab from where Imran himself contesting for a constituency. Another drawback that put him behind other front runners, including Nawaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), is that his group is not popular anywhere outside Punjab. “It is all Imran Khan in the central parts of Punjab and at a few places of Pukhtun north…but in rest of Pakistan, you can hardly see him,” explained Zaman. The PTI can at best become a spoiler or a pressure group in the next parliamentary equation. “Expecting anything more than that will be little too much,” he added. But Azam Khan Swati, a candidate for PTI in the north-western Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan, would not agree. “Like every party we have a stronghold as well…but we will make an impact all over Pakistan…let the time come,” Swati said as he gets ready to address another election in a far flung town.