Polls show AAP gaining: Delhi may be about to overturn old-style politics

It is still too early to declare which way the Delhi assembly polls are headed even though two opinion polls yesterday (2 February) offered pointers. But one thing is clear: the momentum is clearly with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) of Arvind Kejriwal. While the ABP News-Nielsen poll (with 6,396 respondents) gave AAP 35 seats (just at the half-way mark) to BJP’s 29 and Congress’s six, The Economic Times-TNS poll (with 3,260 respondents) said AAP was winning, giving it 36-40 seats against the BJP’s 28-32, with Congress headed for its lowest total of 2-4 seats. We should probably wait for further polls in the next day or two to confirm these trends, but both the polls released yesterday show a sharp reversal from earlier assumptions which showed the BJP ahead of AAP. [caption id=“attachment_2076857” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] AFP[/caption] The caveat we must add is this: opinion polls only tell us about voter intent; they don’t tell us if she will actually go and vote they way she promised. We will have to wait till we get the exit polls of 7 February to find out what may have happened. Who knows, the Amit Shah booth-level push of the last few days – which may not be fully captured in these polls - might bring us some surprises. But whichever way the Delhi voter finally swings, we can say with certainty that she is in a mood to take risks for change. This is the prime message of the swing indicated from BJP to AAP in the polls so far. While there is no need to call anyone’s victory or defeat in advance, there are other conclusions one can draw from these tentative poll findings. First, as seen in the Lok Sabha polls, campaigning is indeed turning presidential. The face of the campaign is as important as the substance of a party’s policies. Though this may not hold true in all states or all elections, the combination of a credible leader and acceptable policies makes for a decisive challenge. In Delhi, Kejriwal has become are more important factor than his party. Second, in AAP we are probably seeing the emergence of a new populist party that could conceivably threaten “secular” parties like the Congress, and possibly even some regional outfits. There are two indicators of this: the slow turning of the minority vote towards AAP in Delhi; and two, the withering of the Congress challenge in state after state. To be sure, AAP has always had the potential to shoot itself in the foot as it has no coherent ideology beyond populism. At some point, it may need to state what it stands for beyond anti-corruption. However, it is also possible that ideology itself may begin to matter less in future. Third, the traditional left-right-centre slotting of politics may be shifting in the era of personality-based elections. Narendra Modi was termed a right-wing politician, but his economics has barely gone beyond centrist approaches so far. Arvind Kejriwal recently told a TV channel that he is neither Left not Right. His approach is to find solutions to problems. The regional parties follow a mix of populism and crony socialism (or capitalism), mixed with dollops of casteism. The Delhi election may confirm the coming withering of ideology in party positions. Fourth, a new kind of politics is emerging where voters are seeking two opposite things from leaders: a top-down appeal that includes competence and charisma; and a bottom-up leader, who is able to articulate local concerns by being “one of them”. Modi represents the former, as people want competence in top positions, especially after seeing the problem with weak leadership under Manmohan Singh; Kejriwal represents the latter. His return from political demise owes entirely to the fact that he talks directly to people’s ordinary concerns and appears to be one of them. Future elections will see both types of leaders contesting for votes, and the pendulum may swing from one end to the other. But, clearly, parties have to learn to develop both kinds of connect. Fifth, for the BJP, the real challenge is not AAP, but in developing local leadership in various states to serve as the link between the top leadership and the grassroots. If the BJP loses Delhi, it will be precisely because the local unit was incapable of addressing the ordinary concerns of people despite having a well-respected leader at the top. To be sure, the Delhi BJP did understand that it was losing connect; this is why it was resisting early elections even after a thumping Lok Sabha win. The national leadership presumed that Modi’s appeal alone would be enough and didn’t pay attention till it was too late. Bringing in Kiran Bedi to counter Kejriwal’s popularity at a late stage backfired – not because she was the wrong choice, but because the party and Bedi did not have time to get used to one another. After the election, the party needs to rethink how it is going to rebuild its connect with the grassroots. Sixth, for the Congress, the choices are starker. AAP is ready to eat its lunch. The BJP has an established position and a strong cadre from the Sangh to define itself; the Congress has no way of reinventing itself as long as the Gandhi family is its only calling card. The sheer marginalisation of the party in state after state should tell the Gandhis that it is their presence that is holding back the Congress. The best thing they can do is withdraw from positions of power and oversee a transition to a new leadership through genuine elections. Seventh, the expected elbowing out of all regional parties in the Delhi election is a warning signal to them, too. Their vote has traditionally been based on caste and communal combinations. But as more young voters come to the fore, those affiliations are beginning to weaken. Modi proved that in the Lok Sabha elections and four state assembly elections that followed. The squashing of regional parties in Delhi between BJP and AAP suggests what could be in store in future state elections. To be sure, Delhi is not the template for Bihar or West Bengal, but the writing on the wall is clear. Future elections will see caste and communal affiliations play less of a role in determining the winner. Eighth, class is beginning to matter in elections. In Delhi, ABP News-Nielsen found that “AAP has maximum support among the lower income groups, the young, SC/ST/OBC and the Muslims.” The irony is that the Left is nowhere in the picture even as class comes to the fore. For decades, the Indian Left was in denial of caste and said class would trump all. And they saw the Karunanidhis, Mayawatis, Lalus and Mulayams walk away with caste votes. Now, when caste is beginning to matter less and class more, the Left is close to extinction. The moral of the story is this: the script of Indian politics has to be written in India. The Left paid the price for its pig-headedness in relying on Marx’s holy book for answers.